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DE RUEHBS #3514 3511428
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171428Z DEC 07
FM USEU BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 003514 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/ERA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL EUN
SUBJECT:  SPANISH FORMER PM TO CHAIR PANEL ON EU'S LONG-TERM 
CHALLENGES 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY.  EU leaders on December 14 set up an independent panel 
headed by former Spanish PM Felipe Gonzalez to reflect on long-term 
challenges facing the EU until 2020-2030.  Originally the brainchild 
of French President Sarkozy who wanted the EU to discuss its final 
borders (read: Turkey), the panel will mainly study slightly less 
controversial issues such as Europe's economy and social model, 
migration, energy, and climate change.  Nevertheless, Sarkozy's wish 
was met by an oblique formula in the mandate for the panel to study 
"how the stability and prosperity of both the Union and the wider 
region might best be served.".  The 12-member panel, to be 
vice-chaired by a former Latvian President and the Chair of Nokia, 
will start working in September 2008 (during the French Presidency) 
and report in June 2010, a timetable designed to avoid any 
interference with the Lisbon Treaty ratification process.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  EU leaders in their December 14 European Council meeting agreed 
to set up an independent "Reflection Group" to be chaired by former 
Spanish PM Felipe Gonzalez "to help the Union anticipate and meet 
challenges more effectively" over the long-term (horizon 2020-2030). 
 Gonzales will be assisted by former President of Latvia Vaira 
Vike-Freiberga and by Jorma Ollila, a chief executive of Finnish 
mobile phone manufacturer Nokia.  Gonzalez appeared to emerge as a 
compromise candidate after France and the Baltics pushed 
Vike-Freiberga, while Finland lobbied for Ollila, also backed by the 
UK.  The group will include "no more than nine (other) members" 
(expected to be drawn from various backgrounds -- academia, 
business, trade unions, etc.), who will be "selected from across the 
Union on the basis of merit."  Gonzalez and his two vice-chairs will 
submit a list of names to be considered by the European Council 
during the French Presidency.  To avoid any interference with the 
Lisbon Treaty ratification process, the leaders tasked the group to 
start working in September 2008 and to report its conclusions in 
June 2010. 
 
¶3.  The idea of such a panel - first called a group of "Wise Men," a 
term implying there would be no female members in it - originally 
came from French President Sarkozy, who wanted to engage the EU in a 
discussion of its final borders.  Pro-enlargement countries (UK, 
Czech Republic and the Nordics) and the Commission were suspicious 
of a plan perceived as a way to stop the enlargement process and of 
shifting EU policy against Turkish membership.  The current 
Portuguese Presidency then proposed to give the panel a 
broadly-worded mandate that would avoid the most sensitive issues, 
including the reopening of the EU institutional debate, the reform 
of existing EU policies (such as the common agricultural policy), 
the 2008-2009 reform of EU finances as well as specific reference to 
the EU's future geographical borders. 
 
¶4.  As crafted by the EU PermReps and endorsed by the FMs (December 
10) and the European Council, the mandate will be to identify "the 
key issues and developments that the EU is likely to face" and to 
"analyze how these might be addressed."  Among these subjects, the 
text quotes: "the reinforcement and modernization of the "European 
model of economic success and social responsibility," the rule of 
law, sustainable development, global security, migration, energy, 
climate protection, and the fight against international crime and 
terrorism.  The group will also "need to take account of likely 
developments within and outside Europe and examine in particular how 
the stability and prosperity of both the Union and of the wider 
region might best be served in the longer term."  French officials 
highlighted the formula as involving an implicit mandate to discuss 
Turkey and the "borders of Europe."  Sarkozy told his final press 
conference the group would reflect on "the contents of the European 
dream," asking: "Is the vision still the same as the vision of an 
integrated Europe that we had after WWII?"  Sarkozy said the group 
"should not necessarily decide but could very well propose options." 
 
 
¶5. COMMENT.  The establishment of the panel and the wording of its 
mandate owe much to the EU's collective need to enlist French 
support for the continuation of the accession negotiations with 
Turkey (two new chapters will be opened on December 19).  Danish PM 
Anders Fogh Rasmussen made it clear the group was "something that we 
reluctantly agreed because it is important for one big Member 
State." 
END COMMENT. 
 
MURRAY