VZCZCXRO9312
OO RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHBK #6257/01 3600850
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 260850Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1216
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS PRIORITY
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 8136
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY 2079
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 5361
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 0229
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL PRIORITY 4094
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 006257 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR PHU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THAI ELECTION: UNOFFICIAL RESULTS GOOD NEWS FOR 
PRO-THAKSIN PARTY 
 
REF: A. BANGKOK 6248 (CLOSE BUT NO CIGAR) 
 
     ¶B. BANGKOK 6243 (UNPREDICTABLE ELECTION) 
     ¶C. BANGKOK 6182 (RECORD-SETTING VOTING) 
     ¶D. BANGKOK 6159 (FOCUSING ON PPP) 
     ¶E. BANGKOK 6157 (ADVANCE VOTING) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Final, unofficial results from Thailand's December 
23 elections indicate that a record 74.5% of the electorate 
voted to give the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP) a 
plurality of 233 seats in the 480-seat House of 
Representatives, including a plurality of proportional party 
list seats.  The Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) said 
it will endorse non-contested election results on January 4. 
The ECT would investigate election irregularities within 30 
days, hold by-elections in problematic constituencies on 
January 13, and disqualify some MPs-elect if necessary.  The 
ECT voted to re-run a Northeast constituency election 
following vote-buying allegations and will continue 
investigations in other areas. Observers from the Asian 
Network for Free Elections said that the elections were 
generally well-administered, but raised concerns about 
pre-election vote-buying and the adjudication of fraud 
claims.  The process of choosing the new Senate has begun, 
with Senate elections tentatively scheduled for March 2.  End 
summary. 
 
PRO-THAKSIN PARTY STRENGTHENS HAND 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) On December 25, the Election Commission of Thailand 
(ECT) released final, although not yet officially certified 
results from the December 23 Thai election, which differed 
somewhat from unofficial results released on December 24 (ref 
A). These final figures indicate that that the pro-Thaksin 
People's Power Party (PPP) won 233 seats in the 480-seat 
House of Representatives, coming 8 votes short of achieving 
an absolute majority (241 seats are needed to form a 
government).  Based on the ECT's unofficial results, the 
tally stands at: 
 
PPP..............................233 
Democrat.........................165 
Chart Thai.......................37 
For the Motherland...............24 
Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana......9 
Matchima Thippathai..............7 
Pracharaj........................5 
 
¶3. (U) Of these 480 seats, the PPP was awarded 34 of the 80 
proportional party list seats in the parliament, while the 
Democrat Party won 33 seats.  The Motherland and Chart Thai 
parties won seven and four of these seats respectively, while 
the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and Pracharaj parties secured 
one party list seat each.  Election officials also revised 
their turnout statistics, stating that a record 74.45% of the 
electorate (32.8 million people out of 44 million registered 
voters) exercised their voting rights. 
 
¶4. (U) Also on December 25, the ECT announced that it would 
officially endorse the results in non-controversial 
constituencies no later than January 4.  (Note: By law, the 
ECT must declare official election results for trouble-free 
constituencies within seven working days of the election. 
End note.)  The ECT said it would complete investigations 
into election irregularities in contested constituency 
elections within 30 days.  These investigations could result 
in the disqualification of some candidates (red cards) 
followed by a re-run election, or the re-run of individual 
constituency races with all candidates re-competing (yellow 
cards).  The ECT set January 13 as the date for the first 
round of these by-elections. 
 
¶5. (U) On December 25,  election commissioners voted to 
formally "yellow card" three PPP Members of Parliament-elect 
in a Nakhon Ratchasima constituency in the Northeast for 
 
BANGKOK 00006257  002 OF 003 
 
 
allegedly using money to draw voters to pre-election campaign 
rallies.  These three PPP candidates will be eligible to 
re-compete in a January 13 by-election in their constituency. 
 The ECT also announced it had summoned four other PPP 
MPs-elect and two Democrat MPs-elect to testify on December 
27 before the ECT concerning allegations they had bought 
votes.  Additionally, the ECT said it would investigate two 
PPP MPs-elect concerning the pre-election distribution of a 
controversial VCD that contained a message from deposed Prime 
Minister Thaksin Shinawatra (ref D). 
 
