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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 BRASILIA 002217 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/FO FOR A/S SHANNON, WHA/BSC, NEA/FO 
STATE PASS USTR FOR KATE DUCKWORTH 
NSC FOR TOMASULO 
TREASURY FOR JHOEK 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC 
USDOC ALSO FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO 
USAID FOR LAC/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ETRD KPAL OVIP EFIN AMGT VE BL AR
BR 
SUBJECT: BRAZIL'S FOREIGN MINISTER DISCUSSES GLOBAL, 
REGIONAL AND BILATERAL ISSUES 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR CLIFFORD M. SOBEL; REASONS: 1.4 (B, D) 
 
------ 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) In a November 30 meeting in Sao Paulo, Ambassador 
Sobel and Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim discussed a 
range of global, regional and bilateral issues. On the 
region's most pressing issues - such as political 
developments in Venezuela and Bolivia, and Colombia-Venezuela 
bilateral tensions - Amorim called for moderation and 
dialogue, but shied away from committing Brazil to play a 
role as mediator.  On global issues, Amorim voiced optimism 
on the Annapolis Conference and the prospects for a deal on 
agriculture to push the Doha trade negotiations forward.  As 
for the range of bilateral issues that are on the table, the 
meeting revealed considerable agreement on such matters as: 
the tax treaty, recently passed legislation on the sale of 
diplomatic property and aviation negotiations.  In addition 
to making suggestions for Secretary Rice's upcoming visit to 
Brazil, Amorim indicated a willingness to meet with senior 
USG officials traveling to Brazil in the coming months. 
 
-------------------------------- -------------------- 
Venezuela: Amorim fears turmoil with victory of 'No' 
-------------------------------- -------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) With two days before the December 2 referendum in 
Venezuela, the Ambassador asked Amorim his view of the likely 
outcome.  Amorim responded that according to the GOB's 
analysis, the 'yes' (pro-Chavez) was likely to win by a 
slight margin.  He noted that the victory of the 'yes' is 
probably "the best result because I'm more fearful if the 
'no' is victorious.  I think there could be a lot of 
turmoil."  In this regard, Amorim referenced - but did not 
elaborate on - Chavez' recent statements about having to 
rethink his own future and that of the Bolivarian Revolution 
in the event of a loss in the referendum. 
The Ambassador solicited Amorim's views on the likelihood 
that the vote tabulations would be transparent in the absence 
of international observers.  Amorim admitted that he didn't 
know, and regretted that there would be no OAS presence. 
Looking at his advisors, Amorim said, "this is something we 
should have thought about earlier." (Note: Given the close 
results of the referendum, post will continue to engage MRE 
counterparts on this issue to gauge the level of concern. End 
Note) 
 
---------------------------------- 
Bolivia: GOB reluctant to mediate 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) In responding to the Ambassador's mention of the 
recent violence in Bolivia surrounding the reconvening of the 
Constituent Assembly, Amorim responded that the GOB is 
following the developments with "interest and concern" but 
that it "is not easy to see what to do."  He noted that the 
current violence has been perpetrated mostly by the 
opposition.  He regretted the opposition's decision to 
boycott the Assembly.  The Ambassador asked if the GOB had 
any reaction to the decision to move forward in voting for 
the new Constitution without the participation of the 
opposition.  Amorim admitted that "this was not a good 
approach" but on the other hand emphasized that the Bolivian 
 
BRASILIA 00002217  002 OF 005 
 
 
government is assuring that the opposition Assembly members 
have nothing to fear.  In responding to the Ambassador's 
question on whether the retraction of the draft Constitution 
is on the table, Amorim stated that a complete retraction is 
"very difficult" although he noted that as a face-saving 
measure, some articles could be revisited.  (Note: subsequent 
media reports contradict this prediction. End Note) 
 
¶4.  (C) Amorim said that the challenge is to convince people 
that dialogue is better than confrontation.  He emphasized 
that the GOB "is on the side of moderation and dialogue."  He 
warned against the opposition acting "in a putschist way or 
threatening to secede."  Amorim noted that the GOB has been 
approached by Bolivia's opposition, "but we have to be 
careful.  Mediation is not something you go around loosely 
offering."  (Note: Amorim inserted a passing reference to the 
bilateral tensions between Colombia and Venezuela, and 
indicated that Brazil is not keen to play a mediator role in 
this situation either, as has been speculated in the press. 
End Note)  Amorim expressed his hope that Lula's upcoming 
visit to Bolivia "and what it symbolized" will help alleviate 
the crisis.  On the other hand, Amorim also mentioned that 
Lula is reluctant to meet with the opposition during that 
trip.  Amorim warned that comparisons with the circumstances 
surrounding the downfall of former Bolivian president Gonzalo 
Sanchez de Lozada are not well-founded, as Morales - unlike 
Sanchez de Lozada - still enjoys the support of the majority 
of the Bolivian population.  (Note: Sanchez de Lozada 
resigned mid-term in October 2003 following weeks of civil 
unrest and protests, involving now-President Evo Morales. End 
Note) 
 
