VZCZCXYZ0022
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKG #1739/01 3381509
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 041509Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5683
RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY

UNCLAS KINGSTON 001739 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS, SENSITIVE 
 
WHA/CAR FOR JOE TILGHMAN 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: OVIP PREL PGOV ETRD ECON ASEC JM
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: SCENE SETTER FOR ADMIRAL STAVRIDIS VISIT 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.(SBU)  Post welcomes the visit of Admiral James Stavridis to 
Jamaica.  The country has enjoyed a strong democratic tradition 
since independence from Britain in 1962.  In national elections on 
September 10, 2007, Prime Minister Bruce Golding's Jamaica Labour 
Party (JLP) won the closest contest seen in decades, by a razor-thin 
32-28 margin.  The United States is Jamaica's primary trading 
partner, and tourism, bauxite/alumina, and remittances account for 
much of the country's foreign exchange earnings.  Jamaica faces 
challenges to its resource-strapped educational sector, crumbling 
infrastructure, environmental degradation, the spread of HIV/AIDS, 
and high crime. 
End Summary. 
 
Introduction 
------------ 
 
2.(SBU)  Jamaica gained independence from Great Britain in 1962, and 
remains a member of the Commonwealth.  The country is a volcanic and 
coral limestone Caribbean island about the size of Connecticut and 
located 550 miles from Miami.  It has a population of 2.7 million 
and a GDP of approximately USD 9.127 billion. 
 
3.(SBU)  With its British political and cultural heritage, a 
relatively educated and entrepreneurial population, and uncommon 
natural beauty, Jamaica nevertheless has weaknesses in key 
institutions, a bloated bureaucracy, financial resource constraints, 
and lackluster economic growth.  A high crime rate results in 
considerable security costs that must be borne in doing business, 
particularly in Kingston. 
 
4.(SBU)  Despite considerable historical ties to Britain, Jamaica 
increasingly looks to the United States - U.S. influences 
predominate in trade, popular culture, and immigration patterns.  An 
estimated one million or more Jamaicans live in the United States, 
with over 400,000 in South Florida.  Virtually every Jamaican has a 
family member in New York, Connecticut, New Jersey or Florida. 
 
5.(SBU)  United States interests in Jamaica largely relate to 
security, as broadly defined, combating the flow of illegal drugs, 
strengthening democratic institutions, fostering sustainable 
economic development, and protecting the environment.  Serving the 
hundreds of thousands of U.S. visitors to the island is a primary 
U.S. Embassy concern.  Resources also are directed to encourage U.S. 
exports and supporting U.S. investors and businesses.  The 
Government of Jamaica (GOJ) is fully cooperative in 
counter-terrorism efforts, but has not supported the U.S.-led 
coalition action in Iraq. 
 
Political Landscape 
------------------- 
 
6.(SBU)  Jamaica has a "Westminster model" parliament consisting of 
a lower house, the House of Representatives, comprised of 60 
directly elected members, and an upper house, a Senate made up of 21 
appointees.  Power rests largely in the hands of the head of 
government, the Prime Minister.  He and his cabinet (Ministers drawn 
from Members of Parliament and the Senate) decide government policy. 
 The British monarch, represented locally by an appointed Governor 
General, is the largely ceremonial head of state.  The two major 
political parties have historical links with two large trade 
unions--the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) with the Bustamante 
Industrial Trade Union (BITU) and the People's National Party (PNP) 
with the National Workers Union (NWU). The center-right National 
Democratic Movement (NDM) was established in 1995 and the populist 
United Peoples Party (UPP) in 2001; neither has links with any 
particular trade union and both are marginal movements.  Prior to 
the recent national elections, the composition of the lower house of 
Jamaica's Parliament was 34 PNP and 26 JLP. 
 
