VZCZCXRO1370
PP RUEHRG
DE RUEHBR #2335/01 3621910
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 281910Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0721
INFO RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 1384
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 5613
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 7532
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 5191

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 002335 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PLEASE PASS TO IO, IO/T, ISN/NESS Richard J.K. Stratford; and 
DOE/MNSA Adam Scheinman, Richard Goorevich, and Melissa Krupa 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: AORC ENRG IAEA KNNP TRGY BR
SUBJECT: BRAZIL: IAEA DG ELBARADEI ADDRESES LATIN AMERICA-EUROPE 
CONFERENCE ON NUCLEAR ENERGY 
 
REF: A) Brasilia 2047; B) Brasilia 2185; C) Brasilia 1721 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: On December 6-7, 2007, Rio based think-tank CEBRI 
(Centro Brasileiro de Relacoes Internacionais - Brazilian Center for 
International Relations) hosted an international seminar geared 
toward promotion of the use of nuclear energy and to enhancing the 
nuclear energy dialogue between Europe and Latin America.  World 
Nuclear Association Director General, John Ritch, opened the seminar 
with his pitch for nuclear energy as an answer to threat of global 
climate change and to rising energy needs in the developing world. 
These themes resonated throughout the two-day conference.  IAEA 
Director General Mohamed ElBaradei described the virtues of nuclear 
energy and the potential safety and security challenges associated 
with what he sees as a "major expansion of the use of nuclear energy 
in the future, especially among smaller and developing countries." 
Brazilian nuclear experts and professionals also described local 
capabilities, and plans to construct several new nuclear facilities 
by 2030.  To this end, foreign investment in the Brazilian nuclear 
sector may also greatly increase in the near term.  End Summary. 
 
IF THE WORLD WERE A RIVER WE'VE REACHED THE WHITEWATER 
 
¶2. (SBU) World Nuclear Association (WNA) Director General, John 
Ritch, opened the seminar by concluding that "nuclear energy is the 
future of mankind and civilization - it is an indispensable asset to 
combat an environmental crisis (global climate change) while 
simultaneously satisfying rapidly increasing global human demands 
for energy." (Note: Full text of Ritch's presentation available in 
English at: http://www.cebri.org.br/09_visualizapdf.cfm?n rSecao=4. 
End note).  Ritch explained that due to "human inventiveness," i.e., 
industrialization and technological advancement, the global 
population dramatically increased over the last century alone. 
Similarly, IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei opined that 
nuclear energy may be a solution to what he described as the great 
challenges for contemporary humanity - global climate change, 
extreme poverty and "a world hanging in the balance because of the 
prevalence of nuclear weapons, especially in the case of 
establishing a security agreement in the Middle East." 
 
¶3. (SBU) With regard to the environment, Ritch stated that "if the 
world were a river, we've reached the whitewater."  In other words, 
we have reached a "point of no return" where human activities are 
driving the environment into imbalance.  Ritch emphasized that human 
activities around the world are contributing to threat of global 
climate change and that this threat must be addressed by reducing 
anthropogenic greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere. 
Nuclear energy, he said, is the answer due to its potential to 
produce lower GHG emissions, while at the same time satisfy rising 
global energy needs.  Moreover, it could also help to fuel the clean 
energy revolution by increasing our ability to rely on hydrogen and 
battery power.  According to Ritch, "the true environmental problem 
is that nuclear energy is not growing fast enough." 
 
¶4. (SBU) Ritch went on to point out that rising global energy needs 
and production costs are also of concern - the developed world has 
ongoing energy demands, while under developed and developing 
countries are in desperate need of energy as they accelerate growth. 
 In addition to electricity, energy demands in the latter regions 
are also rising, e.g., because of the need for governments to 
provide potable water to their populations via the energy hungry 
desalinization process.  According to Ritch, nuclear energy is 
currently the most cost effective energy production method and this 
benefit will only increase as governments begin to impose penalties 
for excess GHG emissions. 
 
A NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE 
 
¶5. (SBU) Presenters at the seminar were unanimous - nuclear energy 
is enjoying a renaissance due to changing global realities and 
political climates.  These changes have led to new partnerships and 
more public acceptance of nuclear energy.  For example, Ritch 
pointed out USG-India cooperation and the recently reinvigorated 
nuclear energy cooperation among India, Brazil and South Africa 
(reftel A).  In order to ensure that the nuclear renaissance 
continues, Ritch also highlighted that as we move beyond the Kyoto 
Protocol we must construct a global regime of contraction (reduce 
GHG emissions) and convergence (equalize per capita emissions rights 
and access to nuclear fuel), and also elevate nuclear investment 
(especially in the face of what Ritch termed as a failing UN system 
that is being intimidated by anti-nuclear voices).  He added that 
building the nuclear profession through science and technology and 
management education (e.g., WNA Summer Institute and orientation 
course in Brazil first week of March 2008), and using public 
diplomacy tools to ease public concerns about nuclear energy 
 
BRASILIA 00002335  002 OF 003 
 
 
(especially as it relates to waste) are equally  important. 
 
¶6. (SBU) ElBaradei added that the following factors will determine 
the future of nuclear energy: 1) infrastructure; 2) innovation; 3) 
safety - the lifeline of nuclear power; 4) security - protect from 
nuclear materials falling into the wrong hands and accelerate 
conclusion of responsibilities under the NPT; 5) economic 
competitiveness; 6) equity among nations - small countries should 
consider a regional approach to developing nuclear power and fuel 
should be multi-nationalized; and 7) waste - experts say that waste 
can effectively and safely dealt with - the challenge will be to 
educate the public. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Ambassador Sergio Duarte, Brazil's High Representative for 
Disarmament Affairs, agreed the concept of a nuclear renaissance, 
but emphasized that assuring equity in its revival is essential. 
Peaceful use of nuclear energy, he said, should be available to any 
and all countries.  He pointed out that for many states, "the global 
nuclear regime is evolving in a lop-sided, even discriminatory 
manner" and that many non-nuclear weapons states also have concerns 
over "the need to restore some fairness and balance in the 
distribution of responsibilities of states that participate in the 
Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) regime."  The resulting "crisis of 
confidence" in the NPT requires tightening of non-proliferation 
controls as well as more significant progress in disarmament and 
overcoming obstacles to the peaceful uses of energy." 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Duarte went on to say that the nuclear renaissance may 
become an important solution to the fight against global warming, 
but it will also likely produce thousands of tons of new fissile 
material that will need to be stored and/or disposed of.  Thus, in 
order to meet the challenges of nuclear energy in the future Duarte 
said that the evolving nuclear regime must: 1) increase IAEA 
leadership on dialogues involving the NPT, fuel cycle debate and 
other negotiations; 2) recognize the rights of all countries to the 
peaceful use of nuclear energy (universal membership); 3) demand 
that nuclear weapons states comply with their obligations under 
international law; and 4) require all states to ensure that domestic 
law and policy is consistent with international non-proliferation 
regimes. 
 
BRAZIL'S NUCLEAR FUTURE 
 
¶9. (SBU) Representatives from both the Brazilian Association for the 
Development of Nuclear Activities (ABDAN) and the Brazilian Nuclear 
Energy Association (ABEN) described the green virtues of nuclear 
energy (Note: Brazil is the fourth largest emitter of GHGs 
worldwide, but the majority of its emissions occur as a result of 
deforestation, not fossil fuel emissions. End Note).  They also 
lauded nuclear energy's cost effectiveness and the ever-increasing 
energy demand in Brazil, especially in rural areas.  Accordingly, 
Brazil has revived the construction of its third nuclear reactor 
(Angra III - est. completion by 2014) and plans to build 4-8 new 
nuclear reactors by 2030. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Demonstrating the broad governmental support that the 
development of nuclear energy enjoys in Brazil, Brazilian Minister 
of Science and Technology, Sergio Rezende, highlighted the prominent 
role that nuclear energy development will play in the Ministry's 
recently released national S&T plan (Note: The plan was announced in 
November of 2007 by President Lula.  Overall, the plan calls for an 
estimated USD 11 Billion in funding).  Rezende reiterated that 
Brazil supports universal use of nuclear energy for peaceful 
purposes and that Brazil stands to play an important role in the 
international nuclear renaissance.  Rezende added that Brazil is 
working to address the challenges of security and safety, waste, 
development of human resources, and the expanded exploration of 
uranium. 
 
