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C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 001856 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2017 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA:  MARTINELLI CONTINUES TO LEAD POLLS 
 
 
Classified By: POLCOUNS Brian R. Naranjo.  Reasons:  1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. (C) Democratic Change (CD) Party President and 
presidential candidate Ricardo Martinelli continues to lead 
the polls in all respects, according to a November 2007 poll 
conducted by Panama's leading pollster, Dichter and Neira. 
Overall, the GOP gets a neutral to somewhat negative approval 
rating.  Martinelli leads the polls at 26.7 percent in the 
open question, asking respondents for whom they would vote 
for president. In a closed question with six options, 
Martinelli outpaces governing Revolutionary Democratic Party 
(PRD) member and Minister of Housing Balbina Herrera by 
nearly 20 points (36.6 to 16.8 percent).  Interestingly 
though, in a series of hypothetical races, PRD member and 
Panama City Mayor Juan Carlos Navarro presents the most 
significant challenge to Martinelli closing to within about 
1.5 percent of Martinelli's lead and slashing Martinelli's 
rating in the polls from nearly 40 percent to about 20 
percent.  While the common wisdom on the street, a wisdom 
accepted by Martinelli, is that Herrera will be the PRD 
presidential candidate, Martinelli could be surprised to find 
himself in a horse race against Navarro if Herrera follows 
through and keeps her word that she will not run for 
president, but rather mayor of Panama City (SEPTEL).  End 
summary. 
 
-------------- 
Technical Data 
-------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) This poll was conducted nationally in all of 
Panama's provinces, but not in Panama's indigenous people's 
reservations (comarcas).  The sample included 1,214 
face-to-face interviews.  Normally, Dichter and Neira 
re-interviews a small portion of the original sample, but, as 
of when this poll was acquired, post does not know what the 
margin of error of this poll is assessed to be.  Dichter and 
Neira's polls usual have a margin of error of 3 to 4 percent 
and are widely considered to be the most reliable polls in 
Panama.  For the purposes of this cable, the statistics cited 
below refer to totals for individual questions, not subtotals 
broken down by region, age, income or party affiliation. 
 
¶3.  (C) This poll was obtained by POLCOUNS from Martinelli on 
December 6.  While post does not know the actual dates on 
which this poll was conducted, CD VP Roberto Henriquez and 
close Martinelli advisor Jimmy Papademetriu indicated 
separately to POLCOUNS that this poll was conducted over the 
course of 7 days in the second half of November.  This poll 
has been shared with State's WHA/CEN and INR/IAA.  Post has 
high confidence that Martinelli has not tampered with these 
results as they track 100 percent with portions of this same 
poll that post has seen elsewhere. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Evaluating the GOP's Performance 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Overall, the GOP gets a neutral to somewhat negative 
approval rating.  Asked how they would rate the Torrijos 
Administration, nearly as many rated the Torrijos 
Administration as "good" (38.7 percent) as "bad" (39.2 
percent) and 13.6 percent rated it as "very bad."  Asked to 
rate the direction of in which the country was headed on a 
scale of 1 to 5 where 1 indicates "totally mistaken" and 5 
indicates "totally correct,"  39.0 percent rated the 
direction as 3, or neutral, and 16.6 percent rated it as a 2 
and 22.4 as a 1.  In a closed question asking interviewees to 
select from a list of "entities or organizations," 
interviewees cited that the following were principally 
responsible for unemployment:  the government (81 percent), 
the politicians (56 percent), the businessmen (55 percent), 
the political parties (37 percent), and President Martin 
Torrijos (29 percent).  The top three causes of insecurity 
cited by interviewees were:  unemployment (33.6 percent), 
drugs (13.7 percent), and poverty (10.7 percent). 
 
--------------------- 
The Presidential Race 
--------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The Open Question:  Martinelli leads the polls at 
26.7 percent in the open question, "If the 2009 elections 
were held today, for whom would you vote for President of the 
Republic?"  More than 15 points behind him, his closest 
competition in this open questions is current Minister of 
Housing Balbina Herrera (11.7 percent) followed by Panama 
City Mayor Juan Carlos Navarro (9.7 percent), and Moral 
Vanguard of the Nation (VMP) Party President and former 
President Guillermo Endara (7.4 percent).  After Endara, the 
numbers drop off steeply with Panamenista presidential 
contender Alberto Vallarino (3.5 percent), Panamanista Party 
President Juan Carlos Varela (2.4 percent), governing 
Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) member and former 
President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares (2.2 percent), 
PRD member and First VP and FM Samuel Lewis (1.0 percent). 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Closed Question:  Presented only six options 
from whom to choose, interviewees gave Martinelli a 
substantial lead of nearly twenty points over Herrera.  This 
list of what are widely perceived to be the most viable 
presidential contenders shook out as follows: 
 
Martinelli:  36.6 percent 
Herrera:  16.8 percent 
Navarro:  8.6 percent 
Endara:  6.8 percent 
Vallarino:  5.3 percent 
Varela:  1.8 percent. 
 