7.(SBU)  For health reasons, Michael Manley stepped down as Prime 
Minister in March 1992 and was replaced by P.J. Patterson. Patterson 
subsequently led the PNP to victory in general elections in 1993, 
1997, and in October of 2002.  The 2002 victory marked the first 
time any Jamaican political party has won four consecutive general 
elections since the introduction of universal suffrage to Jamaica in 
¶1944.  Upon Patterson's retirement on March 30, 2006, Portia Simpson 
Miller became the first female Prime Minister in Jamaica's history. 
In February, 2006, the JLP elected former Senator Bruce Golding to 
the party leadership, replacing former Prime Minister Edward Seaga, 
who stepped down after 30 years as JLP leader. 
 
8.(SBU)  The National elections held on September 10, 2007 were the 
closest Jamaica has ever seen; in more than ten of the country's 60 
parliamentary constituencies, the race was won by less than 100 
votes.  While the election was declared "free and fair" by observers 
from the Organization of American States (OAS), it was not without a 
few glitches, and was marred by incidents of violence among 
politically-affiliated groups. Some polling stations experienced 
long lines leading some voters to give up without casting their 
ballots; also there were scattered reports of people who found their 
names were not on the voter list. 
 
9.(SBU)  While the new parliament has been sworn in, the PNP has 
filed election petitions challenging the results in four districts. 
The PNP alleges that four JLP Members of Parliament (MPs) hold dual 
citizenship and are therefore in violation of the clause in the 
Jamaican Constitution which prohibits the nomination of a candidate 
who has sworn allegiance to a foreign power.  These cases are 
scheduled to be heard by the courts, starting in early December; 
however one of the four may be thrown out altogether because of an 
improperly served subpoena. 
 
10.(SBU)  While the new JLP government has yet to put its stamp on 
foreign policy, beyond articulating a generally more 
pro-U.S.-orientation, Jamaica traditionally has sought to leverage 
its small-nation influence through multilateralism via CARICOM, the 
G77, and the Non-Aligned Movement.  The country maintains cordial 
relations with Cuba. Jamaica sees itself as a spokesman for smaller 
economies, particularly island states, and pushes for special and 
differential treatment for small economies in the FTAA and the WTO. 
As the most populous English-speaking CARICOM member (only Haiti is 
larger), Jamaica also views itself as a CARICOM leader, though 
Trinidad and Tobago's growing economic power has eroded Jamaica's 
influence within CARICOM.  Nonetheless, this relatively small 
country wields significant international influence and prestige, and 
enjoys a status beyond its size in many international fora. 
 
Economic Situation 
------------------ 
 
11.(SBU) Jamaica's gross domestic product (GDP) is valued at USD 
9.23 billion (2006 estimate) and the economy is considered to be in 
the lower-middle income status.  It relies heavily on the services 
sector, which accounts for about 60 percent of GDP. The largest 
foreign exchange earner is tourism at USD 1.9 billion.  Tourism 
numbers for 2006 reached 3 million visitors, an increase from 2 
million in 1999.  The country benefited from USD 850 million in 
direct foreign investment in 2006, including several major 
investments in the tourism sector by Spanish firms.  Other major 
foreign exchange earners are mining (bauxite/alumina) and 
remittances from abroad, which totaled nearly USD 1.7 billion in 
¶2006.  The discovery of bauxite in the 1940s and the subsequent 
establishment of the bauxite-alumina industry shifted Jamaica's 
economy from sugar and bananas. By the 1970s, Jamaica had emerged as 
a world leader in export of these minerals as foreign investment 
increased. 
 
¶12. (SBU) The country benefits from ample water supplies and a 
climate conducive to agriculture and tourism.  Jamaica has been able 
to develop niche markets in value added agri-business such as Blue 
Mountain coffee and high quality rums.  However, periodic hurricanes 
have damaged tourism revenue as well as agriculture outputs. 
Although Jamaica recovered from the devastation of Hurricane Ivan in 
2004, it suffered close to USD 300 million in damages, mostly to 
crops and infrastructure, when Hurricane Dean hit the island in 
¶2007. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Overall, the economy faces several long-term challenges 
which have caused years of anemic economic growth of between 1 and 
2.5 percent. Large-scale unemployment, serious crime problems, 
including gang violence related to the drug trade, lack of available 
credit and an extremely a high debt burden hinder growth and erode 
investor confidence.  The government debt is 133 percent of GDP, 
making Jamaica the fourth most indebted country in the world. 
Almost 55 cents on every dollar earned by the GOJ goes to debt 
servicing, which limits the GOJ's ability to invest in 
infrastructure improvement or pay for public services such as 
police, education and health care.  Low tax compliance rates, which 
hover at about 45 percent, exacerbate the problem of limited 
revenue. 
 
