VZCZCXRO4106
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHIN #2611/01 3480825
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 140825Z DEC 07 ZDK CORRECTED COPY ADDED CAPTION ZDK
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7600
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7537
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 1531
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 2251
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 6224
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 0714
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 8814

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002611 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y  ADDED SENSITIVE CAPTION 
 
DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: LEGISLATIVE ELECTION PREVIEW: THE VIEW FROM THE SOUTH 
 
REF: A) Taipei 1387, B) Taipei 1470, C) Taipei 2501 
 
TAIPEI 00002611  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  With just four weeks to go before Taiwan's 
Legislative Yuan (LY) elections, the ruling DPP appears to have the 
upper hand in most districts of southern Taiwan, except for Taitung 
and Penghu Counties.  With a halving of the legislature and a 
reduction in the size of most election districts, candidates are 
pursuing more locally-focused campaign strategies.  Under the new 
election system, candidate constituency services, personal 
connections and local image count more heavily than party 
identification.  The DPP has been campaigning on Taiwan identity 
issues, while the opposition KMT has focused on improving the 
economy.  DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh, who has been 
concentrating his campaign in the pivotal central Taiwan region, has 
spent little time campaigning for LY candidates in the south.  This 
contrasts markedly with KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou, who 
has already visited all southern districts at least once to stump 
for LY candidates.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) This cable is one of a series of reports on the political 
scene in important cities and counties in the run-up to the 2008 
legislative and presidential elections. 
 
DPP Has the Upper Hand in Southern Taiwan 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The ruling DPP and opposition KMT are competing 
head-to-head in southern Taiwan, widely regarded as a DPP 
stronghold, in the run up to the January 2008 legislative elections 
(refs A and B).  Other parties are a minor factor, with only one 
candidate from the People's First Party (PFP) running in Kaohsiung 
County and two candidates from the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) 
running in Chiayi City.  Local party officials and political 
observers have told AIT/K that the DPP is likely to win the majority 
of the LY seats in southern Taiwan.  The KMT is expected to prevail 
in the single-seat districts of Taitung and Penghu Counties, where 
the races are tight.  According to the press, President Chen 
Shui-bian reportedly predicted in an internal meeting that all the 
seats in Chiayi (two seats) and Tainan (three seats) Counties would 
go to the DPP candidates. 
 
Wooing the Undecided and Youth Voters 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Most LY candidates are campaigning hard to woo support from 
undecided voters during the final weeks of the campaign period.  KMT 
Tainan City Chairman Wu Chao-yu told AIT/K he is trying to woo the 
youth vote, piggybacking on presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou's 
appeal among young people.  If the KMT can successfully mobilize 
young voters, its candidates may have a chance to win more LY seats 
in the south.  DPP Tainan County Chairman Kuo Kuo-wen told AIT/K his 
party has reenergized core supporters by pushing the UN referendum. 
Kuo cited Tainan County Magistrate Su Huan-chih (DPP) as an example. 
 Although Su has criticized President Chen relentlessly over the 
last couple of years on his poor performance, he is now vigorously 
praising the President for raising the UN referendum as such a high 
profile issue. 
 
Change of Campaign Strategy - Small Gatherings Prevail 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The campaign atmosphere ahead of the LY elections has been 
inordinately "cold" in southern Taiwan.  Under the new 
"single-member district, two-vote" electoral system, the size of 
constituencies has shrunk, forcing candidates to adjust campaign 
strategies.  Unlike the past, streets are not littered with campaign 
literature, and banners are not flying from every available light 
post.  Instead of holding large, expensive, high profile rallies, 
candidates are campaigning personally door-to-door.  Multiple small 
gatherings with family or social groups (e.g., community and 
professional associations), have become a more efficient and 
effective way for candidates to campaign.  Since the small groups 
usually provide tea and refreshments, such gatherings also reduce 
campaign costs and keep charges of vote-buying at bay.  As a result, 
incumbent legislators who provide extensive constituency services 
will have a better chance to win when running against non-incumbent 
challengers.  For incumbents running against incumbents, the need 
for personalized campaigning is critical. 
 
