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UNCLAS NAIROBI 004759 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL KE
SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: COUNTDOWN 4: 13 DAYS AWAY: 
PARLIAMENTARY CRYSTAL BALL EDITION 
 
REF: NAIROBI 4601 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (SBU)  SUMMARY:  The Political Section compared notes with 
other well informed political observers on prominent 
government and opposition MPs likely to be defeated in the 
parliamentary contest.  The results appear below.  In total, 
we expect the defeat of 136 MPs out of a total of 210 (65 
percent).  Some defeated MPs, including ministers, may return 
as nominated rather than elected members of parliament, 
should their parties opt to do so.  END SUMMARY. 
 
65 Percent Turnover Predicted in Parliament 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  The consensus among Nairobi political analysts is 
that about 65 percent of Members of Parliament seeking 
re-election will be disappointed.  There is a strong 
anti-incumbent mood among the electorate this year as regards 
the legislature.  Since 22 MPs have already dropped out (two 
retirements and 20 eliminated in the primaries), we expect at 
least another 114 to suffer defeat.  There is no reliable 
polling data available at the constituency level.  However, 
informed opinion has identified a number of government and 
opposition heavyweights clearly headed for defeat and others 
who are weak contenders, but could still pull off a victory. 
Some defeated MPs, including ministers, may return as 
nominated rather than elected members of parliament.  Parties 
are allocated a certain number of nominated seats based on 
their level of representation. 
 
Some Ministers Likely to Lose their Seats 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Among those in the Kibaki camp, we count the 
following luminaries (including some ministers) as clearly 
headed for defeat or in serious trouble: 
 
-- Chris Murungaru (Notorious for corruption; Murungaru will 
lose to a pro-Kibaki challenger who won massively in the PNU 
primary.) 
 
-- George Saitoti (Minister of Education and notorious for 
his role in the Goldenberg scandal; pro-Kibaki ethnic Kikuyu 
vote is split and pro-opposition vote is coalesced behind a 
U.S. based ethnic Maasai preacher.  The constituency 
stretches from Kikuyu-dominated exurbs of Nairobi to 
Maasai-dominated rural areas.) 
 
-- Raphael Tuju (Foreign Minister who by all accounts has 
done a lot for his constituency, but is bucking the Pro-Raila 
Odinga consensus of his Luo community.) 
 
-- Mukhisa Kituyi (An effective Trade Minister, unpopular in 
his constituency partly due to allegations he misappropriated 
Constituency Development Funds.  He is also faulted for not 
supporting his ethnic Bukusu/Luhya FORD-Kenya party.  He will 
lose to another pro-Kibaki candidate.) 
 
-- Morris Dzoro (Tourism Minister; his party rank and file 
resent his alliance with Kibaki since the party stands for 
decentralization and Kibaki stands for a strong unitary 
state.  He is considered by his constituents to be 
inaccessible and disinterested in their welfare.) 
 
-- Wangari Maathai (Assistant Environment Minister, Nobel 
Peace Prize winner, her constituents complain she is 
constantly traveling, pays scant attention to them and is 
insufficiently loyal to Kibaki.) 
 
-- John Serut (From the violence-plagued Mt. Elgon region; he 
publicly warned all potential challengers that it would be 
dangerous for anyone to campaign against him as his people 
loved him so much they might harm his rivals.  He is credibly 
accused of attempted rape and organizing communal violence.) 
 
-- Newton Kulundu (Labor Minister, nicknamed "the drunkard.") 
 
-- Mohammed Abdi Mahamud (Minister of Regional Development, 
constituents complain he has abandoned them.) 
 
¶4. (SBU) Among those in the Kibaki camp whose campaigns are 
in trouble, but could still win: Vice President Moody Awori 
(he did not carry his constituency in the 2005 referendum, 
his constituency is now solidly opposition), Gideon Moi 
(former President Moi's son, notorious for corruption), 
Nicholas Biwott (notorious for corruption and violence), 
Joseph Munyao (Livestock Minister), and Njenga Karume 
(Defense Minister, has a wealthy pro-Kibaki challenger). 
 
Some Raila Odinga Allies Also in Trouble 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Among Raila Odinga supporters, we consider the 
following former MPs to be headed for defeat or at serious 
risk of defeat: 
 
-- William Nyagah (A member of Raila Odinga's "Pentagon" 
leadership group, he is the only prominent Kikuyu in Raila 
Odinga's camp.) 
 
-- William ole Ntimama (An elderly, anti-Kikuyu firebrand, 
his constituency was previously overwhelmingly rural Maasai, 
but encroachment by Nairobi exurbs have brought in many new 
Kikuyu voters, to his dismay.) 
 
-- Peter Anyang' Nyang'o ("The Professor" is a stalwart of 
opposition politics, an intellectual who serves as Raila's 
right-hand man, Executive Secretary of the Orange Democratic 
Movement, but his constituents consider that he has neglected 
them in favor of his role in national politics.  He will lose 
to another pro-Raila Odinga candidate.) 
 
¶6. (SBU) Among those whose candidacies we consider to be in 
serious trouble are Charity Ngilu (former Health Minister, 
head of the NARC party, allied to Odinga's ODM), Najib Balala 
(a member of the ODM "Pentagon"), Ramadhan Kajembe (many 
pro-Odinga voters in this Mombasa constituency felt the party 
imposed his candidacy), and Fred Gumo (notorious for 
corruption, political violence and extortion in his Nairobi 
constituency). 
 
We Will Report Accuracy of Our Predictions 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶7. (U) Following the election, we will report the accuracy of 
our predictions. 
RANNEBERGER