VZCZCXRO2361
PP RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #2072/01 3651401
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 311401Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9638
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 002072 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE WILLIAMSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: RIEK MACHAR CLAIMS PDF IS BEHIND MISSERIYA ATTACKS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Khartoum is trying to destabilize the Abyei region 
by organizing the Misseriya Arab Popular Defense Forces (PDF) to 
attack SPLA positions, claimed Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) 
Vice President Riek Machar.  Machar claimed the Misseriya forces 
have been using vehicles with 12.7 mm gun mounts.  Regarding the 
Darfur talks, Machar reported that the GoSS is pushing all Darfur 
rebels who remain in Juba to leave this week.  Machar urged the USG 
to provide "food for peace" to rebel leader Minawi in order to 
motivate other rebels to sign the next agreement, and avoid further 
defections from Minawi's ranks.  Regarding SPLM politics, Machar 
said reports that Abdel-Aziz el Helou could replace Pagan Amum as 
Secretary General of the SPLM are just rumors.  On LRA negotiations, 
 
SIPDIS 
Machar said that LRA representatives had confirmed to him that Otti 
is dead. End Summary. 
 
PDF-SPLA Clashes 
---------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) During a courtesy call December 29, Government of Southern 
Sudan Vice President Riek Machar told visiting polchief that 
Khartoum is trying to destabilize the Abyei region in order to 
further militarize the area and avoid a political settlement 
regarding the borders of the oil region.  Machar claimed that during 
three days of attacks, Misseriya Popular Defense Forces (PDF) 
mobilized by Khartoum had used vehicles with 12.7 mm gun mounts to 
attack SPLA positions.  Due to the absence of GoSS President Salva 
Kiir, Machar had just finished chairing a three-hour security 
meeting to plan the SPLA response to the attacks.  Machar said the 
SPLA would not initiate attacks but would certainly defend itself. 
He echoed statements made in the press by President Kiir, that the 
SPLA would do everything possible to facilitate the movement of 
Misseriya herders.  "These attacks have nothing to do with the 
Misseriya herders," observed Machar.  "Herders do not guard their 
cattle with vehicles and heavy weapons."  Machar said the SPLA had 
maintained positions north of the Bahr al Arab but had moved south 
of those positions over the last two days. 
 
Darfur Rebel Talks and Arab Unification 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Waiting in the ante-room to see Machar were about a dozen 
Darfur rebels.  Machar said he was disappointed that the Darfur Task 
Force had not achieved greater results.  "Our attempts were not 
fully successful, they gave us the impression they would unite with 
other groups in the field but this did not happen."  Machar said the 
exercise had cost the SPLM over a million USD and the GoSS would 
encourage the seventy rebels who remain in Juba to return to Darfur 
by the end of the week.  He said the GoSS has no plans at this point 
to facilitate further talks amongst the Darfur rebel groups. 
Regarding the Darfurian Arabs who claim to have turned against 
Khartoum, Machar said he had just heard from his contacts in Darfur 
that several Arab rebel groups had united under the leadership of 
southern Rizeigat leader Hamati, under the banner of the United 
Front for Revolutionary Forces (UFRF).  He said Abu Surra is the 
Secretary General of this group.  Machar said he did not know how 
 
SIPDIS 
this would affect Hamati's alliance with Fur SLM leader Abdel Wahid 
al Nur.  Machar observed that JEM and SLA/Unity are the most 
powerful forces on the ground right now in Darfur, but said this 
could change rapidly if SLA/Unity breaks apart.  Machar said he had 
heard that Abdallah Yahyia had definitively broken away from the 
SLA/Unity leadership.  Machar said the SPLM would consider 
supporting Darfur rebels militarily if they were united, "but they 
are not." 
 
Do Something for Minawi 
----------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Machar urged the U.S. to "do something" for the rebels who 
have signed the Darfur Peace Agreement.  "You are not assisting the 
groups you pushed to sign an agreement in Abuja - you have abandoned 
them," Machar observed.  Machar predicted that there will be a 
chaotic situation in Darfur if all of Minawi's fighters abandon him, 
or if Minawi himself decides to abandon the DPA based on lack of 
implementation by the GNU and lack of support from the U.S.  Machar 
urged the U.S. to again provide "food for peace" to Darfur 
signatories as it did last year, via the SPLM/GoSS.  Machar said 
this would help stabilize Darfur in the year leading to elections, 
and would be a motivating sign to non-signatories that the 
international community will not abandon them if they sign an 
agreement with the GNU at the next round of talks.  Machar predicted 
that there will be no peace in Darfur for another year if Minawi " 
goes back to Darfur."  He said lack of progress in the Darfur peace 
process leading to the 2009 election would undermine the democratic 
transformation of Sudan and could contribute to the South seceding 
in 2011. 
 
 
KHARTOUM 00002072  002 OF 002 
 
 
SPLM Leadership 
--------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The SPLM will have a greater impact in Khartoum with the 
Ministers who have just been sworn in, said Machar.  The focus of 
the SPLM over the next year will be unity and democratic 
transformation in Sudan, but the SPLM is not yet ready to commit to 
a partnership with the National Congress Party (NCP) in the 2009 
elections.  He predicted that the two parties would run on separate 
tickets in the elections but with an agreement to continue their 
partnership.  Although Pagan Amum's presence in the GNU as Minister 
of Cabinet will increase the chances of unity, Machar observed that 
there are many members of the SPLM who are pro-unity, but said this 
could change if the SPLM does not increase its seats in parliament 
beyond 28% following the elections.  Machar said the plan discussed 
in the SPLM politburo is that Pagan Amum will continue as Secretary 
General of the SPLM even while serving as GNU Minister of Cabinet, 
and denied reports that Abdel-Aziz al Helou would take over as 
Secretary General of the party.  "These are rumors that are being 
 
SIPDIS 
spread by Khartoum," claimed Machar. 
 
LRA Issues 
---------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Machar said he had recently met with LRA representatives on 
December 20 and again on Christmas eve but that he had not met with 
Kony.  He said the representatives confirmed that Otti is dead. 
Machar said what is needed now is for Kony to confirm to the world 
that he is still for the peace process, and to return to 
negotiations so they may be concluded by February. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Machar was more focused on security issues than SPLM party 
politics, but did not seem overly concerned about the Misseriya-SPLA 
clashes along the border.  He was clearly disappointed that his own 
efforts to unite Darfur groups did not achieve a greater result, and 
seemed tired of dealing with the portfolio and eager to delay his 
meeting with the remaining rebel representatives waiting outside his 
door.  Machar was most animated when urging additional "food for 
peace" for DPA signatories, delivered via the south, as he clearly 
hopes to play a personal role in such a delivery if it occurs. 
 
POWERS