VZCZCXYZ0008
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHDS #0233/01 0300957
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 300957Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9354
INFO RUEHAE/AMEMBASSY ASMARA 2097
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 8889
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 3345
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 3069
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 4147
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 3003
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 6360
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 7222
RUEHC/DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHDC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL//CCJ2/CCJ5/CCJS//
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS ADDIS ABABA 000233 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, DAS AF JSWAN, AF/E, AF/PDPA, OES, 
A/S PRM SAUERBREY, AND PRM/AFR 
AFR/AA KALMQUIST, WWARREN, JBORNS, KNELSON, CTHOMPSON 
DCHA/AA MHESS, GGOTTLIEB 
DCHA/OFDA KLUU, ACONVERY, CCHAN, PMORRIS, KCHANNELL 
DCHA/FFP JDWORKEN, PMOHAN, SANTHONY, PBERTOLIN 
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD 
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN, RTILSWORTH, AND LPANASUK 
 
NAIROBI FOR OFDA/ECARO GPLATT, RFFPO NCOX, USAID/EA 
ROME FOR AMBASSADOR, OHA, HSPANOS 
BRUSSELS FOR USEU PBROWN 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH, RMA 
USUN FOR FSHANKS 
NSC FOR PMARCHAN 
 
AIDAC 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID PHUM SENV EAGR PGOV ET
REF:  A) ADDIS 3644  B) ADDIS 0134 
SUBJECT: USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TEAM FIELD VISIT #3: 
LIVELIHOODS UPDATE 
 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  Between January 15 and 21, U.S. Government (USG) Humanitarian 
Assistance Team (HAT) in Ethiopia staff, including a USAID/Ethiopia 
senior policy advisor and a USAID/Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster 
Assistance (OFDA) agriculture and livestock advisor, traveled to 
Gode and Korahe zones in Somali Region as part of a third field 
visit to assess the current humanitarian situation and livelihood 
conditions.  USG HAT staff report that the flow of commercial goods 
from Somalia into urban centers within the conflict-affected areas 
of Somali Region has improved in recent weeks, but only limited 
commodities are reaching rural areas due to Government of the 
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (GFDRE) restrictions. 
According to local populations, imported and locally produced staple 
food prices are substantially higher than pre-conflict levels.  USG 
HAT staff note that livestock remain healthy in areas visited. 
However, USG HAT staff report that livestock conditions are expected 
to decline as the January to March jilal dry season progresses and 
pasture land diminishes.  In addition, livestock cross-border trade 
remains restricted.  USG HAT staff caution that the humanitarian 
situation in Somali Region could rapidly deteriorate as the dry 
season continues due to the cumulative impact of high staple food 
prices, diminishing pasture land, reduced availability of commercial 
goods, restrictions on livestock movement and trade, and 
inefficiencies related to food aid delivery.  End summary. 
 
--------------------- 
Commercial Food Trade 
--------------------- 
 
--Movement into Urban Centers -- 
 
¶2.  GFDRE-required military escorts for all commercial trucks moving 
within the conflict-affected areas continue to cause delays.  While 
commercial trucking with escorts has increased slightly over the 
past few months in areas visited, the number of trucks arriving in 
urban areas remains substantially lower compared to pre-conflict 
levels.  In Denan town, Gode Zone, a local non-governmental 
organization (NGO) estimated that the number of commercial trucks 
arriving per week has decreased from approximately seven to one 
truck per week.  In Kelafo town, Gode zone, transport workers 
estimated that commercial traffic remains at 50 percent of 
pre-conflict levels. 
 
--Movement into Rural Areas - 
 
¶3.  The movement of commercial food into rural areas within 
conflict-affected areas has been significantly reduced, according to 
local residents and NGOs operating in the region.  USG HAT staff 
received consistent reports that identified smuggling as the only 
mechanism for commercial food commodities to reach rural villages. 
Residents in Kebridehar town, Korahe Zone, reported that the 
military does not permit commercial trucks to off-load goods in 
villages outside district capitals, even if villages are located en 
route to final delivery destinations.  However, villagers living 
outside of conflict-affected areas did not report restrictions on 
the transport of food from main towns to rural areas.  For example, 
 
villagers interviewed along the Wabeshebele River in Kelafo 
District, Gode Zone, reported unrestricted movement between urban 
markets and rural villages. 
 
