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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 ABUJA 000023 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA 
DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL KDEM KCOR KJUS NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: POL/ECON UPDATES FOR DECEMBER 2007 
 
THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR INTERNET 
DISTRIBUTION. 
 
------------------- 
2007 YEAR IN REVIEW 
--------------- 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Nigeria's fragile democracy continues to 
face several challenges.  Domestic and international 
observers assessed the April elections, which brought 
President Umaru Yar'Adua (of the People's Democratic Party, 
PDP) to power as marred by gross irregularities, intimidation 
of voters, and violence.  Over 1,200 petitions challenging 
the electoral results of the state, gubernatorial, and 
presidential elections were filed at election tribunals in 
June; four gubernatorial elections have been overturned. 
Progress on rule of law and anti-corruption efforts, 
including investigations of several former governors, remains 
lukewarm.  Post will report septel an assessment of 
Yar'Adua's six months in office and an analysis of the 
(on-going) Presidential Election Tribunal. 
 
¶2. (U) SUMMARY CONT'D: On the economic front, although 
Nigeria faces many challenges, including alleviation of the 
poverty afflicting the majority of the population, 
macroeconomic indications were positive for the second half 
of 2007.  Inflation stayed near 6 percent throughout that 
period.  The Central Bank estimated GDP growth at 6 percent 
for the third quarter of CY07, with non-oil growth at 9.5 
percent.  Foreign exchange reserves passed USD 50 billion in 
December.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------- 
POL/ECON UPDATE 
--------------- 
¶3. (U) Following is a joint Embassy Abuja-ConGen Lagos 
compilation of December 2007 political/economic highlights, 
which did not feature in our other reporting, covering: 
-- Election Tribunals & Electoral Reform 
-- Corruption 
-- Niger Delta 
-- National Assembly 
-- Human Rights 
-- Economic News: ECOWAS Tariff, Power, Aviation 
 
------------------------------------- 
ELECTION TRIBUNALS & ELECTORAL REFORM 
------------------------------------- 
¶4. (SBU) Nigerian press report on December 21 the Electoral 
Reform Panel is soliciting recommendations on how to improve 
Nigeria's electoral system from former heads of state, 
including former presidents Obasanjo and Shagari and former 
heads of state Abdulsalami Abubakar and Ibrahim Babangida. 
(Note: The 22-member Electoral Reform Panel, headed by former 
Chief Justice Muhammad Uwais, was inaugurated on August 28 by 
President Yar'Adua.  In November, President Yar'Adua ordered 
the suspension of public hearings before the Panel until 
after the Presidential Election Tribunal (which is 
entertaining cases against the President's April election) 
renders its ruling.  While the overall composition of the 
Panel has been praised as representative of a cross-section 
of Nigerian civil society, Uwais' appointment as chairman and 
the Panel's merely-advisory status have been criticized. End 
Note.) 
 
¶5. (U) On December 18, Justice Umaru Abdallahi, President of 
the Federal Court of Appeal (which appoints and supervises 
justices to the various presidential, gubernatorial, and 
state election tribunals throughout the country), alleged 
politicians were attempting to bribe election tribunal 
justices in an effort to sway outcomes.  Abdallahi will 
appoint justices in January to sit on the panels entertaining 
appeals to the decisions already rendered by certain 
gubernatorial election tribunals (in October and November, 
tribunals overturned the gubernatorial elections in Kogi, 
Kebbi, and Adamawa states, ordering fresh polls). 
 
¶6. (U) Action Congress presidential aspirant Atiku Abubakar, 
who filed a joint petition with All Nigeria People's Party 
candidate Muhammadu Buhari contesting President Yar'Adua's 
April election, petitioned the Supreme Court on December 2 to 
permit the use of oral testimony (and not simply witness 
 
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depositions to be remitted to the court).  In November, the 
Presidential Election Tribunal disallowed the use of oral 
testimony in Buhari's case. (With potentially several hundred 
witnesses to be called to the stand, the Tribunal feared a 
protracted trial.)  The Supreme Court is expected to rule 
January 17. 
 