Where Is Frank Hsieh? 
--------------------- 
 
TAIPEI 00002611  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Without a doubt, presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou is 
the KMT's hottest campaign star on the LY campaign trail, having 
visited all southern districts (some more than once) to promote his 
policies and to support LY candidates.  On the other hand, DPP 
presidential candidate Frank Hsieh seems to have disappeared 
altogether from the southern LY campaign scene.  DPP Tainan County 
Chairman Kuo told AIT/K that some local DPP party leaders in the 
south have complained about not seeing Frank Hsieh campaigning for 
the legislative candidates.  They note that President Chen, by 
contrast, shows up almost every week, causing many constituents to 
ask who is running for president.  Kuo heard through party channels 
that Hsieh tried hard to avoid coming to Kaohsiung on November 17 
for the LY campaign rally that followed the November 16 High Court 
verdict (reftel C) allowing Mayor Chen Chu to retain her seat.  Kuo 
indicated that there must be coordination problems between Hsieh's 
camp and the DPP central office, and stressed it is unusual for the 
southern DPP campaign offices to be so out of touch with a high 
profile candidate's campaign headquarters.  Taitung County DPP 
chairman Hsu Wen-hsien suggested that Hsieh's absence is not all 
bad.  VIP visits, he said, just drain local resources and do not 
necessarily result in greater turnout at the polls.  Hsu indicated 
it is obvious to him from press reports that Hsieh assumes he has 
the south in his back pocket and is therefore focused heavily on 
wooing central Taiwan voters, who will be key to deciding the 
outcome of the presidential election. 
 
Election Issues 
--------------- 
¶7.  (SBU) As in previous elections, the KMT is making the state of 
Taiwan's economy its main campaign issue to highlight the poor 
performance of the ruling DPP.  To counter the KMT, the DPP has been 
using Taiwan identity-related issues to keep the focus on more 
emotionally based issues that energize its base, appeal to many 
Taiwanese, and put the KMT on the defensive.  Central News Agency 
reporter Cheng Chi-fong told AIT/K that the DPP can still play the 
identity card because people can endure a bad economy but do not 
want to lose "national pride." 
 
District Election Trends 
------------------------ 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Kaohsiung City (5 seats): The DPP is expected to win 
three seats and is looking to win a fourth seat if a DPP maverick 
running in the third district can be talked into pulling out of the 
race.  Most political officials, including from the KMT, indicated 
the DPP is likely to pull out a victory in the third district.  The 
KMT is likely to win 2 seats and is campaigning hard to try to win a 
third seat. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Kaohsiung County (4 seats): This is a DPP stronghold, where 
the DPP will win at least two seats.  A third seat, which might have 
fallen easily to the DPP, may go to the KMT due to a maverick 
pan-Green candidate who could split the vote in the third district. 
The KMT is cooperating with the PFP in the first district by 
supporting a PFP incumbent legislator running under the KMT banner, 
who has a strong shot at a pan-Blue win in Kaohsiung County. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Tainan City (2 seats) - It is likely that the DPP and KMT 
each will win one seat because the two KMT candidates are both 
incumbents and only one DPP candidate is an incumbent. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Tainan County (3 seats) - The DPP is likely to win all 
three seats.  If the KMT can pull out an unexpected win, it will 
take one seat for which it is running an incumbent who has served 
successfully for over ten years. 
 
¶12.  (SBU)  Chiayi City (1 seat) - With a TSU candidate running in 
the race and a strong possibility of split in pan-Green votes, the 
KMT incumbent is likely to win the sole seat. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Chiayi County (2 seats) - This is a DPP dominated area 
with a County Magistrate campaigning hard behind the scenes in this 
election.  The DPP is likely to take both seats. 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Pingtung County (3 seats) - It is likely that the DPP 
will win at least two seats and the KMT will take one seat.  The DPP 
would regard winning anything less than two seats as a defeat in 
Pingtung. 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Taitung County (1 seat) - The DPP did not nominate a 
party candidate because the KMT has long dominated the county.  As a 
strategic countermove, however, the DPP recruited and is publicly 
 
TAIPEI 00002611  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
and financially supporting a very popular former-KMT county 
councilor, turned maverick, to run in the LY election as a 
non-partisan in an attempt to split the KMT vote.  The KMT incumbent 
is fighting a hard race this time, but it is likely the KMT will 
retain this seat. 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Penghu County (1 seat) - Although the KMT dominates this 
county, the KMT did not nominate a candidate, but supports the 
incumbent non-partisan legislator who is a former KMT member.  In 
addition, a KMT maverick is running in this election, as well as a 
DPP candidate.  The race could be very close and the DPP candidate 
may win due to his local popularity and because the KMT votes could 
split. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶17.  (SBU)  The LY elections in southern Taiwan have taken a 
definite backseat to presidential election politics, with the main 
public spotlight focused on KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou and President 
Chen Shui-bian.  The real competition for LY seats is taking place 
away from the public eye and the press, however.  LY contenders are 
battling it out in family living rooms and small groups as they move 
throughout the grassroots, giving a more personal touch to their 
campaign efforts. 
 
Thiele 
 
Young