VZCZCXYZ0022
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0130 0280807
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 280807Z JAN 08
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7999
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7781
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 9042

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000130 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S. ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN 
 
 
Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies continued to focus 
 
news coverage January 26-28 on the upcoming presidential election 
and Taiwan's UN referendum; on the Cabinet's en masse resignation 
and possible cabinet reshuffle; and on the controversy over China's 
new air route west of the central line of the Taiwan Strait.  Both 
the pro-unification "United Daily News" and the centrist, 
KMT-leaning "China Times" carried the results of their latest 
opinion surveys on January 27, which indicated that supporters of 
the pan-Green have returned to the fold, and the gap between the 
KMT's Ma-Siew ticket and the DPP's Hsieh-Su ticket has narrowed.  In 
terms of editorials and commentaries, an op-ed in the 
mass-circulation "Apple Daily" discussed the U.S. economic slowdown 
and asked if the era featuring U.S. hegemony has come to an end.  An 
editorial in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
also chimed in, urging both the private and public sectors to 
"consider some countermeasures in the event of a looming US 
recession or global downturn."  End summary. 
 
A) "Has Our American Dream Come to an End?" 
 
Sisy Chen, a TV talk show hostess and commentator, wrote in her 
weekly column in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" [circulation: 
520,000] (1/26): 
 
"... It's not until the [explosion of] the sub-prime mortgage crisis 
this time that we were forced to stop at a certain point in time to 
ponder on a serious issue:  Namely, has our American dream already 
come to an end?  ...  The era of uncertainty for mankind has arrived 
again.  For the past century, we have constantly been dominated by 
concepts coined by and standing for the United States.  Yet when 
human society is likely moving toward a new destination, where the 
old hegemony is declining rapidly but a new hegemony is yet to take 
shape, human beings are not necessarily prepared for a generation 
without U.S. hegemony.  It is an obvious trend that the world will 
develop into a center shared by multiple powers, and the balance 
originally sustained by the five major centers -- the United States, 
China, Russia, Europe and Japan -- is vanishing.  No single 
individual is able to control or generate the speed for these powers 
that navigate through the perpetual flow of time.  The U.S. economic 
slide in 2008 and the transformation of the Chinese market starting 
from the second half of 2007 are evident proofs showing that no one 
can control or anticipate such changes. 
 
"It may not be a good development without U.S. hegemony; the 
collapse of [economic] confidence will remain in the [global] market 
for at least a long period of time.  But the absence of U.S. 
hegemony may not necessarily be a bad thing either; at least in a 
short period of time there will not be a hegemony that will 
willfully create any excuse to start a war like the one in Iraq. 
The era in which the United States monopolizes power has come to an 
end after all, and a new era that we are yet unable to imagine is 
now taking shape. ..." 
 
B) "Can Taiwan Weather the US Storm?" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (1/28): 
 
"... No one knows exactly how a slowing US economy would affect 
consumer spending there and to what extent a slowdown would drag 
down the world economy. But a global downturn is inevitable and no 
one is immune, not even China or India.  The situation can also 
become worse if the US government's US$150 billion economic stimulus 
package fails to kickstart the sagging US economy or the US Federal 
Reserve's emergency interest rate cuts last week fail to revive its 
economy. The US problem, as suggested by billionaire George Soros in 
an article published last week, is actually associated with a 
systemic problem -- an exploding credit expansion without regulatory 
checks. 
 
"The downside risk is greater and may have come earlier than 
expected. Taiwan's export sector will face more challenges this year 
as the economies in Europe have already started cooling down. 
Several computer and electronics makers will begin this week to 
report their fourth-quarter earnings and their prospects for the 
coming months. The government is also scheduled today to release its 
monthly index of leading economic indicators, a key measure of the 
economy's direction over the next three to six months. Both private 
and public sectors should consider some countermeasures in the event 
of the looming US recession or global downturn." 
 
YOUNG