VZCZCXRO0280
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #1269 3611351
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 271351Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0815
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 001269 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E AND INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR MA
SUBJECT:  RULING PARTY CEDES POWER GRACEFULLY IN THE CAPITAL 
 
REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 1234 
 
¶1.  (U) Official results trickling in from the December 12 municipal 
elections seem to confirm early speculation that the President's TIM 
party won throughout most of the country, with the exception of a 
spectacular defeat in Antananarivo (Reftel).  Businessman and 
political unknown Andry "TGV" Rajoelina beat TIM incumbent Hery 
Rafalimanana in Antananarivo with 63.27 percent of the vote. 
Although reliable statistics are not yet available, independent 
candidates had a relatively strong showing.  Approximately half of 
the new mayors who ran as independents hail originally from the TIM 
party. 
 
¶2.  (U) Despite fears to the contrary, President Ravalomanana and 
his party are taking their defeat in Antananarivo gracefully. 
Calling TIM's loss evidence that democracy is alive and healthy in 
Madagascar, President Ravalomanana has publicly said he is ready and 
willing to work with all the new mayors.  TIM President and Minister 
of Decentralization Yvan Randriasandratriniony acknowledged in a 
press conference the message sent by Antananarivo voters and said 
the party would take the necessary measures to remedy the situation. 
 Partially blaming the long-term absence of a secretary general for 
the defeat, the TIM President named Minister of Economy, Trade and 
Industry Ivohasina Razafimahefa (a close Embassy contact) the new 
Secretary General of TIM.  In a comment indicating he will continue 
 
SIPDIS 
forging ahead with development on his own terms, President 
Ravalomanana less tactfully told journalists, "I could care less 
about the people's message.  Whether the people are satisfied or 
not, it is not my problem.  I am not looking to satisfy the people, 
I want what is good for them." 
 
¶3. (U) Andry Rajoelina is wisely auditing the mayor's office to 
ensure everything is "clean" before he fully assumes his position as 
the new mayor of Antananarivo.  In a press conference aired on his 
privately-owned radio station VIVA December 21, Rajoelina announced 
the city's outstanding debts to its suppliers allegedly amount to 
7.7 billion Ariary or approximately 4.32 million USD, causing 
disruption to services such as garbage collection and access to 
potable water. 
 
¶4. (U) The Consortium of National Election Observers (CNOE), funded 
in part by the USG through a National Democratic Institute (NDI) 
program, dispatched 127 election observers throughout the country. 
While CNOE acknowledged the election day proceeded calmly, its 
observers noted the same minor irregularities seen in previous 
elections, many that could easily be addressed by electoral law 
reform.  Irregularities included persistent administrative problems 
with voter registration lists, the bias of public media, and 
candidates' unequal access to resources.  A number of independent 
candidates in the Antananarivo province are filing complaints with 
the Supreme Court alleging that while the results registered at 
district level collection centers showed them winning by a large 
margin in their municipalities, the official results have a TIM 
candidate winning. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) COMMENT:  TIM President Randriasandratriniony's attempts 
to characterize the number of independents hailing from TIM as proof 
the party is alive and well ring hollow.  The fact so many chose to 
run as independents suggests TIM's internal problems are far from 
being resolved.  Post is encouraged by the government's initial 
pledges to work with all mayors and will continue to monitor the 
handover of power, particularly in Antananarivo.  END COMMENT. 
 
MARQUARDT