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UNCLAS NAIROBI 004745 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL KE
SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: CREDIBLE VOTE LIKELY, BUT WE'RE 
MONITORING TRIP WIRES 
 
REF: A. NAIROBI 4647 AND PREVIOUS 
 
     ¶B. NAIROBI 3675 
 
¶1. (SBU)  SUMMARY: Less than three weeks from the election, 
we remain confident that the exercise will be generally free 
and fair.  This confidence is based on six pillars: an 
independent and non-partisan electoral commission, free and 
vibrant civil society organizations and media, responsible 
behavior by police, vigilance on the part of political 
rivals, a robust domestic and international observation 
effort, and Kenya's free political climate.  Political 
violence, appeals to ethnic hatred, misuse of government 
resources, subversion of ECK procedures, and partisan 
behavior of provincial officials are our chief areas of 
concern about Kenya's electoral process.  For each, we have 
specific trip wires that would lead to intervention, either 
publicly or privately, as circumstances warrant.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Indicators Point to Fair, Transparent & Credible Election 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU)  We continue to closely monitor all aspects of 
Kenya's election process, looking for opportunities to bring 
USG influence to bear on behalf of our goal: a fair, 
transparent and peaceful election.  Less than three weeks 
from the election, we remain confident that the election will 
be generally free and fair.  This confidence is based on six 
pillars: an independent and non-partisan electoral 
commission, free and vibrant civil society organizations and 
media, responsible behavior by police, vigilance on the part 
of political rivals, a robust domestic and international 
observation effort, and Kenya's free political climate. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK):  The ECK 
remains firmly under the control of its Chairman, Samuel 
Kivuitu.  This is a good thing.  There were fears in some 
quarters that newly appointed commissioners, many of whom are 
presumed to be pro-Kibaki partisans,  would overwhelm the 
non-partisan Chairman and diminish his authority.  This has 
not happened.  Kivuitu has skillfully managed the commission 
and kept public opinion on his side.  Kivuitu managed a 
number of administrative reforms and compromises that augur 
well for election day success.  For example, realizing that 
the voter register contains numerous erroneous entries, 
Kivuitu pushed through a ruling, with political party 
agreement, that double registered voters would retain their 
franchise as long as they sign a binding agreement to vote 
only once.  Those registered more than twice would be purged 
from the rolls.  Kivuitu also managed to pass a similar 
ruling concerning distribution to polling officials of the 
commission's voter register, again with consent of the 
political parties.  He consistently prioritizes broad 
participation and transparency over strict controls that 
unfairly exclude voters, given the problematic state of the 
voter rolls. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Kivuitu has also won respect by striking out 
publicly against senior politicians and government officials 
who make unfounded accusations against his commission. The 
Electoral Commission of Kenya's strong record in 
administering elections in a non-partisan manner is our 
principal reason for predicting a credible process. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Civil Society & Media: Kenya's vibrant, free and 
outspoken civil society groups and media also inspire 
confidence in the process.  Every few days a major civil 
society group holds a well attended press conference to 
highlight an aspect of the process and finger institutions 
and individuals who they hold responsible for malfeasance. 
The media is covering the process minutely, even reporting on 
the arrival of freshly printed ballot papers and their 
conditions of storage.  Political advertising is robust and 
unfettered.  Debate on the editorial pages rages.  The 
electronic media has been equally engaged, although some 
outlets are developing a reputation for biased coverage. 
Still, in today's Kenya there is such a diversity of voices 
available to voters that no candidate can credibly claim to 
be shut out. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Kenya Police Service:  The police force has so 
far surprised its many critics by behaving in a professional 
and politically neutral manner.  Police have detained 
political miscreants from both sides, including two Kenyan 
Administrative Police officials caught distributing 
anti-Raila hate literature. Police have also questioned an 
Assistant Minister regarding his involvement in the transport 
of weapons found in his official vehicle.  Many lament the 
long-standing law enforcement tradition in Kenya of pursuing 
foot soldiers while sparing their well known and politically 
connected generals.  For the most part, this has not changed, 
although we know some practitioners of political violence 
have been directly warned to desist.  Under civil society and 
international community pressures (including the U.S. 
Mission), the police commissioner publicly agreed to provide 
security to women candidates, who suffer more than their male 
colleagues from violent intimidation.  We have heard from 
numerous women candidates that implementation of the 
commissioner's promise has been inconsistent so far.  We are 
advocating a more thorough and systematic treatment of this 
serious problem. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Mutual Vigilance:  The fact that this election is so 
competitive is in itself a cause for confidence.  The two top 
parties are watching one another's every move, and declaiming 
from the rooftops any perceived malpractices of their 
opponents.  Opposition leader Odinga is especially prone to 
launching pre-emptive strikes against his opponents and 
(unfairly in our view) against the ECK.  All sides have 
senior bureaucrats in their camp ready to leak news of any 
electoral skullduggery to the concerned parties. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Domestic & International Observation:  ECK has 
welcomed and encouraged election observer missions, both 
domestic and international.  Religious organizations and a 
wide array of civil society groups, some of which have 
considerable experience in election observation, are striving 
to field at least one observer in each of the 27,000 polling 
stations.  Twenty-five resident diplomatic missions, the 
European Union, the Commonwealth, and the African Union will 
also field observation missions.  The US Mission will field 
over 150 observers and facilitate an official observer 
delegation headed by former Assistant Secretary Constance 
Newman. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Civil Freedom:  Finally, Kenya's five-year old 
climate of civil freedom contributes to our confidence in the 
process.  As one elderly rural voter in a remote region told 
PolCouns, "Under Moi and Kenyatta we did whatever the 
District Commissioner and his men told us to do.  No one 
wanted to pay the price of refusing them.  These days when 
the District Officer and his chiefs tell us to support the 
government, we tell them to their face that we are free to 
vote for whoever we want." 
 
