P 171404Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5890
INFO CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
VIENNA IAEA POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY
DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS MOSCOW 005841 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KNNP ENRG PREL RS IN
SUBJECT: ATOMSTROYEXPORT'S APPROACH TO THE "NUCLEAR 
RENAISSANCE" 
 
Sensitive But Unclassified. Not for internet distribution. 
 
¶1. (SBU)  During a recent meeting at a Moscow think-tank, an 
official from Atomstroyexport outlined priorities for the 
construction of Russian nuclear power plants abroad.  China, 
India, Iran, and Bulgaria are their top target markets.  The 
official downplayed the importance of the failure of Russia 
and India to sign a nuclear cooperation deal during PM 
Singh's recent visit to Moscow. End Summary. 
 
"We're all Realists" 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  On December 13, Alexei Ubeev, deputy head of 
Russia's nuclear export company Atomstroyexport, chaired a 
meeting at the Center for Policy Studies in Russia (PIR), a 
prominent Moscow think-tank specializing in nonproliferation 
and security issues.  The seminar dealt with Russia's role in 
the "nuclear renaissance."  The seminar included 
representatives from the MFA, diplomatic missions, and 
academic institutions.  Ubeev provided an overview of recent 
consolidations and international activities of major Western 
nuclear companies, including Westinghouse-Toshiba and Areva. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  In characterizing the recent increase in 
international nuclear cooperation deals, Ubeev observed that 
"we're all realists."  Economic and market forces, not 
political calculations, are driving deals.  He cautioned that 
geography and existing market penetration largely determined 
where the big players would succeed.  For example, 
Westinghouse and Areva have captured the North American and 
Western European markets.  While Africa and South-East Asia 
have little experience and weak infrastructure to ride the 
nuclear renaissance wave, India and China, with their booming 
economies, represent the greatest potential. 
 
India and China: Key Nuclear Markets 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU)  Ubeev ranked Atomstroyexport's priorities over the 
coming years as follows: 1. Bulgaria, India, China, and Iran; 
¶2. Kazakhstan, Armenia, Slovakia, Czech Republic; 3. Turkey, 
Morocco, and possibly Egypt.  He said the Indian market was 
"very interesting."  However, he warned that there are two 
big obstacles that need to be overcome before expanding 
operations in India: nuclear trade restrictions by the 
Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and lingering questions over 
IAEA safeguards at India's civilian facilities.   He 
dismissed media reports noting failure to sign a Russia-India 
nuclear cooperation deal during PM Singh's visit to Moscow 
last month.  Ubeev said that Russia can still continue 
construction of two reactors at Kudankulam despite NSG 
restrictions because the 1988 agreement for their 
construction has a grandfather clause. 
BURNS 
 
 
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