VZCZCXRO4860
RR RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD RUEHVC
DE RUEHUM #0679/01 3400213
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 060213Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY ULAANBAATAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1699
INFO RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 3055
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 2750
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 0196
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 1985
RUEHAST/AMEMBASSY ALMATY 0177
RUEHVK/AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK 0187
RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE
RUEHAT/AMCONSUL AMSTERDAM 0001
RUEHMT/AMCONSUL MONTREAL 0010
RUEHJO/AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG 0007
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0526
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0333
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ EPA WASHINGTON DC 0022
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ULAANBAATAR 000679 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/CM and OES 
STATE PASS USTR FOR WINELAND 
JAKARTA PLEASE PASS TO BALI CLIMATE CHANGE USDEL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV ENRG ECON PREL MG
SUBJECT: MONGOLIANS BELIEVE CLIMATE CHANGE WREAKS HAVOC ON MONGOLIA 
 
 
ULAANBAATA 00000679  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
¶1. (SBU)  SUMMARY: Far from being a theoretical problem, climate 
change is battering Mongolia's environment and eco-systems, with 
consequences far beyond its own borders. This is a commonly held 
view nation-wide and across the social, economic and political 
spectrum -- from the President to nomadic herders in the 
countryside. Mongolian and international scientists and Mongolian 
citizens report its rivers and lakes are drying up.  Sand is being 
blown as far away as Nevada, according to press reports. 
Pastureland and plant species are disappearing; in the eastern 
provinces, violence has erupted among herders fighting over choice 
pastureland.  Rising temperatures have resulted in such extreme 
weather fluctuations which have yielded prolonged droughts and 
harsher winters.  Dwindling water resources and consequent 
desertification directly threaten the country's economic heart - the 
herding and agricultural sectors. Windswept dust from the expanding 
Gobi desert has increased respiratory distress worldwide, according 
to some reports.  The Government of Mongolia (GOM) has acceded to 
numerous treaties and protocols on curbing global warming and has 
engaged the international donor communities on several projects to 
improve water resource management and stem the tide of 
desertification.  But more commitment, financing and capacity 
building will be needed if GOM efforts in these areas are to prove 
effective. END SUMMARY 
 
MONGOLIA IS HEATING UP AND DRYING OUT 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U)  Scientists have determined that, over the last decade, 
average temperatures in Mongolia rose to their highest point in the 
past millennium.  Corresponding to global trends, 1998 was the 
warmest year ever measured in Mongolia. Over the last 60 years 
Mongolia has registered an average annual increase of 1.66 degrees 
Celsius (2.9 degrees Fahrenheit) in air temperature, with a 
recognizable warming trend beginning in the 1970's and intensifying 
towards the end of the 1980's. The warming trend has been most 
pronounced in winter, with a mean temperature increase of 3.61 
degrees Celsius (or 6.5 degrees Fahrenheit), according to Mongolian 
records. The average duration of heat waves has increased by 8-18 
days while the duration of cold fronts is clearly decreasing. 
Scientists speculate that increasing concentrations of greenhouse 
gases in the atmosphere have a more exaggerated effect on the 
climate because Mongolia is a landlocked, high-altitude country. 
 
CAUSE FOR CONCERN 
----------------- 
 
¶3. (U)  Mongolian scientists say they have a reason to be concerned. 
The vast majority of the population depends on livestock and other 
climate-dependent sectors. Animal husbandry employs 48% of the 
population (about 1.4 million Mongolians), produces 35% of the 
nation's agricultural gross production (US$660 million), and 
accounts for 30% of the country's exports. Scientists say a changing 
climate decimates pasture, threatening forage yields, livestock 
productivity, and, ultimately, local and national food production 
capacity. Intensified droughts and severe winters are inflicting 
serious damage, not only on the livestock sector, but also on the 
national economy. 
 