Trip Wires: Looking Out for Danger Signs 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) Political violence, appeals to ethnic hatred, 
misuse of government resources, subversion of ECK procedures, 
and partisan behavior of provincial officials are our chief 
areas of concern about Kenya's electoral process.  For each, 
we have specific trip wires that would lead to intervention, 
either publicly or privately as circumstances warrant. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Political Violence:  Political violence is being 
practiced by some parliamentary candidates from all three 
major political parties.  We are not witnessing the 
widescale, centrally organized political-ethnic violence that 
characterized Kenya's first two multiparty elections in 1992 
and 1997.  When violence threatens to escalate from isolated 
incidents to wholesale destruction, which is currently the 
case in the Molo region of Rift Valley Province, public 
outcry and protests from civil society, religious 
organizations and political leadership is fierce.  We have 
added our voice to condemn both isolated incidents (the 
attack on a woman candidate in Eastern Province, see ref B) 
and more widescale violence.  Our trip wire for changing our 
positive view of the election process is widespread political 
violence targeting specific communities so as to change 
turnout (as occurred in '92 and '97).  So far, this level of 
 
violence has only occurred in parts of one constituency, and 
so does not have ramifications for the national vote.  The 
Mount Elgon clashes (Western Province) are chronic and not 
directly related to the election.  We will continue to 
implement specific programs to curb violence, about which we 
are reporting septel. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Appeals to Ethnic Hatred:  We have seen extremely 
offensive, hateful political statements and literature aimed 
at encouraging ethnic hatred emanating from the two largest 
parties (Kibaki's PNU and Odinga's ODM).  The great majority 
of such material is coming from the Kibaki camp, despite the 
President's frequent admonitions for his supporters to avoid 
such tactics.  The media and civil society have vociferously 
condemned hate propaganda.  The police have arrested 
distributors of this material, including those acting on 
behalf of the Kibaki campaign.  We have brought to the 
attention of leaders in both camps specific examples of hate 
speech we have heard and read.  Our trip wire for hate speech 
effecting the election is widescale use of vernacular radio 
to spread extremist messages (a la Radio Mille Collines in 
Rwanda). 
 
¶13. (SBU) Misuse of Government Resources: Kenya's Human 
Rights Commission and the ECK have both documented and 
condemned misuse of official resources for campaign purposes. 
 The press and civil society have done the same.  The police 
have acted against officials using government vehicles for 
campaign purposes.  Still, the practice continues, but with 
more restraint than was the case in past elections.  Our trip 
wire for misuse of government resources is massive, blatant 
and unrestrained use of government funding and assets on 
behalf of the president's campaign to the extent that it 
threatens to seriously tilt the playing field in his favor. 
 
¶14. (SBU) Subversion of ECK: Partisan ECK commissioners could 
use their authority to influence ECK polling clerks, 
presiding officers and returning officers to depress the vote 
in certain areas and pad it in others.  Conceivably, they 
could also attempt to substitute pre-marked ballots or use 
other rigging schemes.  There are a number of controls in 
place (such as vote counting at the polling station in full 
public view) that would likely defeat most such plans.  We 
strongly expect that Chairman Kivuitu would keep his word to 
resign in a publicly spectacular fashion if the commission 
was subverted in this fashion.  Our trip wire is ECK 
permissiveness of fraud extensive enough to effect the 
outcome. 
 
¶15. (SBU) Partisan Officials:  The provincial administration 
answers directly to the Minister of Internal Security and 
Provincial Administration, John Michuki.  His father was a 
provincial official under the British, as was he as a young 
man.  Michuki is definitely subscribes to the old school 
"top-down" view of governance.  We have sen indications that 
Michuki has instructed his officials to support the 
government.  In some areas this indeed appears to be 
happening, but to no great effect.  In other areas provincial 
officials appear to be mindful of the possibility that they 
may be serving under a new government in a few weeks time, 
and so are behaving in a reasonably neutral fashion.  Our 
trip wire is widespread, blatant and effective partisan 
behavior on part of the administration to the extent that the 
election outcome is or will be effected. 
 
 
RANNEBERGER