VZCZCXYZ0006
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #4803/01 3521240
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 181240Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3941
INFO RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 9745
RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 5629
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 4963
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 2457
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 1749
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 2505
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 2430
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS NAIROBI 004803 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL KE
SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: COUNTDOWN 5: 9 DAYS AWAY 
 
REF: NAIROBI 4759 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (SBU)  SUMMARY:  The latest opinion polls show Odinga in 
the lead.  All three major candidates express public 
confidence, while some of their prominent supporters express 
private gloom.  There exists a theoretical possibility that 
Odinga or Kibaki could win the national vote while still 
failing to qualify for presidential office due to failure to 
win election to parliament (Odinga) or failure to clear the 
hurdle of at least 25 percent support in five of the eight 
provinces (Kibaki).  END SUMMARY. 
 
Three Polls Show Odinga in the Lead 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  On Saturday, 15 December The Nation newspaper 
published polls from three firms:  INFOTRAK Harris (IH), 
Strategic Research (SR) and Consumer Insight (CI).  All three 
show ODM's Raila Odinga in the lead, although the Consumer 
Insight poll shows that lead as within the margin for error. 
The results are as follows: 
 
Raila Odinga (ODM): 45.8 (IH), 46 (SR), 42.5 (CI); AVG: 44.7 
Mwai Kibaki (PNU): 35.9 (IH), 36 (SR), 40.8 (CI); AVG: 37.5 
Kalonzo Musyoka (ODM-K): 16.4 (IH), 17 (SR), 15.1 (CI); AVG: 
16.1 
 
As regards momentum, Odinga is up 1.5 percent (averaging the 
three polls) over the previous week.  Kibaki is down 1.5 
percent.  Musyoka is static. 
 
Public Confidence, Private Gloom, Complex Scenarios 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶3. (SBU)  All three first tier candidates are confidently 
predicting victory in public.  Party insiders have expressed 
private doubts to us.  ODM insiders worry that blowback from 
the mishandled party nomination exercises may cost them 
support in recently won regions like Kisii where they had 
previously made important gains, but where that support was 
shallow.  ODMers also express concern that they may have 
peaked too early in Rift Valley Province.  There are signs 
that the ODM wave there is beginning to recede.  A few ODMers 
also worry about the possibility Odinga could lose his 
parliamentary seat in Nairobi's Langata constituency, though 
most scoff at the idea.  The Kenyan constitution requires 
election to Parliament to qualify for presidential office. 
 
¶4. (SBU) While some PNU insiders have marshaled facts and 
figures to prove they will win on turnout, others say they 
have turned their attention to preserving their individual 
interests in an Odinga-ruled Kenya.  PNUers also express 
concern that Kibaki could theoretically win the national vote 
on the strength of turnout in his native Mount Kenya region 
(Central Province and the Meru/Embu districts of Eastern 
Province), but still fail to win at least 25 percent in five 
of the eight provinces (a constitutional requirement to win 
the presidency).  Kibaki's poll numbers are dangerously low 
in Nyanza (principally Luo), Western (Luhya), Northeastern 
(Somali), and Coast provinces (fifty percent Muslim).  In the 
event Kibaki won the national vote but failed to clear the 25 
percent support rule, there would be a runoff between himself 
and the next placed finisher (presumably Odinga).  In this 
scenario, Musyoka's ethnic Kamba base would likely determine 
the outcome, probably in Kibaki's favor.  (The Kamba are 
culturally, linguistically and historically close to the 
Kikuyu, but not to the same extent as the Meru and Embu. 
Kibaki consistently polls as the second most popular 
politician in Kambaland, after native son Musyoka.) 
 
¶5. (SBU) Musyoka continues to insist publicly that he will 
remain in the race to the end, and that he will win.  We 
believe he knows better.  In the event that Odinga loses his 
constituency, and so is eliminated from the race (unlikely, 
but possible), then the candidate with the next highest vote 
count, presumably Kibaki, becomes President.  If however, the 
candidate with the second highest vote count (Kibaki) does 
not clear the hurdle of 25 percent support in five of the 
eight provinces, then a runoff would be held between the two 
candidates who got the highest number of votes AND/AND won 
their constituency races (presumably Kibaki and Musyoka).  In 
such an eventuality (however unlikely), then Musyoka would 
probably receive most of Odinga's support, and so win the 
presidency.  More likely, Musyoka will seek a post-election 
parliamentary alliance with the first-round winner, exacting 
the best price he can get.  Intriguingly, Kibaki has not 
named a running mate, unlike Odinga and Musyoka. 
 
RANNEBERGER