¶5.  (C) The Ambassador asked Amorim for his views on the 
extent of Venezuela's involvement in Bolivia. Amorim 
responded that there is an "obvious relationship, but it is 
hard to say how much influence."  He also noted that while 
Chavez may have "hopes or illusions that he can operate 
independently because of oil" Evo's situation is different 
and he would never, for example, attack the King of Spain (as 
Chavez did during the recent Ibero-American Summit in 
Santiago). 
 
------------------------------------ 
Doha: a new roadmap on agriculture? 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶6.  (C) The Ambassador noted with appreciation Amorim's 
comments following his November 26 meeting with USTR 
Ambassador Susan Schwab.  Amorim recognized that he was 
making an effort in his remarks to highlight the "positive 
climate" despite negotiating hard issues.  He referenced a 
new phase in the Doha talks that will come soon, which 
coincides with press interviews he gave earlier in the day 
predicting ministerial level talks on agriculture in 
February.  In discussing an eventual new text on agriculture 
that he expected for late January, Amorim admitted that he 
"doesn,t know what it will look like" but emphasized that 
the U.S. and Brazil have several "coincidental interests." 
Amorim listed market access, quota calculations and tariff 
caps, and said there was partial convergence on export 
competition. 
 
¶7.  (C) Amorim stated his belief that "If we have a 
reasonable result in agriculture, there could be a good 
outcome."  In referring to the position Brazil took during 
 
BRASILIA 00002217  003 OF 005 
 
 
the October talks in Geneva regarding the percentage of 
special products that can be exempt from tariff lines, Amorim 
called for a "non-governmental approach on flexibilities." 
In defining what he meant by that, Amorim reiterated the 
position that "Mercosur -as a customs union made up of 
developing countries - still has asymmetries. We don't all 
have the same 10 percent.  Everyone will have to put his or 
her touch on the documents, and there is no reason to be 
dogmatic on some issues and flexible on others." 
 
¶8.  (C) The Ambassador inquired on Brazil's outlook on 
Argentina vis--vis president-elect Cristina Fernandez de 
Kirchner.  Amorim shied away from the question, but noted 
that president-elect Kirchner "is a female president, and all 
countries like to have their value and worth."  He mentioned 
recent press reports coming out of Argentina that "are less 
than encouraging" in that they argue that an agriculture 
trade deal is not urgent "as the price of commodities will be 
high for some time." He then suggested that Ambassador Schwab 
make a trip to Argentina as soon as possible. (Comment: 
Amorim's comments about "value and worth" were unclear but 
perhaps he was pointing to a potentially stronger stance 
concerning agriculture.  In suggesting that Ambassador Schwab 
visit soon, Amorim may believe that she can moderate the 
president-elect's negotiating line on agriculture and at the 
same time make Argentina less dependant on Brazil advocating 
Argentine interests. End Comment) 
 
---------------------------------- ------------------------ 
Annapolis: A new opportunity for Brazil's global leadership 
ambitions? 
--------------------------------- ------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (C) Amorim characterized the outcome of the Annapolis 
Conference as "very positive" and was thankful for the 
invitation to participate.  He appreciated the opportunity to 
reiterate Brazil's position on the Israeli-Palestinian 
conflict, and emphasized the importance of the broad 
participation of the international community as a way to 
increase the stakes.  Amorim praised Secretary Rice for the 
way that she "intelligently" utilized her own childhood to 
empathize with both the Palestinians and the Israelis. 
 
