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Viewing cable 08ANTANANARIVO39, MALAGASY MFA VIEWS ON COMORAN IMPASSE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08ANTANANARIVO39 2008-01-16 14:12 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Antananarivo
VZCZCXRO3818
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0039 0161412
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 161412Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0869
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000039 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA 
DEPT PLEASE PASS TO USAID 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID MOPS PINR CN MA
SUBJECT: MALAGASY MFA VIEWS ON COMORAN IMPASSE 
 
1. (SBU)  Malagasy Foreign Affairs Secretary General Mboara 
Andriarimanana and Cabinet Director Michel Martin Rajoelina shared 
their views on the current Comoros impasse with the Ambassador 
January 16.  Both were very well "read-in" on the Comoran state of 
play, having followed reports from the Malagasy Consul in Moroni and 
the media.  They were very skeptical about chances for success if 
Union troops attempted to take Anjouan.  Sharing his estimate that 
Colonel Bacar had 800 troops, SG Mboara said if the Union army 
attacks Anjouan alone there will be significant casualties and 
failure.  In response to the Ambassador's comment that Sambi feels 
he also fails if he does nothing, Mboara insisted "diplomatic 
options must be exhausted." 
 
2. (SBU)  While acknowledging Comoros is a close neighbor with 
strong ties to the Comoros, our Malagasy colleagues advocated no 
policy other than observing the situation.  Both expressed genuine 
concern, however, hoping the African Union, South Africans, or 
others would eventually find a solution.  Raojolina speculated that 
"the whole thing could explode" just as the AU Summit takes place 
later this month.  He said that the only African nation with any 
capacity to help was South Africa, which could intervene militarily 
if it wanted to.  However, he noted that "Mbeki is in trouble now," 
and recalled FM Zuma's misstep when an AU Delegation was in Anjouan 
to confront Bacar last spring but she instead asked him what his 
grievances were.  This, in their view, had undermined the AU 
demarche and contributed to the present impasse.  They seemed to 
think that South Africa was now in the process of washing its hands 
of a tough problem on which they might feel they have already done 
enough. 
 
3. (SBU)  In discussing President Sambi's options, SG Mboara noted 
the possibility that Iran would be asked for help.  He said any role 
for Iran would be destabilizing to the region.  In particular, 
Mboara assessed, if Iran were to "save" Sambi by helping resolve the 
Anjouan impasse, it would not bode well for Madagascar's interests. 
Equally of concern, if Comoros falls apart over the Anjouan issue, 
Iran may step into the resultant void.  The SG reiterated the GOM's 
general stance on world issues that Madagascar falls in with the 
non-aligned and African consensus. 
 
4. (SBU)  COMMENT:  As an island, Madagascar tends to focus 
internally.  Our MFA colleagues demonstrated an impressive and 
current understanding of the state of play in the Comoros, and even 
how events there could affect Madagascar's interests.  However, they 
stopped well short of espousing any active policy role for 
Madagascar.  They did, however, express awareness of the current 
delicate situation and the need not to worsen the burden on Sambi by 
cracking down any further on Comoran students living with "irregular 
documents" in Madagascar.  END COMMENT. 
 
MARQUARDT