VZCZCXRO1540
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #1243 3480414
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 140414Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0781
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 001243 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND INR/B 
PARIS FOR D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR MA
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT LOSES ANTANANARIVO 
 
REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 1231 
     B) ANTANANARIVO 1063 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Unofficial results from the December 12 municipal 
elections show the ruling TIM Party of President Marc Ravalomanana 
faring well throughout the country, with the notable exception of a 
humiliating upset in the capital of Antananarivo.  Andry "TGV" 
Rajoelina, a successful businessman but political unknown, appears 
to have won a landslide victory against the TIM incumbent Hery 
Rafalimanana.  The public is calling Rajoelina's win a vote of 
protest against cost of living and power outage problems in the 
capital, and hopes it will serve as an "alert" to the President that 
changes are in order throughout the country.  In general, the 
elections took place peacefully with minor irregularities 
surrounding voter registration lists and voter cards.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) While it is too soon to tell just how well TIM fared 
throughout the country, the first unofficial results show TIM 
leading in major regional cities.  Voter participation, estimated to 
fall between 25 and 30 percent throughout most of the country, was 
noticeably higher in Antananarivo with an estimated 40 to 50 percent 
showing up at the polls - approximately double the urban turnout of 
the September 23 National Assembly elections (Ref B). 
 
¶3. (SBU) Unofficial results show the independent Andry Rajoelina 
sweeping the polls in Antananarivo with approximately 62 percent of 
the vote; Embassy staff, observing at seven polling stations 
throughout the city, confirm these estimates.  That the President's 
party lost in his hometown, indeed even in his own polling station, 
and on his 58th birthday, is a humiliating upset.  The President had 
attached enormous importance to these elections, even skipping the 
Europe-Africa Summit in Lisbon in order to campaign.  In the 
President's privately owned newspaper, "political observers" - 
likely the newspaper editors themselves - opined that Antananarivo 
residents showed they are not yet ready for development by issuing a 
"kamikaze vote" for a stranger over a candidate who has demonstrated 
concrete achievements.  It remains to be seen whether there will be 
professional repercussions against long-time Foreign Minister Marcel 
Ranjeva, who had been placed in charge of mobilizing TIM voters in 
the capital city.  In the past, Ravalomanana has exacted a 
professional price in cases where his political operatives did not 
deliver. 
 
¶4. (U) Election Day proceeded smoothly with reports of minor 
irregularities surrounding voter registration lists and voter cards. 
 At one Antananarivo polling station, 25 envelopes were found 
pre-stuffed with TIM ballots.  Although Andry Rajoelina had 
complained preceding the elections that the Government of Madagascar 
(GOM) manipulated voter lists to TIM's advantage and failed to hand 
over the voter list and number of voting stations, his camp will not 
be filing a formal complaint after his landslide win.  In their 
view, the most important issue at this point is the smooth 
transition of power. 
 
¶5. (SBU) COMMENT:  Andry Rajoelina's win in Antananarivo appears 
largely a vote of protest against the cost of living, constant power 
outages, and lack of infrastructure, all of which TIM has not been 
able to address.  Also, the TIM incumbent was a pure Ravalomanana 
creation - another "Tiko Boy" anointed by his former boss - which 
also engendered voter resentment.  In addition, the 37-year-old 
Rajoelina - who looks far younger -- mobilized a youthful voter base 
through his energetic campaign.  Finally, it may be seen as a vote 
for greater democracy in Madagascar following the monolithic victory 
of TIM in the National Assembly elections (Ref B).  Speakers on 
radio call-in programs expressed the hope this election would be a 
"lesson" to the GOM that it ought to think seriously about changing 
its priorities and allow Rajoelina to do his work as the new mayor. 
President Ravalomanana could head off opposition efforts to exploit 
his loss by working with Andry Rajoelina, who was careful to couch 
his role as "an alternative, not an opponent."  However, neither the 
president nor the GOM has yet reacted publicly to the upset.  It is 
too early to assess the country-wide impact of TIM's loss of 
Antananarivo, but this may well serve as an "alert" to the 
President.  END COMMENT. 
 
MARQUARDT