VZCZCXYZ0002
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #2318/01 3450746
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 110746Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9876
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002318 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; ARGENTINE NEW ADMINISTRATION; IRAN; 
COLOMBIA; 12/10/07 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Weekend international stories include US expectations over 
Argentina's new administration; the National Intelligence Estimate 
pointing out that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003; 
and Colombian President Uribe's decision to grant a "meeting zone" 
with the FARC. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS 
 
- "Inflation and energy - Wall Street and its doubts about the new 
(Argentine) Government" 
 
Ana Baron, leading "Clarin's" Washington-based correspondent, writes 
(12/10) "When taking office, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will 
inherit the great economic recovery her husband obtained following 
the profound meltdown the country went through. However, there is 
much uncertainty in Wall Street about what could happen from now on. 
The center of mistrust is the problem of INDEC. 
 
"Cristina is the first one in acknowledge that if Argentina wants to 
achieve sustainable economic growth, it will have to get more 
investment, but will she take the necessary steps to woo investors? 
 
"Wall Street and international investors with interests in Argentina 
are closely following Argentina's attempts to start negotiations 
over its Paris Club debt without an IMF agreement. They consider it 
crucial for Argentina to start re-inserting itself in international 
markets. This will require by necessity a negotiation with holdout 
bondholders. However, the most important concerns for them are 
short-term issues, such as inflation and INDEC." 
 
- "Washington expects Cristina to promote the country's opening to 
the world" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," comments (12/10) "The US expects and 
wishes changes when Cristina Fernandez takes over, although it does 
not expect too many changes compared to the latest four and a half 
years during which Nestor Kirchner led the country. It is not by 
chance that they have been husband and wife and political partners 
for more than 30 years. Official and Democratic sources consulted 
buy 'La Nacion' agree that we will have to wait and see. 
 
"The US-Argentine bilateral relationship has had ups and downs since 
2003, and even though Buenos Aires sources say that the ex senator 
will encourage a more internationalist and open view, Washington 
prefers to test it in practice. 
 
"A member of the Bush administration told 'La Nacion': 'With 
Argentina one should always make progress step by step. We were 
'sold' a more open image of Argentina to the world and particularly 
towards the US, but we will have to wait. We do not know how much 
the (bilateral) relationship will change under the Cristina 
administration. 
 
"Within the USG, there are different views on Argentina. US 
Ambassador to Argentina Earl Anthony Wayne represents the group that 
highlights the progress made by the Kirchners on poverty alleviation 
and unemployment reduction and the years of steady growth. 
 
"... The US Treasury staff shows a more reticent posture, just like 
the National Security Council and several lawmakers from both 
political parties. They consider that Argentina should put its 
economy on a sound track and solve its foreign troubles (Paris Club 
debt and holdouts) if it wants to capture new investment and foreign 
financing." 
 
- "Iran - erroneous perceptions of the enemy" 
 
Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin," 
writes (12/08) "16 US intelligence agencies seem to be determined to 
reverse their own reputation of hurried and political manipulation 
of sensitive peace- and war-related issues. At least, this seems to 
be the primary intention of the latest National Intelligence 
Assessment joint report, which informs that Iran halted its nuclear 
weapons program in 2003. 
 
"Any action in this direction deserves to be welcomed because much 
depends on these institutions in terms of contributing to the 
decision-making process of the world military hegemonic power to 
preserve international peace. There is too much evidence about the 
clumsiness and hurriedness that served to trigger disasters such as 
the invasion of Iraq, which could have been avoided through politics 
and diplomacy... 
 
"Interestingly enough, we should note two pieces of information. 
 
First, that Iran halted its nuclear program the same year the US-UK 
led coalition entered Iraq... We should bear in mind a warning from 
Ray Takeyh (a Yale academic expert in the region), who wrote an 
extremely interesting book called 'Hidden Iran - Paradox and Power 
in the Islamic Republic', in which he explains that 'getting the 
enemy wrong' lies at the root of the arm-wrestling between the West 
and Iran. Takeyh calls for a new, fresh and impartial assessment of 
the Iranian phenomenon to find new formulae for solutions. 
 
"The second piece of information we should not overlook is that Bush 
decided to rouse the specter of a new 'Third World War' last 
October, only two months after the intelligence agency directors 
presented the content of the new NIE report. This confirms that the 
use of intelligence produced by his administration depends on 
whether or not the assessment supports his positions. Otherwise, it 
is of no use. 
 
"What does this mean? In principle, that this new report is not 
issued to change Washington's official aggressive posture on Iran. 
And also that Bush has found it increasingly difficult to make 
peace- and war-related decisions after the Iraqi fiasco... We should 
also bear in mind that those who are part of the US political game 
are generating conditions to reduce the Republican's remaining 
power." 
 
- "The image that engendered the change" 
 
Leandro Uria, international columnist of daily-of-record "La 
Nacion," writes (12/10) "Colombian President Alvaro Uribe's 
announcement that he would set up a 'meeting zone' where the FARC 
could make a humanitarian exchange seems inconsistent with his 
inflexible image toward guerrillas... 
 
"How can one explain such a change? First and foremost, due to the 
tremendous international pressure put on Uribe after the video with 
Colombian-French citizen Ingrid Betancourt was made public... 
 
"... In the event Uribe, who no longer has a mediator, did not make 
a conclusive gesture to approach the guerrillas, he ran the risk of 
missing the best opportunity for a humanitarian exchange he has had 
in recent years. And, based on what everyone could see from the 
image of the kidnapped Betancourt, the risk seems to be high... 
 
"... According to some rumors these days, Uribe's reticence about 
the demilitarized zone was related more to the protection of his 
political support... rather than to a real military risk. 
 
"As a matter of fact, Uribe is now offering to set up a much smaller 
area than in 1998, which he can easily recover if needed. Everything 
points towards a favorable time for  successful negotiations. The 
cost of a failure would be hard to take for both parties in the 
conflict." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
WAYNE