VZCZCXRO6723
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSI #3145/01 3541238
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 201238Z DEC 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY TBILISI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8492
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 003145 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIAN ELECTIONS: TWO COMPETING WORLDS IN 
HOTLY-CONTESTED ADJARA 
 
 
TBILISI 00003145  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Poloff visited the Black Sea town of Batumi 
in the autonomous region of Adjara December 11-13 to gauge 
the pre-election mood of the political parties, 
election-monitoring organizations and general populace in the 
lead-up to the January 5 snap presidential election. 
Opposition party leaders claimed the National Movement (UNM) 
was using administrative resources to support candidate 
Mikheil Saakashvili.  Organizations monitoring the 
pre-election period also complained of limited resources and 
time to fully investigate charges against the government that 
include handouts offered to voters, intimidation of 
government employees, and unequal access to media for all 
candidates.  The UNM was dismissive of these charges, saying 
Adjarans come to the UNM to have their problems solved. 
Students and Batumi residents expressed frustration at the 
government's alleged abuse of power during the pre-election 
period and felt sure Saakashvili would not win the first 
round outright.  However, the National Movement leadership in 
Adjara was certain Saakashvili would win enough of a majority 
to avoid a second round.  End Summary. 
 
Meeting with Opposition Leaders 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Representatives of the New Rightists, United 
National Council of Opposition (UNC) and Badri 
Patarkatsishvili's party shared their concerns over National 
Movement tactics during the pre-election period as well as 
their campaigns in Adjara.  The New Rightists representative 
laid out a well-defined campaign plan focused on issues 
unique to Adjara, including reaching out to Muslim voters, 
placing more Adjarans in civil government (instead of 
officials from Tbilisi), and addressing concerns of coastal 
residents.  He predicted a second round vote and was 
pragmatic about the opposition's chances in the election, 
saying "I wish it would be New Rightists candidate Davit 
Gamkrelidze against Saakashvili, but it will depend on what 
Patarkatsishvili does."  The New Rightists representative was 
the only opposition member who said his party would accept 
the results of the election.  At the Republican Party 
headquarters, the seat of the UNC campaign, poloff received a 
passionate speech detailing the National Movement's efforts 
to intimidate government employees.  The UNC representative 
showed poloff a list the government was allegedly using to 
collect the names of government employees' family members to 
be used to gather more votes, however, he provided no details 
on the UNC's campaign strategy in Adjara.  Patarkatsishvili's 
representative said his candidacy was new and did not have 
the infrastructure to run a campaign throughout Adjara yet. 
The representative reported Patarkatsishvili may not return 
to Georgia to campaign if there are no guarantees from the 
government that he won't be detained. 
 
Meeting with National Movement 
------------------------------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) The UNM representative said he did not anticipate a 
second round of voting as the people of Adjara could feel the 
improvements made by the National Movement government 
(including the removal of Aslan Abeshidze) "in their skin." 
He assessed that Saakashvili would win in the first round. 
He said the influx of tourism and the improvements to 
infrastructure over the last three years assured the public's 
continued support for the UNM, citing the new boardwalk and 
hotels appearing in Batumi.  The representative, an MP, did 
not outline a specific program for the campaign in Adjara, 
saying most decisions on campaigning and advertising were 
made centrally in Tbilisi, but he added the UNM was focused 
on addressing any problems citizens brought to them.  He also 
said the UNM in Adjara does not have a press officer and only 
uses the media to "debunk" charges made by the opposition. 
(Note: Unfortunately, the President's representative and the 
Mayor, both of whom usually outline a long list of plans and 
accomplishments in Batumi, were not available to meet - 
leaving a lower level and seemingly uninformed MP to meet 
Embassy reps. End Note.) 
 
Election Monitoring Organizations 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) In meetings with the Georgian Young Lawyer's 
Association (GYLA), Fair Elections Society (ISFED), and NGO 
Human Rights, each group expressed concern over limited 
personnel and resources to adequately observe the January 5 
elections and pre-election period.  Each organization will 
send observers throughout Adjara, but all three felt coverage 
in the more remote precincts in the mountainous parts of 
Adjara would be sparse.  GYLA has set aside resources to 
observe the media during the pre-election period, and each 
 
TBILISI 00003145  002 OF 002 
 
 
organization will continue to compile complaints of unfair 
campaign practices to report them to the Central Election 
Commission (CEC).  The head of GYLA told poloff he was 
approached by police who offered their "protection during the 
election period" as the police feared he "might be a target 
of violence."  Along with concern over inaccurate voter 
lists, these organizations leveled more serious charges 
against the government. 
 
Complaints Against the Ruling Party 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The ISFED representative claimed that during every 
meeting of the Precinct Election Commissions (PEC) and 
District Election Commissions (DEC) in Adjara, the UNM filled 
the positions of chairman, deputy chairman and secretary, 
even though the opposition could have served in these roles. 
Explaining, ISFED said the PEC and DEC meetings were held 
with such short notice that the opposition was not prepared 
to nominate candidates for these positions, the UNM used 
their majority on the commissions to vote for their own 
candidates, or in some cases, the opposition did not reach 
the meeting place in time to participate in the selection of 
chairman.  Both the opposition parties and NGOs complained of 
civil servants working at UNM headquarters, even during 
working hours - leaving some government offices virtually 
empty.  GYLA members said they observed rice, sugar and other 
staples being handed out, labeled as "president's gifts," but 
they were unable to find any government program or office 
responsible for the handouts.  The UNM party was dismissive 
of these complaints, claiming citizens approached them to 
solve problems and calling the complaints baseless. 
Patarkatsishvili's party said that over 1000 signatures they 
collected to qualify Patarkatsishvili as a candidate with the 
CEC were destroyed when police took them from party 
organizers and tore the lists in half.  The UNC and ISFED 
also said the National Movement had transferred computers 
from the Batumi City Council to their campaign headquarters 
in Batumi.  Despite holding a press conference on this issue, 
the opposition reported the media instead portrayed the 
problem as a request by the opposition for office space, 
entirely ignoring the alleged resource abuse by the UNM. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) As the former stronghold of Russia-backed leader 
Aslan Abeshidze, Adjara is second only to Tbilisi among the 
regions in its strength of the opposition.  As we saw in 
local elections, in October 2006, this strength remains. 
Despite a strong showing at that time, UNM candidates won a 
majority in the election.  We believe this is largely due to 
the vast improvements to the region's capital, Batumi, which 
have made it an international resort city in the short time 
since Abeshidze's departure in 2005.  Some of the worst 
election fraud during Shevardnadze's time occurred in Adjara 
and we believe these tactics are not fully eradicated.  As a 
result of this and the opposition strength, the Embassy will 
send four teams to Adjara to monitor the presidential 
elections, which we still expect Saakashvili to win, although 
with a smaller percentage than in the other regions of the 
country. 
TEFFT