-- Cross-Border Trade Routes --- 
 
¶4.  Insecurity and pervasive Ethiopia National Defense Force (ENDF) 
presence in parts of Somali Region have disrupted traditional 
cross-border trade routes from Bosaso port in the semi-autonomous 
region of Puntland to Gode Zone, Somali Region, through Warder and 
Kebridehar zones, Somali Region.  Currently, trade routes have been 
diverted from Bosaso through Galcio and Beletweyne in Somalia to 
Gode Zone, resulting in increased prices associated with greater 
transport distances. 
 
-- Market Prices -- 
 
¶5.  In urban markets, both within and outside conflict-affected 
areas, USG HAT staff note that prices of food commodities have risen 
significantly from the previous year.  Residents consistently 
reported that price increases of imported staple foods were related 
to security operations and subsequent restrictions on commercial 
trade.  Residents attributed increased prices for locally produced 
crops, such as sorghum and maize, to the poor performance of 
seasonal rains and resulting reduced harvests. 
 
¶6.  USG HAT staff market surveys in Kebridehar, Gode, and Kelafo 
towns indicated that prices of most commodities had significantly 
increased compared to pre-conflict levels.  In some instances, local 
villagers, urban residents, and market traders reported an increase 
in prices three to four times higher than the previous year.  In 
Gode market, 50 kilograms (kg) of local maize cost approximately 150 
Ethiopian Birr (ETB) in 2008, compared to 40 ETB in 2007 and 20 
liters of oil currently costs approximately 225 ETB, compared to 110 
ETB in 2007.  In addition, 25 kg of flour has increased from 100 to 
200 ETB since 2007 and 25 kgs of rice has increased from 
approximately 100 to 185 ETB. 
 
--------------- 
Livestock Trade 
--------------- 
 
¶7.  Local NGOs, U.N. officials, and rural residents report severe 
restrictions on cross-border livestock trade into Somalia, resulting 
in a significant decline in livestock sales.  Due to the 
insignificant volume of cross-border livestock legally transported 
by military escort, traders often pay a third party to smuggle 
livestock into Somalia at great risk, according to residents of 
Kelafo town, Gode Zone.  In Denan town, Gode Zone, local NGO staff 
report a significant decline in the presence of livestock traders 
resulting from fears that the military will accuse traders of using 
funds to support the insurgency.  In addition, internal livestock 
markets in Gode and Korahe zones have experienced a significant 
decline in livestock prices and sales.  In Shinelle town, Gode Zone, 
pastoralists reported that prices for camels had fallen from a 
minimum of 1,700 ETB a year ago to a maximum of 1,000 ETB presently. 
 Pastoralists attributed the price reduction to an absence of buyers 
who are reluctant to operate due to insecurity and pervasive ENDF 
presence. 
 
 
---------------- 
Livestock Health 
---------------- 
 
¶8.  Despite the poor performance of 2007 deyr and gu rains in many 
areas, USG HAT staff noted that livestock appear in good condition. 
USG HAT staff did not observe any signs of increased animal 
mortality in areas visited, and no disease outbreaks were reported. 
In the town of Shinille, Gode Zone, pastoralists reported an unusual 
camel disease, as well as problems with external parasites, but no 
serious epidemics.  However, USG HAT staff caution that as the 
current jilal dry season progresses, and if USAID Famine Early 
Warning System Network (FEWS NET) predictions of poor April to June 
gu rains are correct, livestock health will deteriorate in the 
coming months.  In addition, internal GFDRE restrictions on 
livestock movement, which limit the ability of animals to access 
sufficient pasture and water, continue to exacerbate the situation. 
 
 
-- Disappearing Pasture Land -- 
 
¶9.  USG HAT staff report consistent concerns among pastoralists and 
agro-pastoralists interviewed regarding the availability of pasture 
lands.  USG HAT staff observed protracted stretches of dry pasture 
between Denan and Gode towns, Gode Zone, that are typically green at 
this time of year, according to local residents.  USG HAT staff also 
note reports of abnormal migration patterns among populations in 
Gode and Korahe zones in response to poor rains and pasture 
conditions.  In addition, USG HAT observed livestock-crowded 
watering points, including in Shinelle and El Har towns, Gode Zone. 
Villagers in El Har reported the convergence of large numbers of 
pastoralists at the area watering point, resulting in a significant 
increase in water collection practices, potentially depleting water 
table levels.  USG HAT staff note that large concentrations of 
livestock create increased opportunities for disease transmission, 
especially as animals weaken as the dry season progresses, and 
report limited availability of veterinary health services in the 
region. 
 