---------------------- 
The Hypothetical Races 
---------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU)  The poll asked interviewees to indicate their 
choice in a series of hypothetical races.  These hypothetical 
scenarios suggest that Martinelli's most significant 
challenger would be Navarro.  Whereas Martinelli sustained 
support around or above 40 percent in the other three 
scenarios in which he was included as an option, when Navarro 
was included as an option that level of support was cut in 
half to 20 percent with Navarro only about a point and a half 
behind (18.6 percent).  While Martinelli clobbered Endara 3 
to 1 (46.7 percent to 15.1 percent) in a head-to-head race, 
Endara outpaced Navarro nearly 2 to 1 (27.2 percent to 14.6 
percent). The results of these hypothetical races are shared 
here: 
 
Navarro:  20.0 percent 
Endara:  10.8 percent 
Varela:  3.8 percent 
Martinelli:  40.0 percent 
Don't Know/No Response:  25.5 percent 
 
Martinelli:  39.4 percent 
Herrera:  22.2 percent 
Endara:  10.5 percent 
Varela:  4.2 percent 
Don't know/No Response:  23.7 percent 
 
Vallarino:  5.7 percent 
Navarro:  18.6 percent 
Martinelli:  20.0 percent 
Endara: 11.2 percent 
Don't know/No Response:  24.5 percent 
 
Martinelli:  46.7 percent 
Endara:  15.1 percent 
Don't know/No Response:  38.2 percent 
 
Navarro:  14.6 percent 
Endara:  27.2 percent 
Don't know/No Response:  58.2 percent 
 
------------------------------------ 
Martinelli Seen as Opposition Leader 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU)  Far and away, Martinelli was identified as the 
current leader of the opposition with 37.3 citing him as such 
in an open question.  Endara trailed over 20 points behind 
Martinelli at 14.3 percent.  Pulling up the rear were: 
Varela (4.1 percent), former President Mireya Moscoso (3.2 
percent), and Vallarino (2.4 percent)) 
 
--------------------------- 
Reactions to the Candidates 
--------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Interviewees were also asked to comment regarding 
the image of various likely presidential candidates and 
political parties.  Just looking at the top three responses 
(Note: There were often over a dozen responses.), these 
prospective candidates break out into two groups -- those 
with only positive reactions and those with mixed reactions: 
 
Overall positive reactions: 
-- Martinelli:  good person (13.0 percent); worries about and 
wants to help people (11.6 percent); successful businessman 
(7.3 percent) 
-- Herrera:  good person (23.1 percent); hardworking and 
responsible (15.8 percent); worries about and wants to help 
people (10.1 percent) 
 
Mixed reactions: 
-- Navarro:  good, excellent at his work (21.9 percent); 
hardworking and responsible (6.5 percent); bad, does not 
fulfill expectations (4.7 percent) 
-- Endara:  already too old, past his time (18.6 percent); 
was a good president, did a lot (7.9 percent); bad, does not 
fulfill expectations (7.0 percent) 
-- Varela:  bad, does not fulfill expectations (7.7 percent); 
good, could be a good candidate (7.3 percent); businessman 
(5.5 percent) 
-- Vallarino:  could be a good candidate (9.6 percent); 
businessman, banker (8.4 percent); bad, does work, does not 
fulfill expectations (5.8 percent) 
 
The most recurring negative reaction was "does not fulfill 
expectations." 
 
------------------------ 
Reactions to the Parties 
------------------------ 
 
¶10. (SBU)  Asked to provide their reactions to three parties, 
Martinelli's CD party gets generally positive reactions, 
thought the numbers barely break 10 percent.  In contrast, 
the PRD and Panamenista parties enjoy a core of support for 
being good parties, but receive strong negative reactions as 
well. 
 
Overall positive reactions: 
-- CD:  good, good party (10.1 percent); can help do 
something for the country, people (4.6 percent); helps the 
people, the poor (3.8 percent) 
 
Overall negative reactions: 
-- PRD:  corrupt, dishonest (16.1 percent); excellent, good 
party (11.0 percent); bad, bad party, worst (9.7 percent) 
-- Panamenista:  corrupt, dishonest (9.4 percent); bad, bad 
party, worst (7.2 percent); fight too much, not unified (6.2 
percent) 
 
------------------------- 
Perceptions of Martinelli 
------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) The poll concluded by delving into perceptions of 
Martinelli.  Majorities said that Martinelli was honest and 
not corrupt.  Nearly two-thirds of respondents identified 
strongly with Martinelli's 2004 campaign slogan "Walking in 
the shoes of the people."  Two-thirds also said that 
Martinelli was a leader.  Slightly over two-thirds believed 
that Martinelli would fight for the interests of the people 
and that he was not a traditional politician. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
¶12. (C) Martinelli, a compulsive poll maven, has significant 
reason to be content with this latest poll, but there is also 
a cautionary lesson to be learned from this poll.  He is 
clearly identified in this poll as the opposition leader, 
generally perceived to be the preferred presidential option 
at this stage, and dominates the other opposition candidates. 
 While the common wisdom on the street is that eventually 
Herrera will be the PRD presidential candidate -- a view 
Martinelli has told POLCOUNS that he shares -- were Navarro 
to be the PRD option instead, Martinelli would have a real 
horse race on his hands.  If Herrera's assertions that she 
does not wish to run for president are since (SEPTEL) and 
Navarro becomes the PRD presidential candidate instead, 
Martinelli could be surprised and forced onto his heels until 
he adapts and strives to overcome.  Finally, while Martinelli 
polls well, it remains to be seen whether Martinelli has 
indeed built the nationwide political machine necessary to 
mobilize his support.  Martinelli has invested heavily in 
building such a machine, but it has yet to be tested. 
EATON