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C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 001858 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA: BALBINA - "I DON'T WANT TO RUN FOR 
PRESIDENT" 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William A. Eaton.  Reasons:  1.4 (b) 
and (d) 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) "I don't want to run for president.  (Panama City 
Mayor) Juan Carlos Navarro will be the PRD presidential 
nominee," Panamanian Minister of Housing Balbina Herrera told 
POLCOUNS on December 9.  Echoing her emphatic August 9 
assertions to DCM, she declared, "I intend to run for mayor." 
 Asked whether the governing Revolutionary Democratic Party 
(PRD) was moving in a more leftward and/or populist 
direction, Herrera said emphatically, "No."  Stating the need 
to continue moving in the modernizing direction started by 
President Martin Torrijos, Herrera said, "I am particularly 
concerned about the need to provide opportunity to middle 
class professionals."  Aware of her own anti-American 
activities in the past, Herrera professed to want a "richer 
exchange of views" with the U.S.  Herrera, at the conclusion 
of this three-hour conversation, led POLCOUNS on a tour of a 
recently completed housing complex to provide permanent 
shelter to those left homeless by the December 2005 Curundu 
fire. 
 
------------------------------ 
"I Don't Want to be President" 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) "I don't want to run for president," Herrera declared. 
 Panama City Mayor "Juan Carlos Navarro will be the PRD 
presidential nominee."  Pressed that Herrera consistently 
out-polled Navarro and that her popularity seemed to rise 
every time that she denied wanting to be president, Herrera 
said that she had made a commitment to Navarro to support him 
for president; "I stand by my word."  As when the DCM pressed 
on August 9, Herrera insisted that she wanted to be mayor. 
Later she remarked that her time to run for president would 
come in 2014.  She recounted how in 1995, following the 
President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares' presidential 
victory in which Balbina helped deliver San Miguelito 
(Panama's second largest municipality) to him, that Perez 
Balladares offered her a ministerial position. "I turned it 
down because I wanted to be President of the National 
Assembly.  I wanted to learn the congressional process, about 
how the budget process works, our programs."  Disappointed, 
El Toro told her that she would have to get the votes on her 
own, to which Herrera said she responded, "I will.  Just 
don't block my efforts."  Staying in the National Assembly 
proved to be "the best decision.  I learned a tremendous 
amount."  "I now want to be mayor of Panama.  I think it will 
be a similar learning experience." 
 
-------------------- 
Inside the PRD Today 
-------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Turning to the current dynamics in the PRD, Herrera 
said that Navarro was currently the only viable -- though not 
perfect -- option to be the PRD's presidential nominee. 
"There's no way (current First VP and FM) Samuel Lewis will 
win the nomination."  His campaign had failed to start, he 
had no structure, and he had no base in the PRD, Herrera 
summarized.  As for Perez Balladares, he is a very proud man 
-- "You know that he is deeply wounded by his lack of U.S. 
visa" -- but was a spent force in the PRD. 
 
¶4. (C) Navarro would have a lot of work to do winning over 
key segments of the PRD, including "Torrijistas," but Herrera 
assessed that Navarro would eventually be able to win over 
doubters within the party.  Asked if Navarro heeded her 
advice, Herrera said, "Not frequently enough.  He is still 
relatively new to the PRD and would benefit from listening to 
advice.  He really has no structure around him, just himself 
and a couple of advisors.  Unfortunately, he doesn't seem to 
listen to anybody but himself."  Navarro was particularly bad 
about not heeding the party's own unwritten internal rules 
for building a base of support.  "He came to me once asking 
for a public statement of support.  My first question was, 
'Have you spoken with the President?'  He said he had not, so 
I told him, 'Do you know how he would explode if you were 
here lobbying me now?'" 
 
