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UNCLAS NAIROBI 004647 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL KE
SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS:  ANALYSIS OF PARLIAMENTARY 
CANDIDATES LIST 
 
REF: A. NAIROBI 4601 AND PREVIOUS 
 
     ¶B. NAIROBI 2215 
 
¶1. (U)  SUMMARY:   Nearly ten percent of outgoing Members of 
Parliament (MPs) were eliminated in party nomination 
exercises while a further 25 percent lost major party 
nominations and took refuge with smaller parties where their 
prospects for reelection are exceedingly dim.  President 
Kibaki's Party of National Unity (PNU) coalition is by far 
the most incumbent-friendly major party.  Some minor parties 
are wholly owned by individuals widely alleged to be 
criminals.  Women will contest in nearly 60 percent of 
constituencies, but make up just under ten percent of all 
candidates for Parliament.  We expect an increase in elected 
women MPs, but still under ten percent of Parliament.  Kibaki 
supporters, both within and outside the PNU coalition, 
account for nearly half of the 2,548 parliamentary 
candidates.  In many constituencies outside Kibaki's 
stronghold of Central Province this means that the pro-Kibaki 
vote will be split, reducing chances for a pro-Kibaki 
parliamentary majority even should he win the presidential 
contest.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Incumbents Take An Initial Hit, But Most Are On the Ballot 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶2. (U)  Of the 210 elected members of Kenya's 9th Parliament, 
two have voluntarily retired (including the Assistant 
Minister for Home Affairs) and 18 sought re-election but were 
eliminated in the party nomination exercises, including 
another Assistant Minister (Sports and Gender).  A further 50 
former members of parliament lost their party primaries, but 
secured nomination certificates from other parties (either 
smaller allied parties of the three major parties, or 
outright fringe parties). 
 
¶3. (U) One hundred forty former MPs (two-thirds of the total) 
are running on the tickets of significant parties: 
 
Party of National Unity (pro-Kibaki coalition): 
52 ex-MPs out of 134 candidates (39 percent) 
 
KANU (pro-Kibaki, former ruling party): 
24 ex-MPs out of 90 candidates (26 percent) 
 
FORD-People (pro-Kibaki ethnic Kisii party): 
9 ex-MPs out of 107 candidates (8 percent) 
 
NARC-Kenya (a pro-Kibaki party): 
9 ex-MPs out of 58 candidates (15 percent) 
 
-------------- 
 
Orange Democratic Movement (main opposition party): 
28 ex-MPs out of 189 candidates (15 percent) 
 
NARC (ODM affiliate): 
7 ex-MPs out of 73 candidates (10 percent) 
 
-------------- 
 
Orange Democratic Movement of Kenya (opposition): 
18 ex-MPs out of 131 candidates (14 percent) 
 
The PNU stands out as the party most friendly to ex-MPs, 
befitting its establishment image.  Among all the pro-Kibaki 
parties, there are a total of 126 ex-MPs out of 1,212 
candidates (10 percent). 
 
Minor Parties & their Backers 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U)  Some minor parties are significant due to their 
backers.  The Manzingira Greens Party of Kenya was founded by 
Nobel Laureate Wangari Maathai.  Her party has a clear 
political ideology (environmentalist) and is aligned with the 
pro-Kibaki PNU.  It is only fielding 49 candidates, of whom 
13 are women (26 percent). 
 
¶5. (U) Four notorious criminals have their own parties to run 
 
on.  Kamlesh Patni, the alleged chief organizer of the 
Moi-era Goldenberg scandal, literally bought the registration 
certificate of the Kenya National Democratic Alliance party 
and has recruited 170 candidates to run on its ticket, 
including himself.  While not formally aligned with Kibaki's 
PNU coalition, Patni is expected to support the President. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Harun Mwau, widely believed to be a major 
narco-trafficker, runs the Party of Independent Candidates of 
Kenya.  It is not formally affiliated with any other party 
and has business interests with figures from all Kenya's 
political camps.  William Kabogo Gitau, an ex-MP and another 
widely-alleged drug dealer and violent thug, is running for 
parliament on the ticket of the obscure Sisi Kwa Sisi Party 
of Kenya, which is pro-Kibaki. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Ndura Waruinge (AKA "Noriega") is the founder of the 
Mungiki, Kenya's largest criminal organization (see ref B). 
He is challenging opposition leader Raila Odinga in his 
Nairobi parliamentary constituency of Langata.  Waruinge 
claims to have left the Mungiki, but PolCouns has yet to meet 
an informed Kenyan who believes this.  The usual punishment 
for defection from the Mungiki is death.  Waruinge openly 
employs political thugs who cultivate the image of Mungiki 
members.  Waruinge's United Democratic Party of Kenya is not 
affiliated with the President's PNU coalition, but supports 
Kibaki. 
 