¶14. (SBU) The spiraling cost of living is undermining social and 
economic stability in Jamaica.  Inflation soared to 8.9 percent for 
the first nine months of 2007 and shows no signs of abating.  Prices 
for the nine month period are well ahead of the upper target of 
seven percent for the year.  There appears to be a confluence of 
factors underlying the upward movement in prices.  These range from 
skyrocketing international oil prices to rebuilding after Hurricane 
Dean.  The Jamaican dollar is also declining against the weakening 
U.S. dollar, exacerbating problems for this import-dependent 
country.  The current exchange rate is JD 71 to the USD 1.  Prices 
are climbing across the board from food to transportation and 
education to housing.  The spike in prices appears to have coincided 
with the change of administration and can only add to the myriad of 
existing challenges.  Escalating inflation may only get worse, as 
workers demand commensurate salary adjustments to nullify price 
increases.  Apart from fueling further inflation and possibly 
causing social instability, there also will be repercussions for 
macroeconomic stability and investor confidence. 
E 
 
 
¶15. (SBU) The victory of the Jamaican Labor Party (JLP) in September 
2007 has ushered in a more pro-business climate.  Prime Minister 
Golding welcomes direct foreign investment and maintains that 
Jamaica will only resolve its debt problems if it can begin to grow 
the economy.  He has called for cutting corporate tax rates and 
reducing bureaucratic red tape that hinders investment.  Overall, 
GOJ economic policies encourage foreign investment in areas that 
earn or save foreign exchange, generate employment, and use local 
raw materials.  The government provides a wide range of incentives 
to investors, including remittance facilities to assist them in 
repatriating funds to the country of origin; tax holidays which 
defer taxes for a period of years; and duty-free access for 
machinery and raw materials imported for approved enterprises. 
 
¶16. (SBU) The United States is Jamaica's primary trading partner. In 
2005 the U.S. purchased 25 percent of the country's total exports of 
1.5 billion, while total exports from the United States to Jamaica 
were about USD 1.9 billion, representing 41 percent of Jamaica's 
total imports.  Some of the major import categories include 
petroleum, grains, machinery and transport equipment.  The United 
States has been Jamaica's principal export market over the last two 
decades.  Jamaica exports mostly bauxite/alumina, chemicals, and 
food to the United States.  Tourism, bauxite/alumina, and 
remittances account for most of the country's foreign exchange 
earnings.  Uncompetitive traditional agricultural exports - bananas 
and sugar - face the impending end of preferential regimes.  The 
once flourishing apparel industry also virtually has collapsed. 
 
Environment 
----------- 
 
¶17. (SBU) Jamaica's economy is heavily dependent on the island's 
fragile natural resources given that tourism, bauxite and alumina 
production, and agriculture provide the bulk of foreign exchange 
earnings.  Large-scale hotel and resort developments under 
construction along the north coast will severely strain the island's 
natural resources and infrastructure.  Environmental degradation and 
resource depletion are serious threats to sustainable economic 
growth in Jamaica.  The most pressing environmental challenges 
affecting the island are coastal water quality (some estimate 80 
percent of coral reefs have perished), deforestation and lack of 
biodiversity protection. Jamaica needs to develop a long-term 
environmental protection scheme that works with the private sector. 
 
