VZCZCXRO0992
PP RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
DE RUEHWR #2369/01 3471444
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 131444Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY WARSAW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5634
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES
RUEHSK/AMEMBASSY MINSK 3501
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 2731
RUEHKW/AMCONSUL KRAKOW 1931
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 002369 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR ETRD ECON PREL PL RU
SUBJECT: RUSSIA LIFTS BAN ON POLISH MEAT 
 
WARSAW 00002369  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary:  Polish and Russian Ministers of 
Agriculture have announced that next week the two-year old 
Russian ban on imports of fresh meat from Poland will be 
lifted, removing a major trade irritant.  Thanks to strong 
demand, trade levels should quickly rebound.  The Russian 
embargo on poultry and selected plant products remains in 
place.  Resolving the meat ban is a high profile win for the 
Tusk government's strategy of seeking a renewed constructive 
dialogue with Russia.  End summary. 
 
--------------------- 
Meat Ban To Be Lifted 
--------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U)  On December 12 the Polish Minister of Agriculture, 
Marek Sawicki, and the Russian Minister of Agriculture, 
Aleksey Gordeyev, announced in Moscow that as of next week 
the Russian ban on Polish beef and pork which began in 
November 2005 will be lifted.  Next week, Polish and Russian 
Veterinary authorities will sign an agreement in Kaliningrad 
lifting the ban with immediate effect. 
 
¶3.  (U)  Russian authorities have just concluded a routine 
inspection of facilities and agreed that additional 
inspections are unnecessary.  Because of the strong demand 
from Russia, sales should recover quickly to pre-embargo 
levels. Post estimates that Poland will export USD50 million 
in chilled and frozen pork and beef to Russia in 2008, which 
would make Russia the largest export market for unprocessed 
Polish red meat. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Effects of the Ban On Trade With Russia 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U)  The ban imposed by Russia has been in place for over 
two years and has adversely affected Polish exports of pork 
and beef.  In late 2005 the ban had only a limited impact on 
the Polish pork industry because it was a period of pork 
shortages and strong export demand.  However, the situation 
changed in late 2006 and 2007 when pork supplies increased 
and export markets shrunk due to a pork surplus in the 
European Union.  The ban had a strong impact on overall 
exports of Polish agricultural products to Russia in 2006. 
However, its impact diminished in 2007 because of growing 
Polish dairy exports to Russia. 
 
¶5.  (U)  Although Russia was a major market for fresh and 
frozen unprocessed pork and beef before the ban, it is a less 
important market for these products when including all 
processed meat exports.  In 2004 the Russian share of Polish 
meat exports of both processed and unprocessed pork and beef 
were only 11 and 2 percent, respectively.  However, exports 
to Russia were important for the Polish meat industry because 
the type of cuts that were most popular in Russia, such as 
chilled pork halves, were not popular in other markets. 
 
------------------------------ 
Limited Effect on U.S. Markets 
------------------------------ 
 
¶6.  (U)  The current low farm-gate prices and oversupply of 
pork in Poland, in addition to the export subsidies recently 
announced by the European Union, will bolster Polish pork 
exports in 2008. In addition, traders speculate that the 
opening of the Russian market may lead to the reopening of 
the market in Belarus to Polish meat exports, a market 
similar to Russia in size and type.  The end of the Russian 
embargo will not limit Polish meat exports to other EU Member 
States and the United States, because these consumers demand 
different types of cuts and meat products. 
 
------------------------------ 
Other Embargoes Still In Place 
------------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (U)  Despite the end of the red meat ban, the embargo on 
both poultry meat and select plant products to Russia (which 
also began in November 2005) is still in place.  The next 
meeting between the Polish and Russian Ministers of 
Agriculture is expected to occur in January 2008 in Berlin 
during the "Green Week" trade fair.  During this meeting a 
new agreement opening the Russian market to Polish plant 
products may be signed. 
 
WARSAW 00002369  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
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Comment 
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¶8.  (SBU) The Russian meat ban has been a charged bilateral 
irritant for over two years, and emblematic of the chilly 
relationship between the former Kaczynski government and 
Moscow.  The lifting of the ban is a high profile political 
win for new PM Donald Tusk, and signals an improvement in 
relations between Poland and Russia.  While not as 
reflexively anti-Russian as its predecessor, this government 
remains essentially suspicious of Moscow, although happy to 
provide Russia something more to chew on. 
ASHE