VZCZCXRO5545
PP RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHCN
DE RUEHCI #0382/01 3531121
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 191121Z DEC 07
FM AMCONSUL KOLKATA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1800
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 1698
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI PRIORITY 0772
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI PRIORITY 0777
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 0511
RUEHGO/AMEMBASSY RANGOON 0366
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 0510
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 0119
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0413
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 2202

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KOLKATA 000382 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PTER PGOV PHUM ASEC BM IN
SUBJECT: NAGA INSURGENTS SEEK UNITY PRIOR TO NAGALAND STATE ASSEMBLY 
ELECTIONS 
 
REF: KOLKATA 0377 
 
¶1.   (SBU) Summary.  December 3-7, ConGen and Embassy New Delhi 
PolCouns visited Nagaland and discussed with officials and 
contacts the Naga insurgencies and preparations for the February 
2008 state assembly elections.  While many decried the 
internecine violence among the insurgent factions, most 
contacts, even senior government officials such as Chief 
Minister Neiphiu Rio, supported the insurgents' goal of autonomy 
for a greater Nagaland, incorporating Nagas from other Indian 
states and even in Burma.   However, views were split on the 
possible results of the impending state assembly election. 
Naturally, CM Rio expressed confidence that his Naga Freedom 
Party (NFP)-led Democratic Alliance of Nagaland (DAN) coalition 
aligned to the national opposition National Democratic Alliance 
(NDA) would return to power.  However, Rio has experienced many 
defections, with cabinet ministers resigning to join the state 
opposition Congress Party.  Rio's Congress opposition believes 
that, with a Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) as 
the national government, the state opposition will be able to 
defeat the Rio's NDA coalition. End Summary. 
 
--------------------- 
Naga Insurgency 
--------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) When India became independent in 1947, the Nagas (then 
inhabitants of the Naga Hills in undivided Assam) were unwilling 
to be part of the new republic, considering themselves distinct 
from Indians, and launched an armed struggle for a sovereign 
Naga homeland.  The Naga community consists of 17 major tribes 
and at least 20 sub-tribes.  They inhabit primarily the present 
state of Nagaland, and areas in Manipur, Assam, Arunachal 
Pradesh and Burma.  U.S. missionaries' conversion of the Nagas 
and missionary school education weakened the exclusive clan 
allegiance of the sub-tribes and fostered the growth of a 
pan-Naga consciousness.  The GOI's creation of a Nagaland state 
in 1963 failed to contain militancy and the Naga insurgency has 
resulted in 20,000 deaths in Nagaland since India's 
independence. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The Naga National Council (NNC) under Angami Zapu 
Phizo initially led the early revolt against the GOI.  General 
Secretary of the Naga Hoho (the governing tribal body) Neingulo 
 
SIPDIS 
Krome and other Naga contacts told ConGen that Naga insurgents 
received training from China and Pakistan in the 1960s and 
1970s, with some insurgents trekking across Burma to reach 
southwest China.  In 1975 NNC moderates accepted the Indian 
Constitution following the Shillong Accord with New Delhi. 
However, NNC radicals subsequently formed the National Socialist 
Council of Nagalim (NSCN) in 1980 demanding a greater Nagaland 
encompassing all Naga inhabited areas in India's northeast. 
NSCN split in 1988 with one faction under Isak Chisi Swu and 
Thuingaleng Muivah and the other led by S. Khaplang.  The NSCN 
(Isak-Muivah) (NSCN-IM) emerged as the more powerful of the two 
factions.  A cease-fire was initiated between GOI and NSCN-IM in 
1997, but negotiations have not progressed significantly.  In 
April 2000 the NSCN-Khaplang (NSCN-K) declared a cease-fire, but 
no productive talks have resulted. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The larger NSCN-IM operates primarily in Nagaland, 
Assam, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh.  NSCN-K is more limited to 
Burma and parts of Nagaland. The NSCN-IM's objective is to 
establish Greater Nagaland (Nagalim) consisting of all Naga 
inhabited areas in Northeast India.  The outfit has links in 
Burma, Bangladesh, Thailand and the Netherlands.  General 
Secretary Thuingaleng Muivah and Chairman Isak Chisi Swu are 
 
SIPDIS 
negotiating for a peace settlement with GOI, and have virtually 
given up the demand for sovereignty.  During the previous 
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA national government, the 
GOI acknowledged the "unique history" of the Nagas, something 
that Nagas interpreted as a positive direction in the 
negotiations.  But with a Congress government in New Delhi since 
May 2004, the peace negotiations appear to be deadlocked.  While 
the GOI is believed to have unofficially agreed to the 
insurgents' demand for greater autonomy in all departments, 
barring currency, external affairs, communication and defense, 
the NSCN-IM leadership is unwilling to compromise on inclusion 
of Naga inhabited areas in neighboring states of Assam, Manipur 
and Arunachal Pradesh into a greater Nagaland.  New Delhi has 
made it clear that it is not in favor of creating unrest and 
 
KOLKATA 00000382  002 OF 003 
 
 
resentment in other Northeast states simply to appease Nagas. 
 
