VZCZCXRO5850
OO RUEHIK RUEHPW RUEHYG
DE RUEHBUL #4006/01 3410411
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 070411Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1654
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 004006 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/FO DAS GASTRIGHT, SCA/A, PRM 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG 
NSC FOR JWOOD 
OSD FOR SHIVERS 
CG CJTF-82, POLAD, JICCENT 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREF PREL PHUM AF
SUBJECT:  2007 AFGHAN REFUGEE RETURNS AND LIKELY 2008 REPATRIATION 
AND DEPORTATION TRENDS 
 
REF: A. Kabul 03386 
 ¶B. Kabul 03856 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Iran's deportations of undocumented Afghans in 
the spring of 2007 and Pakistan's push to repatriate its Afghan 
population by the end of 2009 have resulted in increased returns 
that put a squeeze on the fragile support system in place in 
Afghanistan.  So far this year, UNHCR has assisted 354,078 Afghan 
returnees, compared to 139,804 in 2006.  UNHCR has closed the 2007 
repatriation operations for this season on the Pakistan border and 
does not anticipate (but is prepared for) another mass deportation 
event from Iran before spring.  But with an extremely limited 
capacity to absorb another wave of desperately poor, unskilled, and 
landless refugees, Afghanistan faces enormous challenges in 
successfully reintegrating and supporting this returnee population. 
End Summary. 
 
Who Is Returning (Or Not) And Where They Go 
------------------------------------------- 
¶2.  (U) The world's largest refugee population for two decades, 
approximately six million Afghans fled to more than 70 countries, 
with the vast majority in Pakistan and Iran.  UNHCR assisted 3.5 
million of these refugees to return home in 2002-2005 and another 
million returned "spontaneously" i.e., without assistance.  This 
flow slowed markedly in 2006 with only an additional 139,804 
assisted and 248,065 spontaneous returns.  The trend continued in 
the first months of 2007, with the humanitarian community accepting 
that most of those who remained abroad would resettle permanently in 
their countries of refuge.  Over 50% of Afghans abroad were born in 
exile, and the majority of Afghans in Iran and Pakistan have lived 
there for over twenty years.  Returning is now increasingly 
difficult for them.  Of those who have returned, the majority were 
Pashtun (56%), Tajik (25%), and Hazara (8%), with a fairly even 
male/female ratio.  Returnees are largely illiterate; 63% with no 
education at all and few job skills.  Most of the uneducated 
returnees end up in the Eastern provinces, followed by Kunduz, 
Baghlan, Herat, and Kandahar. 
 
Long-Term Afghan Refugees in Pakistan Hesitant to Leave 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
¶3. (SBU) Pakistan had welcomed Afghan refugees when they first 
arrived in 1979, but that welcome cooled as Afghans were perceived 
as "taking over" the transport and construction sectors and blamed 
for Pakistan's security problem in Northwest Frontier Province, 
where most camps are located.  The Afghan/Pak/UNHCR Tripartite 
Agreement, which was extended for three years in August 2007, sets 
forth the principle of "voluntary, gradual, and dignified" return. 
The Tripartite Agreement does call for the eventual closure of 
Pakistan's refugee camps, home to 42% of the Afghan refugee 
population. 
 
¶4. (SBU) In 2006, Pakistan registered 2.5 million Afghans, giving 
them a Proof of Registration (POR) card valid only through 2009.  In 
August 2007, Pakistan tried to close the 75,000-person Jalozai camp, 
but UNHCR and AmEmbassies Kabul and Islamabad vigorously opposed 
closure so late into the repatriation season.  Pakistan backed down, 
but Jalozai elders have promised to vacate the camp in March 2008. 
Pakistani officials privately acknowledge that many Afghans have no 
intention of voluntarily leaving their long-term home in Pakistan. 
They are expected to simply fade into Pakistan's economy. 
 
The Pakistani "Push" Is Increasing 
---------------------------------- 
¶5. (SBU) Pakistan is stepping up forced returns, with immigration 
police arresting and deporting up to 500 undocumented Afghans at a 
time.  An EC monitoring report states that one of the major 
motivators for current returns to Afghanistan is the fear of arrest 
and detention in Pakistan, particularly for non-POR holders.  While 
Pakistan's repatriation strategy envisions 800,000 Afghans per year 
departing "voluntarily" from 2007 to 2009, GoP refugee officials say 
they will consult with the Afghan government before deporting large 
numbers of undocumented Afghans.  The GoP stressed that it does not 
want to "add to [Afghanistan's problems] through a mass deportation 
from Pakistan," but many returnees continue to claim they were 
forced out by Pakistani police, even though they had nowhere to go 
in Afghanistan. 
 