¶6. (SBU) The media have continued to report on back-room 
negotiations between the PPP and other parties to form a new 
government, in spite of the pending ECT investigation and 
potential candidate disqualifications.  A senior PPP official 
told us that the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana, Matchima 
Thippathai, and Pracharaj parties had agreed to join a 
PPP-led government, thus giving the coalition a 254-seat 
majority in the 480-seat chamber.  A Democrat told us on 
election night that, as long as the PPP did not win an 
outright majority itself, he thought the Democrats still had 
a chance, depending on the results of the ECT 
disqualification decisions. (However, the PPP has picked up 
three seats more than was projected late on election night, 
and even three seats matter in this fight.)  Chart Thai 
leader Banharn has said publicly that his party would wait 
for the January 4 official announcement of results from the 
ECT. 
 
 
ANFREL COMMENDS ELECTION, WITH SOME CAVEATS 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFEL) held a press 
conference on December 25 to discuss the results of their 
observer mission. Delegates included representatives from 
South and Southeast Asia, including Thai members (from the 
Thai monitoring organization PNET.)  ANFREL said that 
procedures had gone smoothly on election day, but highlighted 
their concerns with violations in the pre-election period, 
and with the process of the adjudication of election fraud 
claims.  ANFREL mission head Damaso Magbual pointed to the 
problem of money politics. "People are scared to report vote 
buying ... because they fear for their own safety and doubt 
that anyone will be successfully prosecuted," he said in 
ANFREL's official statement.  ANFREL criticized the continued 
state of martial law in many provinces.  They acknowledged 
that it was not used in "a heavy-handed way" but said that, 
in Chiang Rai, they had received credible reports the army 
had tried to intimidate voters.  They were also critical of 
the influence of local officials, particularly village heads, 
who were often vote canvassers for political parties.  ANFREL 
raised concerns especially about these village officials 
serving on polling station committees, as they had observed 
in several provinces in the Northeast and Central provinces. 
 
¶8. (U)  Overall, ANFREL credited the ECT with "generally good 
administration" of the vote. They urged the ECT to tighten up 
the advance voting arrangements, as these were vulnerable to 
fraud.  They noted that the ECT's many regulations, although 
perhaps intended to create a "level playing field," led to 
confusion in some cases, and overburdened the ECT with minor 
infractions rather than focusing on serious breaches.  They 
encouraged the EC to investigate fraud allegations more 
vigorously, noting with disappointment the limited number of 
cases resolved so far.  In this context, they discussed a 
case in the rural Northeastern province of Mahasarakham, in 
which, they reported, villagers tried to give evidence to the 
police about the vote-buying, and to turn in the money they 
received; ANFREL reported that the police "actively 
discouraged" the villagers. Thai election monitoring 
organization PNET helped the villagers bring their claim 
directly to the ECT in Bangkok. 
 
¶9. (U)  During the Q and A, several reporters attempted to 
get the ANFREL panel members to state that PPP was the most 
active in buying votes, but the panelists demurred.  The Thai 
representative on the panel, referring to the Mahasarakham 
 
BANGKOK 00006257  003 OF 003 
 
 
case mentioned above, said that "PPP and Chart Thai" had both 
been involved in buying votes in that province, and alleged 
that those two parties had been the predominate vote-buyers 
in that area of the Northeast.  Another member of the group 
added, however, there were accusations against all parties. 
One distinguishing feature of vote-buying in Thailand, ANFREL 
pointed out, was that some parties appeared to be paying 
voters even in districts where they faced no real 
challengers.  Another questioner asked whether the prevalence 
of vote buying pointed to the failure of the "anti-vote 
buying committee" set up by Deputy PM GEN (ret.) Sonthi.  The 
Thai representative on the panel agreed, saying that in the 
Mahasarakham case, PNET had first contacted the anti-vote 
buying committee, but it had not wanted to get involved. 
Mission head Magbual also noted that ANFREL had raised 
specific cases with GEN Sonthi, but GEN Sonthi had deferred 
to the ECT to handle them. 
 
NEXT STEP: SENATE SELECTIONS AND ELECTIONS 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶10. (U) The constitution calls for each of the country's 76 
provinces to elect one Senator to the 150-seat upper house of 
parliament.  The remaining 74 Senators will be appointed from 
a selection committee composed of the heads of the country's 
courts and several independent commissions.  On December 25, 
the ECT said it was prepared to hold election for 76 of the 
150 Senators on March 2 and expects the new government to 
issue a royal decree calling for Senate elections.  The ECT 
announced it would convene the first meeting on December 26 
to work out a plan to select the country's 74 appointed 
Senators. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) With 233 seats, the game is the PPP's to lose.  The 
ECT does not appear to be backing down, however, and 
political tensions will remain high as the fraud adjudication 
process continues and the final seat tallies become clear. 
 
 
 
 
BOYCE