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RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE PRIORITY 4367
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 2991
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 005305 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN ELECTIONS: PREPARATION AND MONITORING 
 
REF: ISLAMABAD 5160 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary.  December 15 was the last day for 
candidates to withdraw or change political parties in the 
run-up to Pakistan's January 8 parliamentary elections.  All 
the major parties will contest the election and are now 
heavily engaged in campaigning.  USG- and international 
donor-sponsored election preparation programs are winding 
down and observer/monitoring missions are moving into place. 
The U.S. Mission will field 31 observer teams and is 
coordinating with the UK, Canada and (hopefully) Japan to 
expand our reach.  We plan to include our expected 
congressional delegations into our observer teams.  Post is 
forwarding party allegations of vote rigging to the 
professionals in the IRI monitoring team.  We do not expect a 
clear winner on election day; it could take weeks for the 
parties to form a coalition government and choose a new prime 
minister.  This will mean an extended period of protracted 
uncertainty.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  This is one of a series of upcoming reports on the 
January 8 National Assembly and Provincial Assembly elections 
in Pakistan.  We will be providing in the next few weeks 
primers on the major political parties, profile bios of 
potential prime ministers, and continuing analyses of what is 
expected to be a close race among the major political 
parties.  At this point, it appears no single party will be 
able to form the next government in Pakistan.  The game will 
be coalition building among rival and often contentious 
parties and leaders.  Because it is unlikely there will be a 
clear winner, it could take weeks after the election for the 
parties to form a government and choose a new prime minister. 
 This will mean an extended period of protracted uncertainty. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  December 15 was the last day that candidates could 
withdraw or switch parties, so the final analysis of 
prospects for electoral districts is underway by all the 
political parties.  Overall, the Election Commission has 
approved 7,335 candidates for national and provincial 
assembly seats.  Only a handful of the smaller parties, 
including Qazi Hussain's Jamaat-e-Islami and Imran Khan's 
Pakistan Tehreek Insaaf decided in the end to boycott.  The 
big three -- Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party, 
Pervaiz Elahi's Pakistan Muslim League, and Nawaz Sharif's 
Pakistan Muslim League-N -- as well as Altaf Hussain's 
Muttahida Quami Movement and Fazlur Rehman's Jamiat 
Ulema-e-Islam, are all now campaigning in earnest.  There 
will be a lull for the Eid holiday (December 20-22) and 
Mohammad Ali Jinnah's birthday (December 25); the biggest 
campaign push will take place in the last week before the 
January 8 elections.  According to law, the last day for 
campaigning is January 6. 
 
Election Day Preparation/Planning 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  USG- and international donor-sponsored elections 
preparation programs are winding down.  The Asia Foundation 
is completing its voter education programs.  IFES and a 
USAID-funded contractor are completing work on placing the 
voter list on DVDs for distribution to the parties and on the 
Election Commission's website.  All of the 430,000 
transparent ballot boxes purchased by the USG and Japan have 
been delivered to the Election Commission for dissemination 
across the country.  IRI distributed its latest pre-election 
poll to the political parties last week. The United Nations 
Development Program has already published and distributed 
comprehensive guide books for polling/returning officers and 
continues to train polling officials through December 31. 
NDI is finishing its political parties' poll watcher training. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  IRI is fielding its long-term monitors in seven 
hubs around the country; by election day, IRI will have 65 
monitors on the ground.  IRI will be producing, within 48 
hours after the polls close, an initial assessment of whether 
the elections were credible.  The EC has finally decided to 
go forward with its monitoring team of 50 long-term and 
possibly 30 short-term monitors. The Asia Foundation is in 
the process of accrediting up to 20,000 domestic observers. 
 
 
ISLAMABAD 00005305  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  The U.S. Mission is fielding 31 election observer 
teams throughout the country.  We are coordinating with the 
UK (15 teams), the Canadians (20 teams) and (hopefully) the 
Japanese (6 teams).  We will establish a control center in 
the Embassy to coordinate mission observer teams and provide 
Washington with field updates on how election day activities 
are progressing.  The U.S. Mission is for observation and 
fraud prevention only; we will not/not be issuing any public 
statements on the credibility of the elections. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  As of now, we are expecting three congressional 
delegations and one staff delegation on election day.  We 
plan to include the delegations in our planned election 
observation missions in Islamabad, Peshawar, Lahore/Punjab, 
and (security permitting) Quetta. 
 
Press Coverage 
-------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  The GOP has announced it will establish a media 
election village near the Associated Press of Pakistan 
headquarters in Islambad.  Reportedly this will be a state of 
the art facility where journalists can file stories and 
receive their Election Commission accreditation to cover 
election reporting.  We expect significant numbers of U.S. 
and other international press. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  Although we expect the media gradually to ramp up 
to its pre-State of Emergency criticism of all politicians, 
the code of conduct that has been imposed on the media is 
creating self-censorship by both print and electronic media 
journalists.  Geo TV remains off the air. 
 
Vote Rigging Allegations 
------------------------ 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  Led by the Pakistan People's Party, virtually all 
the opposition parties are publicly complaining about vote 
rigging by the ruling Pakistan Muslim League party. 
Accusations include alleged bribing by the intelligence 
services, illegal transfers of judges who will monitor 
election returns, continued distribution of political spoils 
by district nazims (mayors), and reports of intimidation of 
opposition party workers by police and security services. 
Parties have complained the Election Commission is not 
responding. 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  Post is forwarding reports of alleged abuses to 
the professional monitors in IRI for their assessment and 
inclusion in their election reports. 
 
Restrictions on Campaigning/Voting 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU)  While most detained opposition political party 
workers have been freed, Aitzaz Ahsan and several of the 
deposed Supreme and High Court judges remain under house 
arrest.  The Election Commission's code of conduct for 
parties, coupled with the Ministry of Interior's own 
restrictions on large political gatherings (reftel), has so 
far restricted the ability of parties to hold big rallies. 
On the positive side, there have been no more suicide 
bombings of political rallies since the death of over 140 
Pakistan People's Party workers in Karachi on October 18. 
 
¶13.  (SBU)  It is still unclear the extent to which security 
concerns will prevent elections from taking place in Swat, 
Tank (Northwest Frontier Province) and several agencies 
(North and South Waziristan at the very least) in the 
Federally Administered Tribal Area. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
PATTERSON