VZCZCXRO6296
PP RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHBK #6077/01 3411158
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 071158Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1000
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS PRIORITY
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 0139
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL PRIORITY 3997
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 5256
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY 2033
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 8045
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 006077 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MLS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: OFFICIAL BIAS AND VOTER INDECISION 
 
REF: A. BANGKOK 6007 (ARMY INTERFERENCE) 
     ¶B. BANGKOK 5914 (DISQUALIFICATIONS) 
     ¶C. BANGKOK 5881 (OATHS AND INSULTS) 
     ¶D. BANGKOK 5740 (CANDIDATE REGISTRATION) 
     ¶E. BANGKOK 5600 (MILITARY INTERFERENCE) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Coup leaders have reportedly claimed immunity from 
prosecution after an Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) 
panel concluded that the Council for National Security (CNS) 
was biased against the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party 
(PPP).  The CNS plans to send a prominent coup leader to 
testify before the ECT on December 11 to respond to 
allegations that leaked CNS documents purportedly prove the 
military planned to "interfere in politics," although 
credible observers predict the ECT would ultimately 
acknowledge the "non-neutrality" of the CNS and urge it to 
cease political activity.  A Democrat Party canvasser and 
minor party candidate were killed, although the murders do 
not appear politically motivated.  The ECT asked a government 
ministry to ban a pro-Thaksin web site after it posted a 
video clip advocating the return of deposed PM Thaksin, while 
polls continue to predict a strong showing for the PPP, but 
with many voters still undecided.  End summary. 
 
ELECTION COMMISSION SUMMONS COUP LEADERS 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) After an Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) 
committee concluded that coup leaders in the Council for 
National Security (CNS) were "biased" against the pro-Thaksin 
People's Power Party (PPP) (reftel A), a senior CNS general 
reportedly wrote to the ECT to defend the coup leaders' 
actions.  The press said that the CNS letter asked the ECT to 
cease its investigation into claims that leaked CNS documents 
(reftel E) allegedly prove the military planned to subvert 
the PPP.  The CNS general argued the CNS is immune from 
prosecution under provisions in the new constitution. 
 
¶3. (SBU) On December 3, the ECT announced it had invited Air 
Chief Marshal and acting CNS Chairman Chalit Phukpasuk to 
testify on the matter before the commission.  The CNS said it 
would send CNS Secretary General Winai Phatthiyakul instead 
to testify for the CNS.  An ECT commissioner said the ECT 
would issue a final ruling on the matter on December 12, 
although outspoken commissioner Sodsri Sattayatham publicly 
called for the ECT to refer the matter to the Constitutional 
Court.  Media sources believed the ECT ruling would 
ultimately acknowledge the "non-neutrality" of the CNS and 
urge it to cease political activity ahead of Thailand's 
December 23 election, while also absolving the PPP of the 
need to prove the alleged incriminating CNS documents are 
authentic. 
 
CANDIDATE KILLED 
---------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) On December 2, a minor party candidate was stabbed 
to death in a guesthouse in Prachuap Khiri Khan, south of 
Bangkok.  The victim's wallet and car were stolen, and the 
police subsequently arrested an 18 year old woman who 
admitted to the killing, claiming that the deceased planned 
to rape her, so she blindfolded him during acts of foreplay, 
bludgeoned him with a hammer, and stabbed him repeatedly. 
Despite this scenario, a representative of the party told the 
press that he suspected a political motive.  Also on December 
2, a Democrat Party canvasser in Patthalung Province was 
reportedly killed by a gunman on a motorcycle in broad 
daylight.  Police suspected the canvasser was killed as a 
result of a personal disagreement, although they said 
political motives could not be ruled out.  (Comment: Being a 
canvasser is traditionally a dangerous business in Thailand, 
with 10 killed in the run up to the 2005 elections, and more 
than twice that many before the Parliamentary elections in 
2000/2001.  Then as now, it was not clear how many of these 
were politically motivated, and how many due to business or 
personal disputes.  End comment.) 
 
BANGKOK 00006077  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
MINISTRY ASKED TO BAN PRO-THAKSIN WEB SITE 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) On December 6, the press reported that ECT 
Commissioner Sodsri would ask the Ministry of Information and 
Communication Technology (ICT) to shut down the pro-Thaksin 
web site hi-thaksin.net.  The ECT claimed the web site causes 
"divides in society," as a recently posted video clip implied 
that a vote for the PPP would facilitate the return of 
deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.  The ICT 
reportedly confirmed it would review the ECT request and 
would exercise its authority to close the web site if it 
breached election laws. 
 
POLLS: PRO-THAKSIN PARTY IN THE LEAD 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) Polling in advance of the December 23 elections 
continues to predict a plurality for the PPP and at least a 
70% voter turnout, although many voters appear to still be 
undecided.  A recent ABAC poll of approximately 10,000 voters 
in 33 provinces conducted between November 20 and December 5 
found that 47% had yet to decide which party to support for 
80 party list seats in the 480-seat House of Representatives. 
 39% indicated they had yet to decide which candidate to 
support for 400 constituency seats.  The poll results 
indicated 73% would vote on election day, and that the PPP 
would win 39 of the party list seats.  The poll also found 
that the Democrat Party would win 33 of these party list 
seats, while other parties would receive less support. 
 
¶7. (SBU) A November 25 - 28 Daily News poll found that the 
PPP would win 181 total seats in the parliament, while the 
Democrat, Chart Thai and Motherland Parties would receive 
132, 56, and 51 seats respectively.  An anti-vote buying 
panel chaired by retired General and Deputy Prime Minister 
Sonthi Boonyaratglin reportedly conducted its own poll, which 
predicted a voter turnout of 71%.  (Comment:  Relatively few 
polling institutions in Thailand are considered to adhere to 
the highest standards of professionalism, and all poll 
statistics should be considered with skepticism. 
Nevertheless, our contacts unanimously agree with the current 
conventional wisdom, consistent with the aforementioned 
polls, that PPP will place first in the election, well ahead 
of the Democrat Party.  End comment.) 
BOYCE