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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 005305 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI IN
SUBJECT: HIMACHAL PRADESH ELECTIONS: BJP EDGE 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 4835 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  With the rhetorical back and forth 
between Congress and the BJP (Bhartiya Janata Party) over the 
US-India nuclear initiative and the Gujarat elections, little 
attention has focused on the December 19 state polls in 
Himachal Pradesh (HP).  Based on anti-incumbency, 
conventional wisdom would have the BJP prevailing in a 
conventional campaign.  On a two-day trip, Poloff found a 
campaign over the perennial issues - corruption, inflation, 
unemployment - with few new ideas or solutions.  But in 
speaking with local journalists, Poloff also found a closer 
race than expected. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Power in HP has traditionally alternated between 
Congress and the BJP, but this year Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj 
Party (BSP) is contesting in all 68 constituencies.  However, 
HP looks to remain a two party state with the BSP unlikely to 
be a factor.  It has managed to attract Congress and BJP 
dissidents with specific disaffections, but failed to 
generate any widespread enthusiasm with the electorate.  The 
BJP still appears poised to win, but in a close race even a 
few BSP seats could tip the results the other direction. 
Votes will be counted on December 28.  End Summary 
 
BJP - Victory within Their Grasp 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) One December 5 Poloff spoke with BJP National 
Secretary and HP election chief Satyapal Jain who exuded 
 
SIPDIS 
confidence that the BJP would win handily at the polls. 
Headlining the BJP ticket is former HP Chief Minister Prem 
Kumar Dhumal.  Jain admitted to some internal disputes within 
the party about its selection of candidates, but said he did 
not believe this would be a factor.  When pressed by Poloff 
on which issues would decide the election, the BJP campaign 
manager offered the usual list: corruption, inflation, 
unemployment and development.  Jain predicted a relatively 
peaceable contest which he contrasted with the noisy election 
in Gujarat.  Asked about the role of the BSP, Jain dismissed 
the party as a real presence in HP and remarked that after 
the HP and Gujarat polls, the BSP would no longer be thought 
of as a potential national party. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) In recent days, BJP leaders L.K. Advani and Rajnath 
Singh have campaigned in HP.  Tellingly, most of their 
remarks focused on national issues such as the US-India 
nuclear initiative or the much fiercer campaign in Gujarat. 
Advani characterized the HP Congress government as 
"dishonest" and railed against "widespread corruption" in the 
state. 
 
Congress - Hoping to Hold On 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Anti-incumbency has been a powerful predictor in HP 
state politics.  The current Congress government of Chief 
Minister Virbhadra Singh realizes it faces an uphill battle. 
When speaking with Poloff, even Congress National Secretary 
and election manager Captain Ved Prakash called the situation 
"challenging."  Not helping matters, Congress faces its own 
internal dissension, as a few tickets were given to new 
candidates close to Sonia Gandhi instead of to longtime HP 
Congress loyalists.  One new candidate had served in Sonia's 
security detail while another is the son of the Gandhi 
family's long-time cook. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The Congress campaign strategy consists mainly of 
claiming to have fostered development during the last five 
years.  Additionally Congress officials are quick to remind 
voters that with a Congress-led government at the Center, HP 
will fare far better in terms of development works and funds. 
 As with the BJP's Jain, Prakash quickly batted away the 
significance of the BSP, and also predicted a straight 
Congress-BJP battle. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Confirming its small state status, high-profile 
Congress leaders have not made the trip to HP. Thus far, only 
HP native Anand Sharma, UPA Minister of State for External 
 
NEW DELHI 00005305  002 OF 003 
 
 
Affairs, has stumped for Congress in HP.  Sonia Gandhi was 
scheduled to headline a rally in Mandi but foul weather 
interceded.  She will reportedly make another attempt at the 
hill state before polls open on December 19. 
 
BSP - Looking to Capitalize on Disaffection 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The full participation of the BSP has injected the 
only drama into the HP polls.  The BSP has selected former 
Congress minister Vijay Singh Mankotia as its Chief Minister 
candidate.  Traditionally, HP has been a two party state with 
all attempts at a third party failing to take hold long term. 
 The BSP did campaign in a few constituencies in the 2003 
elections but garnered only a few percentage points.  This 
year, fresh from its resounding victory in Uttar Pradesh 
(UP), the BSP is contesting for all 68 seats. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Poloff spoke with Kanta Sood, BSP General Secretary 
for HP, as well as other BSP organizers in Shimla, most of 
whom were retired bureaucrats, tired of the cycle of 
corruption.  The BSP does not espouse a particular ideology 
in HP; most BSP candidates are former Congress or BJP 
players.  The only reason they have joined the BSP this time 
around is because they were denied a Congress or BJP ticket 
for one reason or another.  Because of this, what votes the 
BSP does steal from the larger parties will depend upon the 
local popularity of the new BSP candidate.  To the extent the 
BSP garners support based on general sentiment or respect for 
Mankotia, this will more likely dent Congress. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) HP does not have the grinding poverty of some of 
India's more densely populated states.  Therefore, the BSP's 
message does not resonate as strongly with HP Dalits as with 
those in UP for example.  Mankotia himself is a Rajput. 
Fully aware of the differing demographics, the BSP has tried 
to downplay its image as a caste-based party.  "Why would we 
project Vijay Singh Mankotia, a member from the forward 
caste, as the chief minister of Himachal if we were a 
caste-based party," BSP leader Mayawati asked at a recent 
rally in Shimla. 
 
Closer Than It Looks from Delhi 
------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Most press reports from Himachal told of a 
conventional campaign in which anti-incumbency would prevail 
and the BJP would return to power.  In meetings with Poloff, 
party operatives naturally talked up their party's prospects, 
but local journalists told a somewhat different story. 
Poloff met with local journalists who all saw a close race. 
Ashwani Sharma of the Indian Express believed the contest is 
tight but the BJP would pull it off in the end.  Virender 
Thukar, Bureau Chief for Himachal Today, described the race 
as "50/50 with a slight edge to BJP because of 
anti-incumbency."  And Pratibha Chauhan of the Tribune called 
the contest very close.  Chauhan said she had thought early 
on that the BJP would win handily, but that the party had 
made a few missteps in selecting its candidates.  This, she 
believed, had given the Congress a chance to get back into 
the race.  None thought the "social engineering" campaign 
that had worked for the BSP in UP would play in HP. 
 
The More Things Change... 
------------------------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Comment:  From the press coverage in Delhi in 
recent weeks, it would appear that the BJP is riding a wave 
of anti-incumbency to a relatively easy win in HP.  However, 
after speaking with local party officials and journalists in 
HP, the picture that emerges is of the BJP and Congress 
locked in a close race.  The BSP represents a wildcard. 
Mayawati's party has not garnered much grass roots support, 
but in a close election a few seats could tip the balance. 
While neither the Congress nor the BJP has offered any new 
ideas, the BSP offers only the prospect of a new choice.  The 
historical seesaw of power dictates a slight edge to the BJP. 
 Unfortunately, history also dictates that regardless of 
which party wins, little will change for the voters of HP, 
 
NEW DELHI 00005305  003 OF 003 
 
 
one of India's less-developed states.  End Comment. 
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