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Viewing cable 07NICOSIA1006, Political Polling Center-stage in Cypriot Election

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07NICOSIA1006 2007-12-21 12:46 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Nicosia
Amy Marie Newcomb  01/22/2008 04:16:51 PM  From  DB/Inbox:  ECO-POLShare

Cable 
Text:                                                                      
                                                                           
      
UNCLAS    SENSITIVE     NICOSIA 01006

SIPDIS
CXNICOSI:
    ACTION: DCM EXEC
    INFO:   DAO RAO ECON POL

DISSEMINATION: EXEC
CHARGE: PROG

APPROVED: AMB:RSCHLICHER
DRAFTED: POL:AMYIALLOUROU, GM
CLEARED: DCM:JZIMMERMAN; POL:GMACRIS

VZCZCNCI758
RR RUEHC RUEHZL RUCNDT RUEHBS
DE RUEHNC #1006/01 3551246
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 211246Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8428
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1040
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 001006 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY
SUBJECT: Political Polling Center-stage in Cypriot Election 
Campaign 
 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  With the Cypriot presidential campaign in 
full-swing, pollsters are conducting and presenting "Gallups" nearly 
every week.  Compared to the February 2003 race and earlier 
elections, their numbers have almost doubled.  Cypriot media outlets 
conduct many surveys, and later devote significant coverage to their 
outcomes.  The candidates themselves also poll, both for internal 
reasons and to trumpet successes in winning public support. 
Predictably, the studies have offered differing results, but all 
show a presidential race still too close to call.  Political 
analysts are questioning whether the polls reflect public opinion or 
actually shape it; conventional wisdom holds that many Cypriot 
undecideds cast their ballots for the candidate last leading the 
race.  In hopes of creating an impression of inevitability, 
incumbent President Tassos Papadopoulos depends heavily on remaining 
Number One in the polls, and Embassy contacts reveal his team is 
willing to massage the numbers to do so.  End Summary. 
 
----------------------------- 
POLITICAL POLLING ON THE RISE 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Political polling in Cyprus has never been as prominent as 
in this campaign, slated to culminate with presidential elections in 
mid-February.  The sheer quantity of surveys has doubled since 2003. 
 With marketing and PR companies issuing results monthly -- but on a 
staggered basis -- voters nearly every week confront a different set 
of numbers.  Commissioning many of the studies are Cyprus's three 
national TV stations (state-controlled CyBC, Sigma and Antenna) and 
two leading dailies (pro-government Phileleftheros and opposition 
Politis).  Candidates Papadopoulos, AKEL-supported Dimitris 
Christofias, and DISY-backed Ioannis Kasoulides also order opinion 
polls.  Some are for internal use, to gauge public reaction to 
platform planks, while others are released publicly and publicized, 
especially if the results show the candidate gaining ground. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Picture Sometimes Murky, Deliberately So 
---------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) Embassy contacts in the marketing/PR industry claim the 
candidates' internal polls portray voter sentiments more accurately. 
 Mainland Greek companies -- considered "neutral" and less prone to 
hanky-panky -- conduct most of these surveys.  On the other hand, 
those polls that are released publicly are more dubious, with party 
staff often cooking the results to present a better picture of their 
respective candidates' electoral prospects. 
 
4.  (U) President Papadopoulos has led in every public poll since 
July, when Parliamentary Speaker Christofias formally abandoned the 
governing coalition and stood for election.  Enjoying a significant 
early lead, the incumbent's numbers lately have fallen while his 
opponents' have risen, and most analysts now call the race a virtual 
dead heat.  The most recent poll, ordered by Politis and released 
December 16, placed Papadopoulos in first place with 29.8 percent, 
Christofias a close second with 29.5, and Kasoulides trailing at 
27.3; the 2.5 points separating them fall well within the margin for 
error.  Earlier December surveys showed similar results. 
 
5.  (SBU) Pollsters and political analysts agree that the 
challengers' upsurge is due to the strong party mechanisms 
supporting them.  Papadopoulos lacks this asset, but partly makes up 
for it with the power of the incumbency.  Leading Greek pollster 
Elias Nicolakopoulos who works for Greek MEGA TV, told us that 
Papadopoulos's vote is "soft" and could change relatively easily. 
Christofias's and Kasoulides's are "hard," however, thanks to the 
strong backing of the parties supporting them, Cyprus's largest. 
Their tallies are more likely to increase than decrease in the 
run-up to the elections, Nicolakopoulos continued, as the parties 
energized their bases and sought to roll back defections 
(Papadopoulos reportedly holds 10-13 percent of the AKEL vote and 
9-10 percent of DISY's.) 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Voter Inclination:  Revealed or Directed? 
----------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) As expected, every survey begins with pollsters seeking 
voters' intentions on Election Day, and these numbers typically 
dominate media coverage of polling results.  Running a close second, 
however, are responses to the question "Regardless of whom you are 
supporting, who do you think will win the election?" (Papadopoulos 
maintains a large lead here, scoring 40-45 percent).  In explaining 
why this statistic merits reporting, Embassy contacts note that 
conventional electoral wisdom here holds that Cyprus's body of 
undecided voters often support the candidate leading in the final 
polls (actual results do not bear this out, however, since in 2003 
and some earlier elections, the victor scored "upsets," at least in 
comparison to last-moment, pre-election surveys.)  Campaign staffs 
battle for every "likelihood of victory" point in hopes of securing 
additional undecided voters. 
 
7.  (SBU) In recent weeks, media have carried prominent stories 
debating the lately-oversized role played by polls and pollsters. 
Do the innumerable surveys merely report voter intention, or do they 
shape it? they questioned.  Commentators and politicians leaned 
toward the latter, lamenting that, in such a close election, "number 
crunchers" might have as much a role in determining the outcome as 
candidates' statements and policies.  None was particularly 
convincing in arguing the need for change, however. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
PAPADOPOULOS STRUGGLES TO PRESERVE WINNER'S AURA 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
8.  (SBU) Maintaining a lead in the polls is of fundamental 
importance to Papadopoulos's campaign team.  Critics claim his 
government times "good news" initiatives, from an early-December 
fuel tax reduction to an increase in pensions, to coincide with 
opinion poll taking.  According to contacts, Papadopoulos's campaign 
manager, former Foreign Minister George Lillikas, has instructed his 
team to emphasize the "likelihood of victory" polling at every 
opportunity, aiming to create a public perception that the incumbent 
is the inevitable winner. 
 
9.  (SBU) Christoforos Christoforou, an independent elections 
analyst and communications professor, believes that Lillikas, who is 
a professional pollster, counts on the average person's inability to 
correctly analyze the polls, and is attempting to project 
"likelihood of victory" as the most important result in opinion 
polls.  At the same time, the former FM is trying to divert 
attention from the fact that Papadopoulos is losing ground, 
Christoforou claimed. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
10.  (SBU) Projecting an air of inevitability and staying silent on 
platform specifics made sense when Papadopoulos faced only Ioannis 
Kasoulides, a relatively inexperienced politician recently 
tarred-and-feathered for his "traitorous" support of the 2004 Annan 
Plan.  In Dimitris Christofias, however, the President must confront 
Cyprus's most popular politician, who is backed by its strongest and 
most cohesive party.  Papadopoulos's team took a risk by turning the 
spotlights on opinion polls and trying to use them to shape public 
opinion; losing the aura of a winner would be catastrophic.  As 
analyst Christofou argued, "soft" voters are as quick to jump off 
the bandwagon as jump on. 
 
SCHLICHER