¶5. (C) Previously on August 9, Herrera had told DCM that she 
thought that Navarro was paying too much attention to his 
presidential candidacy and not enough attention to his job as 
mayor. Herrera told DCM then that she was not going to be 
"manipulated" by anybody and would not "owe Torrijos or 
anybody else any favors."  While she agreed to run for the 
PRD Presidency, she said at the time that she would not rely 
on anybody to get her the votes.  As she said on December 9 
with respect to the PRD Presidency, so too Herrera said with 
respect to the mayor's race, "I will go earn the votes on my 
own." 
 
¶6. (C) Torrijos had been weakened by "his mishandling" of the 
election of Pedro Miguel Gonzalez (PMG) as President of the 
National Assembly, but he still determined the direction of 
the party.  "Torrijos is still our president.  I've always 
been a disciplined PRD member, sacrificing quite a bit along 
the way.  I will continue to support my president." 
Regarding PMG's election, she said, "I told him (PMG) that 
I'd sacrificed a great deal for my party and my election. 
Asked by Torrijos to make room for Lewis and (Second VP 
Ruben) Arosemena to be vice presidential nominees, I stepped 
aside.  A lock to be President of the PRD, I stepped aside 
when asked to make room for Hugo Giraud."  (Note:  She 
laughed hysterically when POLCOUNS could not remember the 
name of the PRD's president.)   "Yet, Pedro Miguel was 
stubborn and thick (torpe) and selfish; he refused to step 
aside," Herrera said disdainfully.  "When I saw that his 
entire family was up in the galleries, I knew that he was not 
going to resign after being sworn in."  She asserted that PMG 
omitted the final page of his speech, which she had seen, in 
which he would have announced his resignation. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
"Need to Provide Opportunity to Middle Class Professionals" 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
¶7. (C) "We now have a massive party, slightly over half a 
million members," Herrera said, "who come from all walks of 
life and different social strata."  Arguing that the party 
needed to continue in the modernizing direction that Torrijos 
had charted, Herrera said, "We need somebody like Navarro who 
continue to pull this mammoth party in that direction." 
Asked if the party needed to turn in a more leftward and/or 
populist direction, Herrera said, "No."  Asserting that 
left/right did not make much sense in Panama, especially 
today, Herrera said that the PRD needed to be the party for 
all Panamanians.  "These days I am particularly concerned 
about the need to provide opportunity to middle class 
professionals." 
 
¶8. (C) Whether doctors or teachers, engineers or accountants, 
Herrera said that it was becoming increasingly difficult for 
middle class professional families, even with two incomes, to 
sustain their standard of living given flat wages and the 
rise in the cost of living.  "Most importantly though, I am 
worried about the lack of opportunity for middle class 
professionals to rise above a glass ceiling in the companies 
and industries controlled by elite families.  The business 
leaders need to open opportunity for these people to 
achieve."  Asked if she was worried about providing 
opportunities for lower class workers, Herrera said, "No.  We 
have programs for them.  Many jobs have been created in 
construction and security.  While there are still problems, 
things are improving, and they know that we are responsible 
for that improvement." 
 
¶9. (C) If Panama was to share wealth and opportunity more 
equitably, the economy had to continue growing.  "I don't 
wish to return to the ideas of my radical past.  Torrijos has 
shown us how we can keep the economy growing." That said, 
over the years, Herrera told DCM on August 9 that she had 
learned to respect the role of private enterprise.  "We need 
to let them do their business," she said, "but the government 
has a role to play in ensuring wealth and opportunity are 
shared."  Poverty, she added, was Panama's biggest challenge, 
but one in which the PRD was not reaching the masses; "It is 
a ticking time bomb."  She told DCM that cited crime was the 
second biggest challenge, but one that only received 
attention when somebody in an upscale neighborhood was a 
victim. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
"Want to Keep a Conversation Going with the U.S." 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶10. (C) "I want to keep a conversation going with the U.S.," 
Herrera said.  She added that such contact needed to be 
handled carefully so as not to upset Torrijos or draw too 
much attention to the relationship. "You know that the 
Consejo (Council for Public Security and National Defense) 
listens in on all of us," she said in an aside, echoing her 
August 9 comments to DCM.  Herrera concurred that the PRD 
could often seem to be a black box in which it was often 
difficult to decipher what was going on inside.  "I am a bit 
surprised that you wanted to talk politics with me. I thought 
that the Embassy supported (Democratic Change (CD) President 
and presidential candidate Ricardo) Martinelli," Herrera 
said.   POLCOUNS said that that was not true, that the U.S. 
was not backing candidates in Panama, and that the U.S. was 
focused on supporting a free, fair, and transparent electoral 
process that strengthened Panama's democracy.  Whereas on 
August 9 she was primarily concerned by the challenge that 
former President Guillermo Endara would present in the 
presidential race, on December 9 she was primarily concerned 
about Martinelli. 
 