 
KABUL 00004006  002 OF 003 
 
 
Afghans in Iran Forced Home After Years of Integration 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
¶6. (SBU) In contrast to Pakistan's more consultative approach, Iran 
moved unilaterally to increase the tempo of deportations of 
undocumented Afghans from the border areas. (Ref A)  The one million 
registered Afghan refugees (and 0.9 unregistered migrants) are 
well-integrated in Iran and generally tolerated.  But Iran has 
deported 687,353 Afghans from 2002 to 2007, and deportations surged 
in Spring 2007 with 269,500 individuals, resulting in a humanitarian 
crisis and the Afghan Minister of Refugees and Repatriation losing 
his job. In October and November, Iran began implementing a "No Go 
Areas" policy in Sistaan-Baluchestan and four cities in Iran's 
northern Golestan, with the policy intended to eventually cover 19 
districts throughout Iran.  As of late November, Iran has deported 
325,000 Afghans during 2007.  Deportees were mostly single men 
working illegally in Iran, but some legitimate refugee families were 
also arrested and deported, often in the middle of the night without 
time to collect their belongings or notify absent family members. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Deportations continue, though the Iranians are currently 
deporting less than 7,000 individuals a week, with no signs of a 
major increase during winter.  UNHCR has developed a contingency 
plan in the event of a mass deportation crisis, especially since 
their information shows most returnees are from Afghanistan's more 
unstable western and southwestern provinces and may choose to camp 
out in Herat or Farah rather than return to these areas.  Iranian 
registration data indicates most Afghans in Iran come from 
Afghanistan's relatively safe Northern and Central provinces, but 
many believe Iran manipulates the registration data to deflect 
international criticism of their forced deportations into unstable 
provinces.  UNHCR is attempting to obtain more information from 
border interviews to determine to which province most people return 
and how vulnerable they are. 
 
Lack of Sustainable Repatriation Contributes to Reverse Migration 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
¶8. (SBU) The new buzzwords of "reverse migration" and "sustainable 
repatriation" reflect the increasing trend of Afghans returning to 
Pakistan and to Iran after unsuccessful attempts to resettle in 
Afghanistan.  The trend reflects the lack of "pull" factors to 
attract voluntary returns and hold returnees in Afghanistan. 
Problems with the environment and refugee system impact the 
sustainability of returns.  A snapshot of UNHCR border monitoring 
shows that 77% of reverse migration back into Pakistan is due to 
lack of livelihood opportunities in Afghanistan, mostly for day 
laborers.  Most of these refugees had repatriated in 2007 with the 
one-time, increased ($100 USD) cash assistance UNHCR provided, but 
it was not enough to ensure sustainable repatriation and 
reintegration.  To stem the reverse migration, most refugee policy 
officials want donors to increase refugee assistance in Afghanistan 
to entice people to stay rather than provide more assistance in 
Pakistan and keep them there. 
 
The New Minister of Refugees and Repatriation 
--------------------------------------------- 
¶9. (SBU) New Minister of Refugees and Repatriation (MORR) Sheer 
Mohammad Etebari has been on the job for a week and is struggling 
with the magnitude of the job before him. 
(Ref B)  UNHCR is working closely with the minister to craft an 
action plan for MORR reform, and all the western delegations, 
including Post, are meeting with him unilaterally to reinforce the 
reform message.  So far, Etebari has shown a willingness to listen 
and learn, which is already significant improvement over his 
predecessor. 
 
Looking Ahead at 2008 Returns 
----------------------------- 
¶10. (SBU) Notwithstanding some recent noises from Pakistan that it 
wants to close camps near the Swat Valley to stem the violence there 
- another instance of blaming Afghan refugees for Pakistan's 
security problems - UNHCR and MORR do not anticipate any major 
refugee movements from Pakistan until Spring 2008.  From Iran, we 
expect deportations to pick up in February and March, the end of 
Iran's calendar year.  The problem is that Afghanistan's harsh 
winter can turn even a manageable number into a bedraggled and 
starving humanitarian crisis.  The Refugee Sections in both 
Islamabad and Kabul are working with UNHCR and host government 
 
KABUL 00004006  003 OF 003 
 
 
officials to devise a plan for the spring influx.  Without strong 
assistance and reintegration programs in Afghanistan, however, more 
reverse migration may occur as refugees decide that life abroad is 
easier, more lucrative, and relatively easy to achieve. 
 
DELL