P 281355Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4018
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 
AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 
AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
CJTF HOA
NSC WASHDC
USCINCSOC MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS NAIROBI 004832 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
FOR S, D, P, G, R, AND AF A/S FRAZER FROM THE AMBASSADOR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM KE
SUBJECT: KENYA'S ELECTIONS - A POSITIVE PROCESS THUS FAR 
 
REF: NAIROBI 4830 AND PREVIOUS 
 
 ¶1.  (SBU)  Summary.  The relatively smooth and peaceful way 
in which the elections were carried out on December 27 
represents a victory first and foremost for the Kenyan people 
and their democracy.  Herculean efforts by the Electoral 
Commission of Kenya (ECK), the responsible statements made by 
the leaders of the main parties, the constructive role played 
by the media, and strong U.S. support and observation all 
contributed to this positive outcome.  All observers share a 
relatively positive view of how the election process was 
carried out.  I have made an informal positive statement to 
the Kenyan media.  It is, however, too early to make final 
pronouncements.  Septel will provide text of a proposed draft 
statement that can be issued by Washington on December 29. 
The vote counting process will not be completed until the 
29th.  The potential for last minute fraud cannot be ruled 
out.  The electoral process in some areas was characterized 
by delays and problems with voting procedures and electoral 
registers, but these were largely resolved in a way that did 
not disenfranchise voters, who turned out in record numbers. 
Initial informal results show opposition candidate Raila 
Odinga leading President Kibaki by between 3 and 8 points, 
but this reporting is uneven and not systematic.  The 
election is still, in our view, too early to call.  End 
summary. 
 
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Election Process Initially Positive, But Not Yet Complete 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Although the results of the Kenyan elections held 
December 27 are just trickling in, initial indications are 
that this election constitutes first and foremost a victory 
for the Kenyan people and their democracy.  It is useful, as 
we make judgments, to think of the electoral process as 
comprised of four phases: the campaign; the election itself; 
the tabulation and announcement of results; and, finally, 
acceptance of the results, including the carrying out of a 
smooth transition regardless of who wins. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Months of intense preparations by the ECK and 
strong support from the international community, particularly 
the U.S., paid off in helping ensure a relatively smooth 
process on election day.  This message reflects initial input 
from the almost 200 U.S. Mission observers deployed 
throughout the country, from the International Republican 
Institute delegation funded by the U.S., from the EU 
observation mission, from the massive Kenyan domestic 
observation effort, from party sources, from media, and from 
the ECK. 
 
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Resolving Problems 
------------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The main difficulties experienced were delays in 
starting voting due to confusion with respect to electoral 
registers and alphabetical voting procedures, but these were 
addressed and there are no reports that this resulted in 
significant disenfranchisement of voters.  There were a few 
small and isolated cases of violence on election day and a 
few cases of alleged fraud.  None of these difficulties 
appeared due to any nationally organized efforts meant to 
disrupt the elections.  The most striking impressions from 
all observers about election day are the peacefulness and 
orderliness of the process.  Even the most problematic and 
contentious constituencies completed voting in an acceptable 
fashion. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) For example, I observed the opening of the polls in 
Kibera slum, which is a key part of Langata constituency, 
where presidential candidate Raila Odinga was a candidate for 
Parliament.  This race was ground zero in the election 
process given widespread fears that extra-legal efforts would 
be made to defeat Odinga there, thus making him ineligible to 
become President (since whoever is elected President must 
also be an elected member of Parliament).  At 0600 there were 
already over 5,000 people lined up to vote at the largest 
polling station in Langata, which is Olympic School in the 
 
Kibera slum.  The bigger problem was confusion over voting 
procedures.  People had been lining up since just after 
midnight.  They were supposed to be guided by ECK officials 
to a line with their specific section of the alphabet (A-C, 
for example).  Since there were 5,000 people already in line 
by the time the ECK officials arrived, this did not happen. 
Each of the 31 polling stations in Olympic had only their 
alphabetic section of the election register.  Hours went by 
as ECK officials sought to resolve the problem.  The ECK 
official in charge of voting there showed commendable 
initiative in this regard.  (She had little choice, telling 
me: "If we don't get voting started soon, these people are 
perfectly capable of burning this place to the ground.") 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Comprehensive electoral registers were eventually 
produced and voting began at 0900.  By that point frustration 
among the 10,000 people waiting to vote was enormous. 
remarkably, however, there was no violence (the only 
potential danger was being inadvertently crushed by the 
crowds, forcing our team to exit via a window at one point). 
Calls from us to ECK were instrumental in getting senior ECK 
officials to act quickly to resolve the issues, and I was 
able to make some reassuring statements to the media.  ECK 
Chairman Kivuitu went to Kibera himself to calm people.  In 
another remarkable testament to the professionalism of ECK 
officials, all those waiting to vote were eventually 
processed, and by late evening Kibera was quiet (a truck 
standing by with riot police was not needed).  The problems 
seen in Kibera were mirrored in some other parts of the 
county.  My observations at six other polling locations in 
Langata constituency, Nairobi, and Kibaki's stronghold of 
Central Province, and those of our observers, indicated that 
most polling stations were relatively well-organized with 
professional ECK teams. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) One embarrassing stumble by the ECK actually became 
one of the day's best examples of Kenya's maturing commitment 
to a responsible democratic process.  The ECK inexplicably 
failed to include Raila Odinga's name in the voting register 
of his own polling station in his Langata constituency, 
resulting in a potential crisis when Odinga was turned away. 
Instead of inflaming the Kibera slum, Odinga simply drove to 
the ECK headquarters and officially protested the omission. 
The ECK made no excuses and acted immediately to amend the 
register to include Odinga's name.  There were a few quick 
press conferences and the situation ended peacefully with 
Odinga casting his vote. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) That the voting process was so relatively smooth 
and peaceful despite delays and organizational problems 
testifies to the commitment of the Kenyan people to 
democratic values.  The leadership of the President and the 
opposition candidates in calling for peaceful elections and 
respect for the results was also crucial to this positive 
outcome. 
 