RADICAL WEATHER CHANGES 
----------------------- 
 
¶4. (U)  Although it may seem contradictory that warming conditions 
 
ULAANBAATA 00000679  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
produce harsher winters, in this case harsher means that stormier, 
windier, dustier conditions (typical of a Mongolian spring) 
predominate.  A day can start off sunny and mild at 60 F and end 
with a howling, dusty wind-chill of 15 F.  Mongolian springs, 
currently stretching from late March through May, are feared by 
herders because the intense fluctuations stress their animals at end 
of winter, just when the animals are at their weakest.  Sudden 
winter warming spells often result in higher than normal snowfall, 
surge snows and wind storms that have decimated livestock. Melted 
snow from winter warming spells does not seep into the ground but 
rather create ice sheets that prevent animals from reaching their 
food sources. Summer droughts and corresponding harsh winters, or 
"dzuds" ("white when there's too much snow and "black" when there's 
too little; both tend to cause substantial herd losses of 20-30%), 
in 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002 affected 50-70% of Mongolian territory 
and led to the death of over 10 million animals. 
 
RIVERS, LAKES DRYING UP 
----------------------- 
 
¶5. (U)  Droughts initiated by climate change have resulted in 
decreased levels of surface water resources.  Reduced glacial runoff 
has lowered lake levels and river flows in western Mongolia, 
scientists say.  A 2003-2006 inventory of surface water resources 
showed a massive decrease and a potential permanent loss of natural 
water resources (rivers, lakes, ponds and wells).  Some 3,000 water 
sources have dried up, including 680 rivers and 760 lakes. (COMMENT: 
 The now largely dry river bed adjacent to the Chancery used to flow 
deep and continuously and was the childhood swimming hole for the 
President's Foreign Policy Advisor, for example.) The water table is 
falling in arid regions, and degradation and desertification of land 
cover, due to a shortage of water and precipitation, has 
intensified. Studies have recorded increases in evaporation and 
plant evapo-transpiration, as well as decreases in soil moisture, 
due to rising temperatures. These changes contribute to reduction in 
plant cover that serves as a natural ground insulator. The resulting 
loss of insulation increases surface soil temperatures that lead to 
further evaporation and soil moisture loss. Warming temperatures are 
also eroding the underground permafrost, which is another valuable 
source of water for plant life. 
 
PASTURELAND, PLANT SPECIES DISAPPERARING 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U)  Along with overgrazing and deforestation, soil- moisture 
loss is one of the factors contributing to the country's growing 
desertification, scientists report.  Roughly 40% of Mongolia's 
territory currently consists of arid or desert terrain, and 
scientists estimate some 70-80% of the country is vulnerable to 
desertification.  They estimate that 70% of Mongolia's pastureland 
has been degraded and depleted, vegetation growth rate has already 
decreased five times, and the number of plant species has reduced 
six fold.  As pastureland has decreased by 6.9 million hectors 
during the last 30 years, the yield from severely degraded pasture 
has decreased five fold. 
 
SAND BLOWN AS FAR AWAY AS NEVADA 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U)  Increased desertification has created severe dust and 
sandstorms, known in some parts as the "Yellow Sand" phenomenon, 
that have swept across Mongolia and 18 provinces of China, as well 
as the Korean peninsula and a large part of Japan, according to 
press reports.  These sands have blown clear to the United States; a 
 
ULAANBAATA 00000679  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
recent report regarding pollution in the state of Nevada noted that 
the high levels of arsenic in the atmosphere originated from this 
region.  Dust and sandstorms are serious trans-boundary 
environmental issues in northeast Asia, impacting the health of 
millions of people across a large swath of the Northern Hemisphere. 
It results in decreased visibility, as well as eye and respiratory 
problems. 
 
GOM EFFORTS TO PROTECT ENVIRONMENT 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (U)  The GOM works unilaterally and multilaterally on 
environmental protection.  Mongolia joined the UN Framework 
Convention on Climate Change in 1992 and in 1999 implemented its 
national program on protection of the Ozone Layer (with assistance 
from the UN Environment Program).  Mongolia also took part in the 
"Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction from Industry in Asia and the 
Pacific" project, which was implemented in nine countries by UNEP. 
Mongolia acceded to the Montreal Protocol (on substances that 
deplete the ozone layer) in 1996 and to the Stockholm Convention (on 
reduction of persistent organic pollutants) in 2004.  Mongolia 
ratified the Kyoto Treaty on Climate Change in 1999. 
 
