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DE RUEHZP #1840/01 3402301
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FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
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INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
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RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 001840 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA:  PATRIOTIC UNION VP BACKS MARTINELLI 
 
REF: PANAMA 1824 
 
Classified By: POLCOUNS Brian R. Naranjo.  Reasons:  1.4 (d). 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. (C) "I think the opposition needs to start unifying behind 
Martinelli," Patriotic Union (UP) VP Anibal Galindo told 
POLCOUNS on December 6, confirming rumors that Galindo was 
coordinating his political activities with Martinelli.  "One 
has to respect the hard work that (Democratic Change (CD) 
party President and presidential candidate) Ricardo 
Martinelli has done to sustain his high level of support and 
to oppose the Torrijos Administration."  Galindo asserted 
that the idea of holding an inter-party primary among 
opposition parties was dead as it was generally believed that 
such a primary would weaken, not strengthen the opposition. 
Ultimately, taking advantage of Panamanians' propensity to 
bandwagon politically, the opposition would negotiate the 
formation of a broad coalition, Galindo said.  In response to 
Galindo's remark that the U.S. Embassy would need to talk 
former President Mireya Moscoso into supporting an opposition 
coalition that was not led by the Panamenista party, POLCOUNS 
told Galindo that the U.S. would not play such a role.  End 
Summary 
 
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Martinelli is the Opposition's Best Shot 
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¶2. (C) "Martinelli is the best option that the opposition 
has," Galindo said.  The opposition should recognize the 
broad base of support that Martinelli has sustained over the 
past year and a half.  "Martinelli has defied predictions 
that his poll numbers would fall, yet he sustains up to forty 
percent approval in some polls."  Asked how an outsider was 
to understand the Patriotic Union (UP) party's direction 
given UP VP Jose Raul Mulino's active public support of 
Panamenista Party candidate Alberto Vallarino, Galindo's 
increasingly public support for Martinelli, and UP President 
Guillermo "Billy" Ford's announcement of his presidential 
candidacy, Galindo said that there was an on-going internal 
debate inside UP on the way ahead. 
 
¶3.  (C) Ford, with the agreement of Mulino, Galindo, and 
other key UP leaders, announced his presidential candidacy 
with the intention of elevating this newly formed party's 
public profile.  Galindo conceded that some portion of Ford 
truly aspired to be President, but added that Ford wanted the 
broader opposition panorama to evolve around him so that he 
could emerge as a unifying leader, much the same way he 
secured the Presidency of UP.  "If the opportunity presents 
itself and Billy's candidacy takes off, great.  All the more 
power to him.  But this is unlikely, and Billy won't hinder 
opposition efforts to back a stronger candidate who can win," 
Galindo asserted. 
 
¶4.  (C) Mulino has long-standing business ties with 
Vallarino; "He's done a lot of legal work for Vallarino," 
Galindo explained.  He asserted that Mulino had not had much 
success in convincing UP members to follow him in support of 
Vallarino.  "Vallarino jerked us around when he was trying to 
decide which party to join.  He came to us and told us he 
wanted to sign up with Patriotic Union.  We were even trying 
to decided on which day Vallarino would do it.  Vallarino was 
even calling us back to tell us which days were bad because 
he would be traveling out of the country.  Then all of a 
sudden the calls stopped.  Next thing we know, Vallarino is 
publicly re-enlisting with the Panamenista Party," Galindo 
recounted.  "That hurt a lot of feelings and sowed mistrust." 
 Galindo then went into the frequently heard belief that 
Vallarino was not "committed" to running for president.  "Why 
should we back a man who might not want to be president?" 
 
¶5.  (C)  "I'm looking to maximize the Patriotic Union's 
political investments," Galindo said.  UP could try to launch 
its own candidate, but realistically would only garner four 
or five percent in the elections.  Join up with a strong 
candidate like Martinelli though, and for the same amount of 
money and political capital invested, Galindo said, and UP 
could be part of government.  Galindo, who acknowledged that 
Martinelli had asked him to be his vice presidential nominee, 
said that UP would develop four to five "well-defined and 
focused proposals" that UP would ask prospective coalition 
partners to endorse.  (Note:  Martinelli campaign advisor 
Jimmy Papademetriou told POLCOUNS that Galindo was working 
closely with Martinelli advisors to shape such proposals 
(RETEL).) 
 