¶10.  (C) Amorim reiterated the GOB's desire to play a more 
significant role than in the past, specifically offering to 
host a conference for Israeli and Palestinian civil society 
leaders.  (Note: This offer was mentioned in Amorim's 
November 27 intervention at the Annapolis Conference. End 
Note)  The Ambassador suggested that this be a topic of 
conversation during the Secretary's visit to Brazil in 
January.  (Comment: While discussing Annapolis, Amorim 
mentioned that he is "sick of trade" and intimated that he is 
looking to branch out and take on new issues that would put 
Brazil in the spotlight as a global leader among developing 
countries.  From Brazil's perspective, the Annapolis 
Conference offers a new outlet for Brazil's global leadership 
ambitions. End Comment) 
 
---------------------------------------- 
No major obstacles for bilateral issues 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (C) The Ambassador and Amorim discussed a series of 
issues on the bilateral agenda: 
 
 
BRASILIA 00002217  004 OF 005 
 
 
- Tax Treaty:  In reference to follow-up to the October CEO 
Forum, the Ambassador noted his hope that there would be 
forward movement soon on negotiating a tax treaty.  Amorim 
voiced his support for the treaty ("this is a good thing"), 
but noted that the Brazilian IRS (Receita Federal) is "the 
most difficult (institution) to work with." 
 
- Property bill:  The Ambassador highlighted the recent 
unanimous vote in Brazil,s Senate in favor of the agreement 
on buying and selling diplomatic properties, a contentious 
issue for many years that has resulted in reciprocity 
measures.  Amorim indicated that he was not surprised at all 
by this development, as &the U.S. is in the hearts of 
everyone right now8.  The Ambassador assured Amorim that the 
bill,s passage will open the way for an expeditious opening 
of the Brazilian Consulate General in Atlanta.  The 
Ambassador also noted that he will be meeting with the 
appointed Consul General in the coming days. 
 
- Visas for law enforcement: The Ambassador referenced the 
recent delays in USG law enforcement officials obtaining 
their visas.  He emphasized that while the U.S. makes every 
effort to process such visas for Brazilian authorities within 
a day or two, the Brazilians are taking weeks.  Amorim 
promised to look into the situation. 
 
- Civil aviation negotiations: While this issue was not 
discussed at length, Amorim noted that the Foreign Ministry 
is very supportive of opening direct routes between the U.S. 
and Brazil's Northeast, a topic expected to be agreed upon 
during the upcoming bilateral aviation negotiations.  The 
Ambassador suggested that Secretary Rice and Foreign Minister 
Amorim could jointly announce these new routes from Salvador 
on January 10. 
 
- Cultural exchanges: Amorim suggested that the Mission bring 
to Brazil an art exhibit of a prominent American artist, even 
if only comprised of a dozen works of art.  Amorim promised 
to preside over an eventual inauguration.  The Ambassador 
made reference to the recently opened photographic exhibit 
commemorating 50 years of the Fulbright program in Brazil and 
the Missions intent to bring the exhibit to every state in 
Brazil. 
 
- Codel wrap-up: The Ambassador made reference to the recent 
large Codels that visited Brazil, and in particular to the 
synergies that emerged during the Codel Engel visit to the 
Brazilian Congress.  The Ambassador noted that Congressman 
Meeks was particularly enthused about possible future 
cooperation between the Congressional Black Caucus and 
Brazilian legislators. 
 
-------------------- 
Upcoming USG Visits 
-------------------- 
 
¶12.  (C) The Ambassador provided a status report on the 
planning for Secretary Rice's trip to Brazil in January, 
which he noted has not yet been 100% confirmed.  He mentioned 
that she would likely arrive in Salvador on January 10, 
following stops in two or three other countries in the 
region.  Amorim suggested that while in Salvador, the 
Secretary should visit the old city, a social project and 
 
SIPDIS 
possibly a site representative of Salvador's African origins. 
 
 
BRASILIA 00002217  005 OF 005 
 
 
¶13.  (C) The Ambassador referenced A/S Tom Shannon's visit to 
Brazil during the second week of December.  Amorim indicated 
that he would be happy to meet with A/S Shannon if in town. 
In discussing a possible future trip for U/S Nick Burns, 
Amorim suggested that he try to schedule a visit to coincide 
with Carnival (first week of February). 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶14.  (C) Brazil,s intent to seize on global leadership 
issues ) such as the Annapolis Conference and the Doha 
negotiations ) contrasts with their stated preference to 
maintain distance from South America,s most contentious 
issues: Venezuela and Bolivia.  As for bilateral relations, 
Amorim signaled continued goodwill, which can be further 
harnessed during upcoming visits by senior USG officials. 
 
¶15.   (U) Cable drafted by AmConsul Sao Paulo. 
 
SOBEL