FIGHTING DESERTIFICATION 
------------------------ 
 
¶9. (U)  The GOM developed a National Program for Combating 
Desertification (NPCD) and set up a National Committee for Combating 
Desertification (NCCD), but personnel, resource and , financing 
limitations hinder the committee's activities.  The Swiss Agency for 
Development and Cooperation (SDC) has proposed to contribute to a 
more effective implementation of the NPCD in alignment with 
Mongolia's policies and action plans. The SDC project aims to 
support the NCCD's objectives of improving the effectiveness of 
national and international efforts on combating desertification and 
promoting sustainable livelihoods in arid and semi-arid areas.  The 
NCCD has a government mandate for coordination and alignment. 
However, its capacity is weak and activities related to 
desertification are isolated and often lack a coherent, long-term 
perspective.  Additionally, no entity currently conducts 
standardized monitoring of programs on desertification.  Nor is 
there a coordinating agency to share lessons learned or best 
practices. 
 
WATER MANAGEMENT 
---------------- 
 
10.(U)  Faced with dwindling water resources, the GOM declared 2004 
as the "National Year of Water," and passed new legislation on water 
management.  The "Johannesburg Goal" of setting up a national plan 
for an Integrated Water Resource Management was a key element. 
Furthermore, the  Government of the Netherlands will soon implement 
a five-year project titled "Water Resources United Management." 
Under the project, US$9.3 million will be spent on the improvement 
of subsoil water supplies, water preservation, and the improvement 
of water supplies of settlement areas. 
 
U.PENN TEAM TO LAKE HOVSGOL 
--------------------------- 
 
11.(U)  A team of ecologists and evolutionary biologists from the 
University of Pennsylvania received a five-year, $2.5-million 
National Science Foundation grant to examine the ecological and 
societal consequences of increased grazing and rising temperatures 
 
ULAANBAATA 00000679  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
in the Lake Hovsgol region of northern Mongolia.  The goal is to 
understand how this region will respond to further global warming 
and to inform GOM policy being prepared on land preservation and 
management.  The project focuses on understanding the effects of 
grazing and climate change in a region used by nomadic herders and 
home to two important ecosystems, the taiga forest and steppe 
grasslands.  US scientists will also run educational workshops on 
ecology, evolutionary biology and statistics, all underrepresented 
in the Mongolian curriculum. 
 
NEWS NOT ALL BAD 
---------------- 
 
12.(U)  Ironically for Mongolia, the news may not be all bad.  Some 
scientists and economists have speculated that, along with other 
northern countries, Mongolia could benefit to the tune of a 6.5% 
increase in GDP if global warming predictions pan out, thanks mostly 
to reduced expenditures on fossil fuels for heating; increased 
tourism (international tourism to Mongolia could jump 122% by the 
end of the century as the country becomes warmer) and projected 
gains in agricultural production because of longer growing seasons 
and more accommodating climates.  (Researchers believe that if the 
world warms up, the sweet spots for growing crops will migrate 
northward. The more likely scenario, however, is that any gains from 
warming temperatures will be offset by reduced levels of 
precipitation and the increased spread of parasites and diseases.) 
 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
13.(SBU)   Mongolia's unspoiled wilderness has allowed researchers 
from all over the world to investigate the advance of global warming 
and climate change on a scientific level.  But you hardly need a 
thermometer or Bunsen burner to see the devastating toll that global 
warming is already exacting on the environment and people of 
Mongolia. As water resources vanish and desertification intensifies, 
herders compete over dwindling patches of grazing land. Governors 
from Mongolia's eastern provinces report that violence has spread 
among herders, with those migrating from dried-up southern pastures 
contending with herders in the north for a piece of their richer 
steppe.  The livelihood of herder communities suffers and the 
country's large agricultural sector is negatively impacted. 
Urbanization intensifies as more herders abandon their traditions to 
find work in the cities. 
 
¶14. (SBU)  So far Mongolia has talked the talk in combating global 
warming.  President Enkhbayar made climate change the theme of one 
of his major speeches during his recent visit to the U.S., for 
example.  But as is often the case, lack of resources and capacity 
limit the GOM's responses to the crisis. The country's deteriorating 
environmental situation is exacerbated by vested interests 
(artisanal mining and the cashmere industry), poor coordination 
among ministries and agencies, inadequate monitoring of natural 
resource conditions and weak enforcement of environmental 
regulations. To address these challenges, the GOM will need to more 
vigorously enforce existing environmental laws, expand its system of 
nature reserves, and invest in energy-efficient technologies and 
pollution abatement schemes. The GOM will also need to work more 
closely with international organizations and civil society to 
promote environmental awareness. 
 
Minton