¶6.  (C) The unification of the Solidarity and Liberal parties 
to form UP was intended to create a new force in Panamanian 
politics.  "This was my idea, and my intent was to create a 
new kind of politics."  Martinelli has succeeded in 
positioning himself as a new kind of politician who was 
prepared to do away with politics as usual.  "It's only 
natural that Patriotic Union should seek an alliance with 
Martinelli.  The traditional parties in the longer-term 
should fear what Martinelli is trying to do."  In the end, UP 
would end up reaching agreement on who to back.  Galindo 
added that UP's "small committee" of leading UP luminaries 
would be meeting on December 10 to continue discussions on 
UP's way ahead. 
 
------------------------ -------------------------- 
Inter-party Primary Dead; Will Negotiation Coalition 
------------------------ -------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) "Nobody talks about the inter-party primary any more," 
Galindo said.  "That idea is dead."  Panamanians wanted to 
support a winner, not be labeled losers.  In an inter-party 
primary, Galindo explained, "The losers would not overcome 
their egos and support the winner of an inter-party primary. 
Instead, they'd go off and sulk."  An inter-party primary, 
following each party's own primaries, would only deplete the 
opposition parties' treasuries, wear out their political 
activists, and leave behind too many bruised egos.  Negotiate 
an alliance, Galindo said, and you can mobilize Panamanians' 
"desire to bandwagon" behind a winner, "Martinelli."  If 
Martinelli could continue to build up momentum he could 
secure the support of UP and the Movement of Liberal Republic 
Nationalists (MOLIRENA) and even of the Panamenista Party. 
"A Martinelli-Varela alliance would be very formidable." 
 
¶8.  (C)  Former President Guillermo Endara would go nowhere 
without Panamenista support, and his Moral Vanguard of the 
Nation (VMP) party was merely a vehicle to make money. 
According to Galindo,  "Endara saw that the Solidarity Party 
received USD 80,000 after it ran Endara as its candidate in 
¶2004.  Endara wants his cut of that money.  When Solidarity 
wouldn't give it to him, Endara set up his own party." 
 
¶9. (C) Former President Mireya Moscoso was the driving force 
behind Vallarino.  Moscoso would never accept second billing 
for the Panamenista Party on the opposition ticket.  Galindo 
said, "We may need the U.S. Embassy to talk Moscoso down and 
explain to her the need for the Panamenistas to settle for a 
vice presidency or less on the opposition ticket."  POLCOUNS 
explained to Galindo that the Embassy would not play such a 
role.  Nonetheless, Galindo said he believed that the 
"inevitability" of Martinelli would compel other parties to 
form up behind him. 
 
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Comment 
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¶10.  (C) Three people have been mentioned as vice 
presidential running mates for Martinelli.  Martinelli 
previously told POLCOUNS that he had offered a vice 
presidential slot to Panamenista Party President Juan Carlos 
Varela.  CD VP Roberto Henriquez told POLCOUNS that 
Martinelli had offered him the opportunity to be vice 
presidential running mate.  Now Galindo is asserting the 
same.  Eventually, Martinelli -- who will definitely run for 
president -- will need to show his hand and pick a running 
mate.  While Galindo has clearly bought into Martinelli's 
vision for building an opposition coalition, it is not 
entirely clear that Galindo can deliver the goods that 
Martinelli will need.  UP has been hemorrhaging members in 
recent months, Ford may not have entirely signed on to 
announcing his presidential candidacy only to fold his tents 
later to form a coalition, and Mulino is reportedly not 
entirely happy with his new home in UP.  A weakened and 
divided party may not be the force multiplier that Martinelli 
is seeking.  That said, Galindo's comments offer interesting 
insights into a campaign season that will open in earnest in 
January. 
ARREAGA