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Historic Turnout 
---------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The other remarkable aspect of the elections was 
the unprecedented high turnout (which will average somewhere 
between 65 and 80 percent).  Not surprisingly, Kibaki's team 
produced a record turnout of around 85 percent in his home 
area of Central Province, and Odinga produced a high turnout 
in his home area of Nyanza Province.  Many people waited in 
line for six hours or more.  Some of the turnout was clearly 
the result of increased participation by youth.  It appears 
that Odinga will profit from youths' perception that he 
represents a younger generation (though he is 63 to Kibaki's 
76, and both are from the same political class) and that he 
will be more decisive against corruption. 
 
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Observer Statement 
------------------ 
 
¶10.  (SBU) The electoral process thus far deserves a strong 
statement of support, and clearly meets a high standard for 
credible, transparent, free and fair elections.  I made an 
 
informal statement last night that was carried extensively on 
Kenyan television.  It is, however, too early to make 
definitive pronouncements.  The ECK will likely not announce 
final results until December 29.  The EU and Kenyan domestic 
observation missions will make statements on the 29th.  By 
OOB Washington time on the 29th we will send a proposed draft 
for a statement by Washington.  IRI will make a largely 
positive statement the afternoon of the 28th. 
 
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Vote Counting Process 
--------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) The ballot counting process is carried out in 
three stages, each fraught with the potential for fraud. 
First, the ballots are counted at each polling station in 
front of party agents.  Party agents were given copies of the 
results and they were also posted publicly at each station. 
My observations and those of our observers indicate that this 
counting process was generally transparent and efficient. 
Second, the ballots were taken to central tally stations in 
each of the 210 constituencies.  Observations indicate that 
this process has also been carried out well.  Finally, the 
ballots and results of the tally stations are, where 
possible, being called or sent by e-mail to the ECK and then 
physically carried to ECK headquarters.  This process, which 
will be carried out during the course of today and this 
evening, is where the potential for trouble is currently 
greatest.  Ballots can be lost, burned, or otherwise 
destroyed.  Even though results will have been posted at 
polling stations, any interference with the final phase of 
the count would raise serious issues that the ECK would have 
to address (especially if the ballots delivered to the ECK in 
any way differed from results tabulated at polling stations). 
 During this period tensions will rise as inevitable rumors 
circulate (given the history of extensive fraud in all 
previous elections except the one in 2002).  We have 
received, for example, unconfirmed reports that the police 
had to fire into the air at several tally centers to disperse 
unruly crowds worried that ballots were being tampered with. 
Commissioner of Police Ali gave a press conference this 
morning and said all the right things to assure people of his 
commitment to ensure protection for ballots and to highlight 
the non-political role of the police. 
 
------------------------- 
Media and Initial Results 
------------------------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) As a result of its generally responsible, 
extensive, and timely reporting, the media also deserves 
credit for how well the process has proceeded thus far. 
Since before polls closed the media has been reporting on a 
24-hour basis.  They are reporting vote totals based on the 
results posted at polling stations, but making clear that 
only the ECK can announce official results.  The results that 
the media are reporting reflect uneven inputs from around the 
country, but so far show Odinga leading Kibaki by about 
almost 10 points.  Two exit polls (with uncertain 
methodology) also show Odinga winning by 3-8 points.  The 
race is, in our view, still to early to call.  It appears, as 
expected, that these elections will result in a sea change in 
Parliament, with up to 70 percent of incumbents replaced. 
This may in part be due to a wave of ODM support, but is even 
more the result of dissatisfaction with the incumbents' 
perceived inattention to their constituencies and to the 
exorbitant pay raise that they awarded themselves.  Initial 
reports indicate that some of the most corrupt incumbents 
have been defeated. 
 
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Advancing U.S. Interests 
------------------------ 
 
¶13.  (SBU) We will keep the Department closely informed as 
results become clearer.  At this point, there are sound 
reasons to believe that this election process will be a very 
positive example for the continent and for the developing 
world, that it will represent a watershed in the 
consolidation of Kenyan democracy, and that it will, 
 
therefore, significantly advance U.S. interests.  The Kenyan 
people will view the U.S. as having played an important and 
neutral role in encouraging a positive election process. 
 
 
RANNEBERGER