---------- 
CORRUPTION 
---------- 
¶7. (SBU) On December 31, Independent and Corrupt Practices 
Commission (ICPC) announced it has commenced its probe of 31 
former governors, who served during former president 
Obasanjo's tenure (1999-2007).  (Note: Case files against the 
31 former governors had been remitted to former Chief Justice 
Muhammad Uwais while the governors (who enjoyed 
constitutional immunity from prosecution at the time) were in 
office.  On December 19, Chief Justice Idris Kutigi sent 
these case files (and 6 others against former governors) to 
the ICPC.  End Note.) 
 
¶8. (U) On December 27, Senator Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello, daughter 
of former president Obasanjo, appeared for interrogation at 
Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) headquarters 
over alleged contracts fraud.  An Austrian firm petitioned 
the EFCC and the Presidency to investigate contracts totaling 
USD 30 million the firm had disbursed to Obasanjo-Bello when 
she served as Commissioner in the Ogun State government. 
 
¶9. (U) Nigerian press report the Senate is set to investigate 
former president Obasanjo over a USD 500 million loan 
allegedly acquired from China to finance a rural telephone 
project during his tenure. 
 
¶10. (U) On December 22, the Ekiti High Court charged former 
Ekiti governor, Ayodele Fayose, with the 2005 murder of Tunde 
Omojola.  (Note: Omojola, a member of the National Conscience 
Party (NCP), was allegedly beaten to death while monitoring a 
local councillorship election being contested by his 
brother-in-law, Labaika Suleiman (also NCP), in May 2005. 
Reports suggest Fayose entered the polling station and 
ordered his armed guards to kill Omojola for attempting to 
stop Fayose from rigging the election. End Note.)  At the 
time the charge was filed, Fayose was incarcerated already 
after being denied bail by a Lagos High Court on a 51-charge 
count of fraud and money laundering.  Fayose is scheduled to 
appear in the Ekiti High Court on January 9 (for the murder 
trial) and the Lagos High Court on January 10 (for the 
corruption trial). 
 
¶11. (U) On December 17, a Federal Court denied bail to former 
Delta governor James Ibori (1999-2007), who was arrested by 
the EFCC on December 12 for allegedly stealing more than USD 
80 million in public funds.  Ibori's trial is scheduled to 
begin January 11.  (Note: Ibori is widely viewed as one of 
the principal financiers of Yar'Adua's election campaign. 
This case is being viewed as a litmus test for the 
President's stated commitment to tackling corruption. End 
Note.) 
 
¶12. (U) Attorney General (AG) Michael Aondoakaa announced on 
December 12 that the GON is considering merging the EFCC, 
ICPC, and the Code of Conduct Bureau due to considerable 
overlap in the mandates of all three anti-corruption bodies. 
The AG told the House Committee on Justice that such a merger 
would help avoid instances of double jeopardy and could 
streamline the government's anti-corruption efforts. 
 
----------- 
NIGER DELTA 
----------- 
¶13. (SBU) On December 26, armed gunmen attacked an US-flagged 
vessel M/V Hondo River while it was operating in Nigerian 
territorial waters.  The fifteen crewmembers on board 
including an AmCit were robbed and sustained 
non-life-threatening injuries.  The vessel arrived safely at 
its final port of call, Onne.  (Note: Hondo River is operated 
by Trico Marine and was providing services to ExxonMobil's 
near-offshore oilfields.  End Note.) 
 
¶14. (SBU) ConGen Lagos contact confirmed the December 19 
 
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release of Bayelsa Deputy Governor's father (following nine 
days in captivity) and suggested that Bayelsa militants (not 
the police or Joint Task Force (JTF)) apprehended the 
criminals responsible for the attack.  The militants may have 
turned over the Deputy Governor's father and the criminals to 
the state government as a gesture of goodwill.  Also, 
according to several press reports, father of Bayelsa State 
Accountant General Thomas Zidafamor was kidnapped on December 
19, shortly after the release of the Deputy Governor's 
father.  Press reports suggest the attack was pre-meditated. 
 