¶11. (SBU) In addition to public financing of its ambitious nuclear 
energy agenda, Brazil has also appeared to garner significant 
interest from international private investors.  For example, French 
company Areva (a major sponsor of the seminar) is reportedly making 
a serious push to provide its services in Brazil as the Brazilian 
government expands nuclear power.  During the seminar, Areva Brazil 
Executive Director, Johannes Hobart, presented France "as a 
reference case for safe and sustainable production of nuclear 
energy."  He added that "Areva is the only company in the world that 
provides services for all cycles of production and recycling."  With 
regard to uranium prospecting, in conjunction with Brazilian 
juggernaut Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD), Australia and Canada 
also have plans underway to revive uranium prospecting in Brazil. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Brazil indeed appears to have sufficient uranium supplies 
 
BRASILIA 00002335  003 OF 003 
 
 
to meet the planned growth of its nuclear energy sector.  The 
majority of its reserves are conveniently concentrated in three 
geographic areas of Brazil: (Pitinga (NW); Santa Quiteria (NE); and 
Lagoa Real (CE).  At present, Brazil processes about 400 tons per 
year, but production is planned to increase to 800 tons by 2011. 
According to figures presented by Leonam dos Santos Guimares, 
Advisor to the President of Eletronuclear, Brazil ranks 6th in the 
world in terms of uranium reserves (6.7% of worldwide reserves) - 
(survey of Brazil's reserves were done in the mid to late 70s), but 
only 30% of Brazil's reserves have actually been prospected. 
Guilherme Camargo of ABEN added that while mining of uranium is 
ongoing, prospecting has not occurred since the 80s. 
 
¶13. (SBU) According to Brazilian experts at the seminar, Brazil also 
has the capacity to deal with nuclear waste and spent fuel.  To 
oversee the waste from expanded nuclear energy production, the 
Brazilian government plans to create the Empresa Brasileira de 
Rejeitos Radioativos (Brazilian Radioactive Waste Agency), which 
will deal exclusively with nuclear waste.  For high level waste and 
spent fuel, Brazil plans to use a deep geological deposit model 
similar to that used by Sweden.  (Note: Brazil already has 3 
temporary waste deposits for low-level waste and 2 pools for 
temporary spent fuel storage.  The issue of waste has also affected 
Brazilian public perception of nuclear energy due to an accident in 
city of Goiana in 1987 where a cylinder with radioactive material 
was removed from an abandoned medical clinic.  The removal and 
subsequent spreading of the radioactive material to the local 
population resulted in several deaths and many more cases of 
radioactive poisoning.  Clean-up of the site did not conclude until 
¶1997. End Note). 
 
REGIONAL COOPERATION 
 
¶14. (SBU) Regionally, South America is not immune to the global 
challenges of climate change, rising energy demands, and poverty. 
Moreover, as leaders in the region and current users of nuclear 
power, DG ElBaradei said that he could "see Brazil as a regional 
supplier and Argentina could become a joint partner."  Other 
countries in the region are also interested in nuclear power - 
ElBaradei explained that leaders in Chile and Uruguay told him that 
they are interested in developing nuclear energy capabilities. 
 
¶15. (SBU) In the case of Argentina, Argentine Ambassador Elsa Kelly 
briefly described Argentina's support of non-proliferation efforts 
and of peaceful uses of nuclear power.  Kelly highlighted the 
important bilateral relationship with Brazil in this regard.  She 
also provided an update on Argentina's position on the Additional 
Protocol (AP) and Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP). 
According to Kelly, Argentina still maintains observer status in 
GNEP.  She added that Argentina will likely take Brazil's lead 
regarding the AP and will not finalize its position on the AP until 
Brazil does. (reftel B and C). 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶16. (SBU) Brazil clearly seeks to raise its profile within what many 
are calling a nuclear renaissance.  Plans with political support are 
underway in Brazil to make nuclear energy a significant part of its 
domestic energy portfolio in the future.  Moreover, as the concept 
of supply assurances gains more traction, Brazil also has the 
ambition and the natural resource capacity to become a regional 
supplier of nuclear fuel.  Internationally, Brazil is wooing private 
investment in its nuclear sector and voicing its position on NPT 
obligations and equitable access to nuclear energy for all states. 
Opportunities for US investment in the Brazilian nuclear sector also 
likely exist, although such investments were not discussed at the 
seminar.  At least two questions that remain to be seen are whether 
public financing of Brazil's nuclear develop plans will materialize 
over time, and whether Brazil's plans to deal with nuclear waste 
will keep pace with its ambitious production goals. 
 
CHICOLA