-------------------------- 
Efforts at Naga Unity 
------------------------- 
 
¶5.   (SBU) During the time of ConGen and PolCouns' visit, Naga 
Hoho representatives and individuals from the insurgent groups 
were attempting to create a consensus among the independence 
factions.  On December 3 some NSCN-IM and NSCN-K members formed 
an NSCN (Unity) faction.  Speaking to ConGen, Naga Hoho General 
Secretary Krome initially dismissed the new unity group as being 
 
SIPDIS 
primarily from the Sumi Naga tribe and not representing a broad 
cross section of the dominant tribes such as the Angami, Ao, 
Lotha and others.   However on December 14, the Naga Hoho issued 
a statement in support of the unity efforts and on December 17, 
the NSCN-IM, NSCN-K and the NNC agreed to a six-month cease fire 
agreement. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The recent unity efforts have reduced the internecine 
factional fighting that had been increasing in the run-up to the 
state assembly elections scheduled for February 2008.  The 
Institute for Conflict Management's provisional data for 2007 
indicates that of the 108 people killed by insurgency violence, 
88 deaths were from intra-factional insurgent fighting.  The 
NSCN-IM is closely linked with CM Rio, his Naga People's Front 
(NPF) and the NDA and the NSCN-K is linked with the state 
Congress Party.  The political parties use the Naga factions to 
support candidates in the constituencies by intimidating voters 
and extorting funds.  The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) 
reported in December that the Naga insurgents operate 
"unhindered in the townships and country-side, enforcing their 
groups' diktats across Nagaland.  Intelligence reports indicate 
that the cadre strength of the NSCN-IM has increased from 800 to 
about 2,500 since the July 1997 cease-fire announcement.  The 
outfit's well-oiled `finance department' engages in wide-spread 
`tax-collection' activities and its `home department' virtually 
runs the State administration.  Its `crime suppression 
department' ensures control of its areas of dominance, 
administering a selective `justice' over various `offences.'" 
In November, Congress party official, former Nagaland Chief 
Minister and present Goa Governor S. C. Jamir alleged he was 
ambushed by the NSCN-IM while visiting Nagaland.  Although 
unhurt in the attack, Jamir claimed that he was targeted by the 
NSCN-IM because of his Congress affiliation.  As Goa Governor, 
Jamir could not officially campaign; however, many contacts 
believed that Jamir was in Nagaland to prepare for the state 
assembly election. 
 
------------------------------- 
State Assembly Elections 
------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) In his conversation with ConGen and PolCouns, CM Rio 
expressed confidence that his NFP-led DAN coalition would retain 
power in the February 2008 state assembly elections.  However, 
his government has seen a number of departures and defections to 
the opposition Congress party.  In November, Minister for Roads 
and Bridges, and Works and Housing Tokheho Yepthomi resigned 
from the DAN council of ministers and two Independent MLAs -- P. 
Chuba Chang and Jongshilemba - withdrew their support to the DAN 
government and also resigned as Parliamentary Secretaries. 
Possibly reflecting Rio's efforts to compensate for his weakened 
position, he has sought to reach out to the NSCN-K faction.  On 
December 2, the CM asked the GOI to pressure the Burmese junta 
to grant autonomous status to the Naga tribes in Burma.  The 
NSCN-K faction's greatest support is among the four Naga tribes 
and 49 clans located between the northern Chindwin and the 
Indo-Burma border.   However, senior state Congress Party leader 
¶I. Imkong was equally confident in his conversation with 
PolCouns that Congress would form a coalition government in the 
next state elections.  Other contacts were split as to the 
possible election results in February.  Many noted that Rio's 
support has diminished and that Congress has an advantage with 
the backing of the Congress-ruling national government, but the 
contacts were not certain that Congress would necessarily win 
enough votes to form a new government. 
 
¶8.   (SBU) Comment:  Recent efforts by Naga insurgents to stop 
factional fighting may will reduce violence prior to the state 
 
KOLKATA 00000382  003 OF 003 
 
 
assembly elections in 2008.  However, the insurgents continue to 
maintain excessive influence in the Nagaland, running shadow 
governments in the areas under their control. What may have 
started as a political movement for Naga independence has 
devolved into something more akin to organized crime supported 
by extortion and intimidation.  The local political parties' 
willingness to align themselves with the insurgents and to use 
them for their political ends means that no effective efforts 
are being taken to reduce the insurgents' grip on Nagaland. 
The GOI sees Nagaland as remote and of limited economic or 
political significance and so is willing to let the lawlessness 
fester, anticipating that the profiteering will corrode the 
desire for Naga independence.  End Comment. 
 
¶9.  (U) Reftel reports on HIV/AIDS in Nagaland.  This message 
was coordinated with AmEmbassy New Delhi. 
JARDINE