¶15. (SBU) According to security sources, an explosion 
occurred at a refinery jetty on December 19 at 0300 hours 
outside Port Harcourt (Rivers State).  "Serious shooting" was 
also reported by security sources in Okrika around 0500 hours. 
 
¶16. (SBU) A human rights contact reported an "awesome clash" 
between militants and the JTF in Okrika on December 19, 
reportedly resulting in damage to a jetty adjacent to the 
Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) premises and 
the death of at least three individuals.  Nigerian press 
report criminal leader Ateke Tom (of Rivers State) claimed 
responsibility for the attack, reportedly in retaliation for 
a JTF attack on his base in Okrika.  Tom publicly announced 
his actions were "predicated on the general lack of 
confidence in the presidential-brokered peace." 
 
¶17. (U) Bayelsa militants publicly renounced negotiations 
with the GON, but are reportedly maintaining positive 
relations with Bayelsa State Government.  Meanwhile, 
spokesman for the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger 
Delta (MEND) Jomo Gbomo claimed MEND did not support the 
militants' December 6 signing of the Bayelsa State-backed 
Bayelsa Peace Conference and Agreement. 
 
----------------- 
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
----------------- 
¶18. (U) On December 30, Speaker of the House of 
Representatives Oladimeji Bankole said the House will 
determine whether due process was followed when the Economic 
Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) placed Chairman Nuhu 
Ribadu on sabbatical.  (Note: On December 27, the EFCC 
announced Ribadu is being sent to the Nigerian Institute for 
Policy and Strategic Studies in Plateau State to begin a 
10-month training course. The GON endorsed the sabbatical on 
December 31. End Note.) 
 
¶19. (U) During its annual budget review, the Senate 
Appropriations Committee discovered that since 2004 several 
ministries have been diverting government funds into the 
private bank accounts of top government officials.  The House 
was scheduled to finalize the budget on December 27; however, 
the House Appropriations Committee accused the GON of 
"purposely withholding" necessary information concerning 
contracts, benchmarks, and surplus funds (dating back to 
2005).  Passage of the budget will top the National 
Assembly's agenda when it reconvenes January 9. 
 
------------ 
HUMAN RIGHTS 
------------ 
¶20. (U) In a December 17 statement, Amnesty International 
(AI) accused the GON of illegally executing seven prisoners 
in the last two years, claiming defendants lacked legal 
representation or necessary resources to file appeals.  The 
seven individuals were convicted of armed robbery in the 
northern state of Kano, and sentenced to death.  While Kano 
governor Ibrahim Shekarau endorsed the death sentences, the 
seven were moved to other prisons in the country and later 
hanged.  Nigerian human rights attorneys have cast doubt on 
AI's accusations, asserting the cases had followed due 
process. 
 
¶21. (SBU) On December 11, the Abuja Court of Appeal ruled the 
Public Order Act of 1990 infringed upon fundamental human 
rights and that public gatherings no longer required permits. 
 Inspector General of Police said the Nigerian Police Force 
(NPF) will challenge the decision at the Supreme Court. 
(Note: The NPF frequently cites the Act to forcibly disband 
public gatherings critical of the government. End Note.) 
 
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¶22. (U) The Inspector General of Police admitted that members 
of the Nigerian Police Force killed 785 suspected armed 
robbers from June-September 2007.  The GON also publicly 
stated that police had killed at least 8,564 individuals 
between 2000 and 2007. 
 
------------- 
ECONOMIC NEWS 
------------- 
¶23. (SBU) Finance Minister Usman announced the suspension of 
the ECOWAS Common External Tariff (CET) on December 14. 
While Usman said Nigeria is still committed to the CET in the 
long run, the GON reached a deadlock with ECOWAS trading 
partners regarding which products could qualify for "Type B" 
exceptions or be subject to 50 percent duties.  (Comment: 
Vested interests are continuing to keep high tariffs and 
import bans in place, despite their negative impact in terms 
of customs corruption, high prices to consumers and for 
factors of production, and continuation of a system based on 
favoritism and connections rather than creating conditions 
for broader economic participation and growth.  End Comment.) 
 