¶11. (C) "The U.S. and the PRD would benefit from a richer 
exchange of views."  Aware of her own anti-American 
activities in the past, Herrera asserted, "I've come to 
realize that Panama needs a strong partnership with the U.S." 
 
-------------------------------- 
Tour of Curundu Housing Projects 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (C) The day's three-hour conversation concluded with an 
impromptu visit to a recently opened housing project for 
those left homeless by the December 2006 fire in Curundu. 
Prior to departing, Herrera explained that she had focused 
the Ministry of Housing (MIVI) on three main tasks:  building 
new public housing, rehabilitating older public housing, and 
keeping better housing statistics to track progress.  "My 
ministry has a plan that we prepared carefully.  When I had 
to travel to the States for a month for medical treatment for 
my granddaughter, I could do so confidently because my team 
is committed to this plan and knows what to do."  She then 
mounted up a handful of camp-followers and dashed off -- 
POLCOUNS in tow -- to see an innovative housing project built 
in an old lingerie factory.  With great pride, Herrera 
strolled through the self-contained complex that provided 
efficiency, one bedroom and two bedroom homes to thirty-three 
of the nearly one hundred families left homeless by the 
fires.  She greeted many inhabitants by name and received a 
hero's welcome.  To live here, tenants had to sign an 
agreement to care for this property.  Also, MIVI coordinated 
with other ministries to bring in other needed social 
services.  She also outlined plans to purchase an unused 
warehouse and condemn a dilapidated building across the 
street to provide sixty to seventy more public housing units. 
  Asked by one occupant, "You're not going to run for 
President; you're going to be our mayor, right?," Herrera 
responded, "Right." 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶13. (C) Herrera's emphatic assertions that she would not run 
for president fly in the face of what is increasingly 
becoming accepted wisdom that she will be the PRD 
presidential nominee.  If true, then the opposition -- 
portions of which are trying to demonize her, a task for 
which they have plenty of Noriega-era material -- may be 
preparing to run against the wrong candidate. 
 
¶14. (C) Herrera came across as a fully committed PRD member 
who was prepared to sacrifice for her party but who also 
skillfully preserved her own political space.  She strived to 
impress separately upon DCM and POLCOUNS that she had 
consciously -- and more importantly independently -- arrived 
at her decision to run for mayor of Panama City, not 
president.  She portrayed this decision as a deliberate 
effort to gain executive experience and to overcome her 
skeptics' concerns regarding her radical past.  Of course, 
there could be a more strategic element to her calculus to 
run for mayor now and president later.  In doing so, she may 
believe that she can avoid failing to overcome the pendular 
effect of Panamanian politics that since 1989 has thrown each 
incumbent party out of government and replaced it with the 
opposition.  Seen in this light, Herrera may be calculating 
that Navarro will take the fall for the PRD in 2009 leaving 
her to swoop in to then benefit from the pendular effect in 
2014 to ride it back into power. 
 
¶15. (C) Of course, it remains to be seen if Herrera -- the 
non-presidential candidate who's presidential numbers go up 
every time she professes not to want to be president -- would 
succumb to "draft Balbina" effort.  The most that Herrera 
would admit on either August 9 or December 9 was were 
circumstances to change sufficiently, then the political game 
-- and her role in it -- might change. 
 
EATON