VZCZCXRO8435
RR RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHYE #1413/01 3450617
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 110617Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6718
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001413 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CARC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIA'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE SLATE NOW SET 
 
 
YEREVAN 00001413  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) December 6 was the nomination deadline for Armenian 
presidential candidates.  Nine persons have been nominated to 
participate in the February 19, 2008 election.  In addition to Prime 
Minister Serzh Sargsian and ex-president Levon Ter-Petrossian, the 
widely acknowledged front-runners, there are several candidates 
whose nominations have raised eyebrows.  Below is a full list, in 
roughly descending order of seriousness/relevance: 
 
THE FRONT-RUNNERS 
------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  Currently expected to be the last two standing for the 
run-off election round: PM Serzh Sargsian and ex-President Levon 
Ter-Petrossian (LTP). 
 
-- Serzh Sargsian:  nominated by the ruling Republican party.  As 
Prime Minister and acknowledged front-runner in the race, Sargsian 
also enjoys the support of the Republican Party's ruling coalition 
partner, Prosperous Armenia, as well as a number of marginal 
parties. 
 
-- Levon Ter-Petrossian:  self-nominated.  Armenia's first president 
following independence in 1991, Ter-Petrosyan enjoys the support of 
the Armenian National Movement, the strident opposition Republic 
Party, the People's Party of Armenia and a number of small 
opposition parties and other supporters.  LTP seems the strongest 
opposition candidate, but ranks far behind Sargsian in opinion 
polls. 
 
THE DEAL-MAKERS 
--------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The following candidates almost certainly will not win the 
presidency, but each commands sufficient following to be a player in 
political deal-making.  Probably at least one, and more likely at 
least two, of these candidates would have to stay in the race 
through February 19, in order to force a run-off election, which the 
PM would probably prefer to avoid.  (NOTE:  The third figure we 
might otherwise place in this category, former AmCit Raffi 
Hovhanissian, is ineligible to run, lacking ten years of Armenian 
citizenship.  His role in the upcoming race remains unclear.  END 
NOTE) 
 
-- Artur Baghdassarian:  the former Speaker of the National Assembly 
(NA) was nominated by his Rule of Law party, the senior (by one 
seat) opposition party inside the NA.  A key question is whether 
Baghdassarian would realize his best possible deal before or after 
the first-round election. 
 
-- Vahan Hovhannisian:  the senior Armenian Revolutionary Federation 
("Dashnaksutyun") official in government, Hovhannisian is one of two 
deputy speakers of the NA.  The ARF is probably good for about eight 
to fifteen percent of the vote, as usual. 
 
YESTERDAY'S NEWS 
---------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU)  The following two are well-known political figures, whose 
best political days seem to be behind them. 
 
-- Artashes Geghamian:  the former (Soviet era) Yerevan mayor was 
nominated by his National Unity Party (also sometimes translated as 
National Accord).  Geghamian's party was ignominiously thrashed 
during the May 2007 parliament election, demonstrating that his 
traditional popularity with pensioners has eroded considerably. 
Geghamian's genuine political independence and opposition 
credibility have been widely questioned. 
 
-- Vazgen Manukian:  nominated by his National Democratic Union 
party, Manukian's service under LTP, first as prime minister and 
later defense minister (for at least five minutes each), as well as 
his experience having the 1996 presidential election stolen from him 
by LTP, left him with an inflated sense of his rightful place in the 
Armenian political firmament.  Armenian voters have long since tired 
of him.  Some analysts had hypothesized he could be significant if 
he were to support LTP, as this would signify a kind of absolution 
for LTP's past sins.  Manukian seems both disinterested in forgiving 
LTP, and doggedly determined to run. 
 
-- Tigran Karapetyan: nominated by the party he leads, the 
Democratic party.  He owns the generally pro-governmental ALM TV, 
the existence of which may be about the only reason the 
idiosyncratic politician is a household name.  He is quirkily famous 
for inviting village-dwellers to sing on his TV network, which has 
garnered him a certain following among the rural poor. 
 
WHO ARE YOU, AGAIN? 
------------------- 
 
YEREVAN 00001413  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) The truly obscure: 
 
-- Aram Harutyunyan:  nominated by his obscure National Accord Party 
(not to be confused with Geghamian's similarly-named party), which 
appears only during presidential elections.  In 2003, he collected a 
whopping 1,272 votes. 
 
-- Arman Melikyan:  self-nominated.  He served as a former adviser 
to the Nagorno-Karabakh "President" Bako Sahakyan, and once as 
"Foreign Minister" of Nagorno-Karabakh.  Perhaps the greatest 
surprise of the season (besides the re-emergence of ex-President 
Levon Ter-Petrosyan), Melikyan has never before participated in 
Armenian politics. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Armenia's ex-boxing champion Israel Hakobkokhyan, whose 
farcical public appeal to President Kocharian (the "King of All 
Armenians") for financial support had attracted wry media attention, 
dropped out of the race, citing his inability to raise the eight 
million AMD (approximately USD 25,000) registration fee required of 
presidential candidates.  Armenian oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan, head of 
the Properous Armenia party and confidant of President Kocharyan, 
expressed willingness to give Hakobkokhyan the money.  The ex-champ 
refused the offer, however, saying his true ambition all along had 
been to raise the money from the Armenian people by pawning his 
boxing medals.