Transnational Crime and Narcotics 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶18. (SBU)  Jamaica is a transit point for South American cocaine en 
route to the United States and also the largest Caribbean producer 
and exporter of cannabis.  The Government of Jamaica (GOJ) has a 
National Drug Control Strategy in place that covers both supply and 
demand reduction.  2007 has seen one of the highest murder rates in 
the history of Jamaica; over 1400 people have been murdered and to 
date 20 police officers have lost their lives. 
 
¶19. (SBU)  The GOJ has taken steps to protect itself against drug 
trafficking and other organized crime, and has made significant 
strides toward intensifying and focusing its law enforcement efforts 
toward more effectively disrupting the trafficking of large amounts 
of cocaine in Jamaica and throughout its territorial waters.  The 
GOJ has further embraced and enhanced efforts to improve its 
position on international cooperation by fully cooperating in 
several major international narcotics law enforcement initiatives, 
which have resulted in the arrest of high-profile Jamaican, 
Colombian, Bahamian, and Panamanian narcotics traffickers 
responsible for the manufacture, trans-shipment, and distribution of 
vast amounts of cocaine throughout the Central Caribbean region. 
However, along with other personnel changes in the GOJ, the Ministry 
of National Security is now led by Derrick Smith, and the government 
announced on December 1, 2007 that recently-retired Chief of Staff 
from the JDF, Rear Admiral Hardley Lewin will take over as the 
Commissioner of the Jamaican Constabulary Force (JCF). 
 
20.(SBU)  The Port Authority of Jamaica (PAJ)has procured and 
installed non-intrusive inspection equipment, including mobile gamma 
imaging machines, x-ray machines for high-density cargo, and pallet 
machine and closed-circuit television surveillance systems for the 
Kingston and Montego Bay ports.  While the Container Terminal 
managed by APM is relatively well protected, and is now a 
beneficiary of the U.S. Container Security Initiative, its neighbor 
Kingston Wharf, a break bulk facility, is plagued with security 
problems that facilitate contraband smuggling.  The JCF Narcotics 
Vetted Unit has taken steps to increase its evidential intelligence 
gathering capabilities in investigating major narcotics and crimes 
figures.  In addition, the GOJ has agreed to the establishment of an 
International Airport Interdiction Task Force comprised of Jamaican, 
US, UK, and Canadian law enforcement elements which will focus on 
narcotics trafficking and illegal migration at the country's two 
major international airports. 
 
Travel and Migration 
-------------------- 
 
21.(SBU)  Facilitating legal migration and deterring illegal 
movement are key missions for Embassy Kingston.  Despite its small 
size, Jamaica is a major source of legal and illegal immigrants to 
the United States.  Embassy Kingston is one of the busiest consular 
posts in the Western Hemisphere:  the consular section issues 11,000 
immigrant visas, and receives over 100,000 applications for 
non-immigrant visas per year.  Travel is not one-way.  Well over one 
million Americans visit Jamaica each year, most as tourists.  About 
ten thousand U.S. citizens are permanent residents on the island. 
 
Education 
--------- 
 
22.(SBU)  In the 1960s and 70s, Jamaican secondary education was 
considered on par with the UK.  The quality of schools has eroded 
over the last three decades because of the limited resources 
available to maintain high quality education (teaching, school 
administration and infrastructure maintenance) and the "brain drain" 
associated with the migration of skilled workers - for example 
teachers and nurses - to the U.S., UK and Canada.  University 
education is still world-class, but under tremendous pressure to 
successfully address the tertiary-level skills required to keep 
Jamaica competitive in the global economy.  The University of the 
West Indies' campus at Mona on the outskirts of Kingston is well 
regarded and home to the Joint Board for Teacher Education, 
implementer of President Bush's Center for Excellence in Teacher 
Training. 
 