¶10.  USG HAT staff report that despite locust infestations in late 
2007 near Kebridehar town, Korahe Zone, and Gode Zone, the areas 
affected were fairly limited in size and would likely not seriously 
impact the ability of livestock to find sufficient fodder. 
 
----------------- 
Coping Mechanisms 
----------------- 
 
¶11.  In non-conflict-affected agro-pastoralist areas, USG HAT staff 
observed several coping mechanisms in response to the effects of 
drought, high staple food prices, and trade restrictions.  Coping 
mechanisms included reducing meal consumption to one meal per day, 
collecting firewood for sale, working as hired laborers on 
surrounding farms, and migrating to Bossaso, Galkayo, and Garowe in 
the semi-autonomous region of Puntland to access food aid and to 
work as migrant farmers.  In Afdu village, Gode Zone, villagers 
reported that 60 families out of a total of 200 in the village had 
migrated to Puntland.  In Tundo village, Gode Zone, villagers 
 
reported that 25 out of 375 families had migrated to Puntland. 
 
¶12.  In conflict-affected areas, pastoralist coping mechanisms 
include the increased slaughter and household consumption of 
livestock.  Pastoralists in Shinelle town, Gode Zone, report an 
increase in camel slaughter and the movement of urban and peri-urban 
residents to live with pastoralist relatives in order to access 
camel milk.  Consumption of livestock by-products has taken the 
place of sales as market access has declined.  In addition, 
pastoralist and agropastoralist populations are experiencing poor 
terms of trade as a result of reduced demand and price of livestock 
and higher than normal staple food prices.  In some cases, food 
assistance may address current gaps in purchasing power.  However, 
USG HAT staff emphasize that food assistance continues to be largely 
concentrated in district capitals, with limited assistance reaching 
rural and remote populations.  USG HAT staff also note pastoralist 
engagement in high-risk behavior, including smuggling animals out of 
restricted zones, or trying to illegally move food commodities from 
towns to rural areas, in response to current restrictions. 
 
------------------------------- 
Conclusions and Recommendations 
------------------------------- 
 
¶13.  USG HAT staff caution that humanitarian conditions could 
significantly deteriorate in the coming months for pastoralist and 
agropastoralist populations in Somali Region confronting steadily 
declining incomes and terms of trade as a result of current 
obstacles and restrictions on livestock movement and sales and 
commercial trade. USG HAT staff emphasize the need for improved 
access and an increase in commercial trade, including livestock and 
staple and non-staple commodities, to restore normal livelihood 
patterns in Somali Region.  Improvement in current restrictions, 
access, and security are pre-requisites for traditional livestock 
interventions to be effective, including commercial destocking and 
emergency provision of fodder and water. 
 
¶14.  However, in the current context, USG HAT note that targeted 
emergency interventions for vulnerable populations, including 
designated livestock trade routes, fodder production programs, and 
veterinary services could mitigate deteriorating livelihood 
conditions.  Rapid designation of potential trade routes would be 
required in the short-term to permit animals to be relocated to 
access pasture or trade markets before livestock conditions weaken, 
preventing relocation or sale.  Routes would also need to be 
carefully monitored and secured to prevent conflict or clashes.  In 
addition, USG HAT recommend the potential use of targeted 
high-nutrient fodder production programs to address reduced pasture 
availability and current restrictions on livestock movement.  Areas 
for fodder production include riverine areas, in addition to some 
agricultural areas, but USG HAT staff note associated opportunity 
costs for households related to planting fodder in place of staple 
crops.  USG HAT staff also recommend expanded animal health services 
with an emphasis on disease prevention, including vaccinations and 
parasite control, through training and equipping community animal 
health workers in the region. 
 
¶15.  USG HAT emphasize that the success of livelihood interventions 
within the conflict-affected areas of Somali Region is largely 
 
dependent on GFDRE cooperation.  Improvement in current livestock 
movement and trade restrictions is required to prevent further 
disruption to pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods and a 
deterioration of humanitarian conditions. 
 
 
 
YAMAMOTO