Women Candidates 
---------------- 
 
¶8. (U) A total of 248 women parliamentary candidates will 
contest the election.  Higher figures produced by civil 
society organizations are erroneous.  This amounts to about 
ten percent of all candidates contesting.  Women candidates 
are running in 124 constituencies (59 percent of all 
constituencies).  Among the major parties, the Orange 
Democratic Movement of Kenya (Kalonzo Musyoka) has the 
highest share of women candidates (11 percent), while the 
Orange Democratic Movement (Raila Odinga) has the lowest (5 
percent).  Kibaki's Party of National Unity registers 8 
percent women candidates.  In the last parliament, there were 
nine elected women MPs (in addition to nominated women MPs). 
We expect this election to produce a greater number of women 
MPs, but still under ten percent of the total. 
 
Distribution of Candidates by Party 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) There are a total of 2,548 candidates for Parliament, 
an average of about 12 candidates per constituency or 23 
candidates per party (108 parties are contesting 
parliamentary seats).  A constituency in Nyanza Province is 
being contested by 33 candidates, the record for this 
election.  Three constituencies, including President Kibaki's 
Othaya constituency, have only two candidates.  The most 
significant parties are as follows, with some description of 
their regional representation: 
 
Orange Democratic Movement (opposition): 
190 out of 210 constituencies (90 percent) 
All regions of the country, but only partial coverage in 
Central Province (Kibaki stronghold) and southern districts 
of Eastern Province (Musyoka stronghold). 
 
NARC (an Orange Democratic Movement affiliate): 
73 out of 210 constituencies (35 percent) 
Throughout the country, except for Central Province and 
Northeastern Province. 
 
Number of constituencies contested by pro-Odinga candidates: 
191 
 
Number of constituencies where pro-Odinga candidates compete 
against one another: 72 
About ten percent of all candidates (263 total) are running 
on pro-Odinga tickets. 
 
--------------------- 
 
Party of National Unity (pro-Kibaki coalition): 
135 out of 210 constituencies (64 percent) 
All areas of the country except Nyanza Province. 
 
Kenya African National Union (pro-Kibaki): 
90 out of 210 constituencies (43 percent) 
KANU often calls itself Kenya's only truly national party, 
yet it can only field candidates in less than half of all 
constituencies. 
 
Other pro-Kibaki parties:  987 candidates 
 
Number of constituencies contested by pro-Kibaki candidates: 
nearly all 
 
Number of constituencies where pro-Kibaki candidates compete 
against one another: nearly all. 
 
Nearly half of all candidates are running on pro-Kibaki 
tickets, which means that in nearly every constituency in the 
country pro-Kibaki candidates are running against one 
another, splitting the pro-Kibaki vote.  This does not hurt 
the president in his strongholds, where any potential winner 
will enter the pro-Kibaki camp in parliament.  However, in 
mixed areas like Coast, Western and Rift Valley provinces, 
multiple pro-Kibaki candidates improves the chances of 
opposition candidates since only a plurality of the vote is 
required to win. 
 
---------------------- 
 
Orange Democratic Movement of Kenya (opposition): 
131 out of 210 constituencies (62 percent) 
Southern districts of Eastern province, Coast, Northeastern 
and Rift Valley provinces. 
 
Labour Party of Kenya (ODM-K affiliate party): 
16 out of 210 constituencies (7 percent) 
Western province, parts of Coast Province and southern 
districts of Eastern province. 
 
All pro-Musyoka parties: 
147 candidates in 131 constituencies out of 210 
constituencies (62 percent) 
 
The Labour Party is competing against its ODM-K ally in all 
16 of its parliamentary races.  The de facto head of the 
Labour Party, Kalonzo Musyoka's ODM-K running mate, is 
running on an ODM-K, not a Labour party, ticket. 
 
Party Symbols 
------------- 
 
¶10. (U)  Party symbols as printed on ballots are an essential 
issue to older rural voters in Kenya, especially women in 
remote regions that have not benefited from the country's 
generally high literacy rate.  The biggest party symbol 
controversy concerns the two rival opposition parties, the 
Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and the Orange Democratic 
Movement of Kenya (ODM-K).  ODM's symbol is an orange, 
naturally enough.  ODM-K's symbol is 1 1/2 oranges, which 
causes confusion.  ODM and ODM-K rallies always include 
exhortations to vote for the correct number of oranges. 
 
¶11. (U) With 108 parties contesting at the parliamentary 
level, a wide variety of symbols are in play.  Microparties 
in Kenya are often referred to as "briefcase parties."  The 
National Republican Party of Kenya, with a sole parliamentary 
candidate, befittingly has a briefcase as its party symbol. 
Intriguingly, the Jubilee People's Party of Kenya (two 
candidates) has chosen handcuffs as its party symbol. 
RANNEBERGER