HIV/AIDS 
-------- 
 
23.(SBU)  The Caribbean region's seroprevalence rate of 
approximately 2.4 percent is second only to sub-Saharan Africa.  In 
Jamaica, about 3 percent of antenatal clinic attendees test positive 
for HIV, according to GOJ statistics, and 1.5 percent of the general 
population.  Early sexual initiation and multiple partners among 
adolescents and the stigma of homosexuality in Jamaican culture 
contribute to the potential risks for an accelerating epidemic in 
the Jamaican population, as well as high levels of discrimination 
against those living with HIV/AIDS, regardless of whether they are 
men, women or children.  Even if the disease is successfully 
contained, HIV will continue to have serious economic consequences. 
 According to the University of the West Indies, Health Economics 
Unit, should the escalation continue at its present rate, it is 
estimated that the economic cost in five years will equal 6.5 
percent of GDP. 
 
The Jamaican Defence Force 
----------------------------- 
 
¶24. (SBU)  The mission of the Jamaica Defence Force (JDF) is "to 
provide military capability to deter and/or defeat threats against 
the Jamaican state and/or its interest."  On October 28, 2007 Major 
General Stewart Saunders took over the role of Chief of Staff for 
the JDF, replacing Rear Admiral Hardley Lewin. 
 
¶25. (SBU) The JDF devotes considerable resources to the internal 
security mission in Jamaica and conducts operations with/in support 
of the Jamaica Constabulary Force.  One such ongoing operation is 
"Operation Kingfish," which targets high level criminals in Jamaica. 
 Other important missions are Counter-Drug (marijuana eradication 
and maritime interdiction) and humanitarian assistance in time of 
natural disaster (primarily hurricanes and flooding).  The JDF 
participated with units in Grenada 1983 and Haiti 1994.  The JDF is 
a well trained and professional force that is respected throughout 
Jamaica and the Caribbean.  Its principal training partners are the 
United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. 
 
¶26. (SBU)  The JDF is made up of approximately 3000 personnel and 
consists of the following units: JDF HQ, 1 Jamaica Regiment (1JR), 2 
Jamaica Regiment (2JR), 3 Jamaica Regiment (3JR - Reserve unit), JDF 
Air Wing, JDF Coast Guard, Engineer Regiment, Service and Support 
BN, and the Military Intelligence Unit (MIU). 
 
¶27. (SBU)  The JDF Air Wing currently has eleven trained pilots 
which have to do the majority of air missions for the entire island 
- such as medevac/casevac, SAR, humanitarian assistance, DV 
transport, and counter-drug operations support.  They have four new 
Bell 407 helos, two DA40 Diamond fix wing, and one fixed wing 
Beachmaster.  They also have three old Bell 412's which they are in 
the process of selling.  No longer having the capability to train 
its pilots in Canada or the UK, the JDF AW opened the Jamaican 
Military Aviation School (JMAS) in July 2007 with the hope that the 
school will become a regional school for the Caribbean.  It 
currently has one instructor and one student from Belize.  JMAS does 
not currently have helicopters for training and is limited to fixed 
wing instruction until new helicopters can be purchased. 
 
¶28. (SBU)  The JDF Coast Guard consists of approximately 300 
personnel.  Its HQ is located at HMJS Cagway in Port Royal.  It has 
several small outposts located in Port Antonio and Discovery Bay on 
the north coast, in Black River on the SW coast, and in Pedro Cayes. 
 Their main assets include three new OSV's which they received from 
Damen Corp in the Netherlands.  Its primary missions are maritime 
safety, CD, and prevention of illegal fishing and illegal 
migration. 
 
¶29. (SBU)  The Jamaica Defence Force continued to have a strong 
training year in 2007.  It had the 6th largest IMET program in the 
region, totaling $805K.  Within this program, the JDF shifted the 
majority of its officer commissioning to the U.S. - graduating 12 
from OCS since late 2006; Field Grade officers were sent to both the 
US Army and the USMC Command & Staff Colleges; and a USCG MTT 
conducted a 2-week Waterside Port Security Course on island.  The 
JDF also received $12K in CTFP-funded seminars and MTT's and was 
host to the HSV-2 SWIFT which trained 170 personnel in various MTT 
courses.  Jamaica is currently budgeted to receive in 2008 $750K in 
IMET, $100K in CD, and $12K in CTFP training. 
 
HEG