 
¶24. (U) Nigeria's electricity woes continue.  To meet 
projected national demand by 2010, the GON requires an 
estimated USD 13 billion (an amount greater than the GON's 
2008 budget).  The Nigerian Electricity Regulation Commission 
(NERC) and National Electric Power Authority forecast the 
demand for electricity to exceed 16,000 megawatts by 2010. 
NERC has agreed to develop a paper with Post that will detail 
the impediments to growth and ways forward to alleviate the 
current power crisis and meet the 2010 demand goal. 
 
¶25. (U) Following the December 21 announcement that several 
Nigerian airlines had secured a waiver to operate flights 
into the United States, Harold Demurin, Director-General of 
the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority, informed that Nigerian 
carriers Arik, Virgin Nigeria, and Bellview Airlines were in 
the process of leasing aircraft from US-designated Category 
One countries.  Demurin expects to begin operations from 
Lagos to the US on these carriers by mid-2008.  (Note: North 
American Airlines currently operates three round-trip 
Lagos-New York flights per week.  Delta Airlines commenced 
operations between Atlanta and Lagos earlier this month.  The 
safety of Nigerian-operated aircraft has been the major 
hurdle precluding Nigerian airlines from flying into the US. 
Facilitating travel between the US and Nigeria, particularly 
through direct flights, is key to improving trade and 
tourism.  End Note.) 
 
¶26. (U) Lagos Governor Babatunde Fashola presented to the 
State House Assembly an USD 3.5 billion budget, including USD 
2.3 billion for capital expenditures.  The (unfortunately) 
named "Great Leap" budget is designed to tackle some of 
Lagos's major problems, including deteriorating 
infrastructure, poor sanitation, and education.  Fashola 
hailed the budget as a departure from the traditional 
emphasis on current spending; however, reaction from local 
experts and the general public has been mixed.  While 
encouraged by the governor's apparent interest in long term 
planning, most local observers are maintaining a wait-and-see 
attitude. 
 
--------------------- 
OTHER NOTEWORTHY NEWS 
--------------------- 
¶27. (U) In a televised Christmas address, President Yar'Adua 
thanked the people of Nigeria for keeping faith in his 
administration over the past seven months.  Yar'Adua stated 
the government will ensure more visible progress towards the 
implementation of his Seven Point Plan in 2008.  (Note: On 
August 1, Yar'Adua outlined his Seven Point Plan to address 
the power and energy sector, food security and agriculture, 
unemployment, mass transportation, land reform, security 
(high crime, Niger Delta), and education.  End Note.)  The 
President also encouraged Nigerians to incorporate godliness, 
brotherly love, and honesty into their daily lives and said 
his administration will be counting on the goodwill, support, 
and cooperation of the Nigerian people to help realize a 
strong, united, and prosperous nation. 
 
ABUJA 00000023  005 OF 005 
 
 
 
¶28. (U) On December 23, Nigerian press report over 5,000 
Nigerian peace-keeping troops, currently serving in Darfur, 
have yet to be paid most of their allowances (approximately 
USD 8.5 million). 
 
¶29. (SBU) The ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) national 
convention, initially scheduled for December and later 
postponed to January, is now expected to take place April 
¶2008.  Influential positions, including party chairman, will 
be decided at the convention.  Rumors have been circulating 
that the convention is being postponed until the Presidential 
Election Tribunal rules on President Yar'Adua's April 
election.  As well, the campaigns for PDP chairman appear in 
full swing, with former Senate President (2000-2003) Pius 
Anyim emerging as a favorite to challenge former Ebonyi 
governor (1999-2007) and reported Obasanjo-loyalist Sam Egwu 
for the coveted position. 
 
¶30. (U) Following President Yar'Adua's December working visit 
to Washington, the GON is sending Special Advisor for Poverty 
Eradication (cabinet-level) to Washington January 8-11 to 
obtain additional information about microfinance institutions 
and their relevance to Nigeria.  The visit comes on the heels 
of Yar'Adua's attendance at the Academy for Educational 
Development-sponsored civil society roundtable in December. 
SANDERS