VZCZCXRO4238
OO RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHIL #5160/01 3391410
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 051410Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3671
INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 7874
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 2412
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 8312
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE PRIORITY 4276
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 2865
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 3347
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 005160 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PK PREL EAID PHUM
SUBJECT: USG SUPPORT FOR CREDIBLE PAKISTANI ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. ISLAMABAD 5054 
     ¶B. ISLAMABAD 4947 
     ¶C. ISLAMABAD 4832 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: Pakistanis will go to the polls on January 8 
to choose new National and Provincial Assemblies.  It appears 
that none of the three major parties will receive enough 
votes to independently form a government, so political vote 
swapping and coalition building is in full swing.  Pakistan 
has a history of flawed elections, but our goal is to do 
everything possible to make these elections credible.  The 
Mission is implementing a multi-year 
democratization/electoral program with USG and international 
partners, who now meet weekly to coordinate activities. 
International Republican Institute (IRI) election observers 
will begin arriving next week; IRI will field a total of 65 
observers coupled by The Asia Foundation's (TAF) 20,000 
domestic observers.  Ref A describes Embassy's request for 
additional personnel and funding to support our own election 
observation mission.  End summary. 
 
What's at Stake? 
---------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) On January 8, Pakistanis will vote to fill 342 seats 
in the National Assembly and a total of 728 seats in four 
Provincial Assemblies (Ref B).  Despite discussion of a 
possible boycott, it is likely that all the major political 
parties will participate in the elections.  Preliminary 
analysis indicates this could be a tight three-way race among 
the major parties -- Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League 
(PML), Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) 
and Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) -- leaving 
the smaller ethno-nationalist and religious parties holding 
the key to forming a coalition government. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The results of the election and the ensuing 
horse-trading to form a coalition will determine Pakistan's 
government -- the Prime Minister and 38 federal ministers. 
Also, the new National Assembly may be called upon to ratify 
Musharraf's actions under the state of emergency, void 
corruption charges/convictions against former prime minister 
Benazir Bhutto, and remove the two-term limit for prime 
ministers Bhutto and Sharif. 
 
Democracy Programs Long in the Works 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (U) Mission Pakistan has been preparing for the 2008 
general elections through a multi-year, interagency 
democratization/electoral program.  With the overall 
strategic goal of strengthening the democratic process, our 
program has focused on eight goals: (1) computerizing a clean 
voter list, (2) improving election administration, (3) 
reviewing and updating the legal framework for elections, (4) 
encouraging regular interaction between Pakistan's Election 
Commission (ECP) and the political parties, (5) ensuring 
voters are better informed on election issues and procedures, 
(6) supporting independent election observation, (7) 
enhancing the independence of the ECP, and (8) strengthening 
the election dispute resolution process. 
 
¶5. (U) USAID provided $19 million to IFES to computerize the 
2007 voter roll, build capacity within the ECP to manage the 
new computerized voter roll, provide voter education during 
the voter roll display period, and purchase 215,000 
transparent ballot boxes.  (Note: Japan purchased another 
215,000 of these ballot boxes.) 
 
¶6. (U) Starting in 2004, USAID also spent $1.7 million, 
through the National Democratic Institute (NDI), to modernize 
and democratize Pakistan's political parties, improve their 
internal governance structures and processes, and encourage 
the emergence of a new generation of reform-minded party 
leaders. 
 
¶7. (U) State's DRL provided $1.4 million to NDI to enhance 
the capacity of women politicians and candidates, increase 
opportunities for young political party activists to play a 
more significant role in party activities, facilitate the 
development and adoption of a code of conduct for political 
 
ISLAMABAD 00005160  002 OF 003 
 
 
parties, train the parties' poll watchers, and encourage 
voter awareness and participation in the Federally 
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). 
 
¶8. (U) Embassy's Public Affairs Section sponsored veteran 
journalist Arnold "Skip" Isaacs to conduct training workshops 
in the Peshawar area, throughout Punjab, and in Islamabad and 
Karachi for Pakistani journalists on best professional 
practices when covering elections.  PAS's Information 
Resource Center provided material at the ECP's request for a 
handbook it is compiling for election observers. 
 
Focused on January 8 Elections 
------------------------------ 
 
¶9. (SBU) The remaining components of the USG's 
democratization/electoral program are focused on the January 
8 election day.  These projects are almost exclusively 
intended to stem electoral fraud.  Our stated objective has 
been a free, fair and transparent election -- something which 
no one can claim has ever been achieved in the country's 
history and which, despite the best efforts, is unlikely this 
time. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Election discrepancies can be said to include a 
bloated voter roll because the former Chief Justice of the 
Supreme Court ordered the annexation of the corrupted 2002 
list to the clean 2007 list.  Luckily, the two lists remain 
segregated, so our investment to computerize the voter roll 
(para 5) can still serve as a foundation for future 
elections.  Opposition parties also warn of "ghost" 
(non-existent) polling stations, pre-stuffed ballot boxes, 
and misreported totals from the polling stations to the 
reporting office. 
 
More Eyes and Ears 
------------------ 
 
¶11. (U) DRL is supporting the International Republican 
Institute's (IRI) observation mission with $2 million.  IRI 
had planned for 40 observers, including 22 long-term 
observers arriving immediately.  It appears now that USAID 
will be able to supplement this mission with an additional $1 
million to fund 25 additional short-term observers.  IRI is 
establishing seven hubs throughout Pakistan, targeting key 
population centers, historically fraud-prone areas and 
possible swing districts. 
 
¶12. (U)  Mission Pakistan has identified 84 districts which 
we believe are worth watching.  Some will be close contests, 
others may switch parties, and many are infamous for fraud. 
We will field a robust, mission-wide effort of 20-25 observer 
teams, which should be able to cover many of these "watch 
list" districts.  We will also coordinate with "like minded" 
missions, particularly with the British High Commission, in 
order to further extend the reach of bilateral 
diplomat-observers. 
 
¶13. (U) USAID will contribute $700,000 toward a joint project 
with other international donors, supporting Pakistani NGO 
Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN) in fielding 20,000 
domestic observers in 110 districts.  USAID also is 
supporting UNDP's training of polling staff as well as 
domestic and international observers (including Mission 
Pakistan staff) with $1.5 million. 
 
¶14. (SBU) Our efforts are rounded out by DRL funding at $2 
million for FAFEN's parallel vote tabulation (PVT) and voter 
attitude survey.  FAFEN pollsters will set up camp at 30 
randomly selected polling stations throughout the country. 
Nearly 8,000 sample points will be gathered to extrapolate 
parallel results.  These results, however, will not be 
released until 48 hours after the election close.  Opposition 
parties, specifically the PPP, have asked for a PVT in 
particular as a check on electoral fraud (allegedly by the 
ruling PML). 
 
¶15. (SBU) Comment: Only a government that is perceived as 
being legitimate can provide the kind of effective partner 
the USG needs to fight the battle against extremism.  We are 
under no illusions that elections in Pakistan will be 
 
ISLAMABAD 00005160  003 OF 003 
 
 
completely free and fair, but we are doing everything we can 
to ensure that the elections are credible in the eyes of the 
Pakistani people and the international community.  End 
comment. 
 
PATTERSON