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DE RUEHAN #1236/01 3461323
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O 121323Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0772
INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 001236 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, AF/E AND AF/FO 
ALSO FOR DS/DSS/ATA - DROTHSTEIN 
PASS TO USTR FOR FLISER 
NSC FOR BPITTMAN AND BLEO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ETRD ECON EAID KDEM CN
SUBJECT: BRINGING COMOROS INTO THE FOLD 
 
Ref: A) ANTANANARIVO 815 
     B) ANTANANARIVO 1202 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: As we look at the question of AGOA eligibility for 
Comoros, the two key interlocking issues are security and 
opportunity - and how each could be strengthened by AGOA.  The 
Comoran people have a tragic history and few economic endowments; 
their most famous native son is infamous - the Al Qaeda mastermind 
of the 1998 Embassy bombings, Harun Fazul.  Fazul is a source of 
shame to most Comorans, but his desperate turn to extremism and 
violence illustrates how lack of opportunity in the Comoros can harm 
U.S. interests, including our very security. 
 
¶2. (SBU) In response to that threat, U.S. engagement in the Comoros 
is on the upswing.  Today it includes a USAID distance education 
project, CJTF-HOA soldiers and Seabees refurbishing schools, the 
recent first-ever U.S. Navy ship visit, an English language lab and 
a vibrant American Corner in Moroni, frequent visits by the 
Ambassador and mission staff - and a few more programs currently in 
gestation.  Beyond these, the Union government has requested a 
return of the Peace Corps, re-establishment of an American 
diplomatic presence in the country, and AGOA eligibility. 
 
¶3. (SBU) More than any other program, they seek AGOA for the 
opportunity it will bring over time for the people of Comoros.  AGOA 
will not have a strong immediate economic impact, but it quickly 
will show U.S. support for democratically-elected President Sambi 
and for Comoran democracy, as well as recognition of progress made 
under difficult circumstances to improve its investment climate, 
reform its economy, and create jobs and opportunity.   Over the 
longer term, it may open the doors to jobs and opportunities that 
could make the next clever young Comoran a dynamic entrepreneur, 
rather than a terrorist like Harun Fazul.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Pro-American Muslim Democracy 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Union of the Comoros is a pro-American Muslim 
democratic country vulnerable to the influence of Iran and terrorist 
organizations.  It is a country of paradoxes.  During a recent 
visit, students coming out of an Islamic studies school were eager 
to practice their English with an Embassy Officer passing by; 
indeed, our American Corner is frequented night and day, and English 
lessons there are in high demand.  In Moroni and every other Comoran 
town, young men sit idly with nothing to do.  The Union and Island 
Governments, employing no more than 6,000 people, are the largest 
employers in a nation of over 700,000 people.  Jobs are so scarce 
that janitors at ministries are replaced when a new administration 
comes in. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Recent investment interests from Dubai and Kuwait are 
betting on the stable and pro-business environment espoused by 
President Sambi, who is also one of the Comoros' few successful 
entrepreneurs.  At a recent ceremony to receive official Iranian 
largesse - a fishing vessel - President Sambi offered thanks, but 
emphasized he had no special relationship with Tehran, even adding 
that, while he had been a student in Iran, he had not - despite 
extensive overseas travels - visited again since becoming president. 
In private conversations with the Ambassador, Sambi and Minister of 
Foreign Affairs Jaffar have emphasized that they accept Iranian 
assistance, but with "no strings attached."  Proposed but as yet 
unrealized Iranian assistance to the Comoros (other than the vessel) 
include opening reciprocal Embassies, agricultural training, 
scholarships, exchanges, and business development. 
 
Harun Fazul the "Exception" 
--------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) President Sambi, like President Azali before him, willingly 
cooperates in the Rewards for Justice Program for the capture of 
Harun Fazul.  Both abhor the notion that Fazul represents the 
Comoros in any way; Comorans are proud of their reputations as 
moderate and peaceful Muslims.  In a recent conversation with the 
Ambassador, Azali reiterated his desire for close relations with the 
United States.  He also recalled expelling the popular humanitarian 
NGO el-Haramein, at U.S. Government request, because of its terror 
links.  No doubt he also recalls - but was too polite to say - that 
Comoros are still waiting for the U.S. to make good on promises made 
at that time to fill the resultant void. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Before masterminding the terrorist attacks on U.S. 
Embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, Fazul left Comoros for study 
and opportunity abroad, eventually adopting radical doctrine in 
Sudan and Pakistan.  It is uncertain if Fazul would dare visit his 
homeland, although he retains family ties there.  He is no doubt 
aware, however, that the Comoros is home to thousands of idle, 
impressionable young men who might - as he was - be won to the 
extremist cause.  Muslim elders in the Comoros often share this 
concern, and they worry about other radicals - Comoran students 
returned from Pakistan or Saudi Arabia - who preach extremist 
doctrine to a growing following.  President Azali founded a 
university in Comoros, driven, he said, by concern that sending all 
Comorans abroad for study would eventually radicalize the 
population.  Today, those who graduate face weak job prospects. 
 
Policies for Growth and Stability 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) In holding open the opportunity of real friendship with the 
United States and not (yet) embracing Iran, President Sambi has two 
objectives.  Seeing young Comorans die each year in the treacherous 
crossing to French-administered Mayotte, Sambi wants to attract 
investors and promote entrepreneurship to create opportunities for 
Comorans at home.  Even while his government grapples with the 
intransigent Colonel Bacar, Sambi's team has streamlined business 
procedures, held conferences with young graduates on possible 
business ventures, sought to reschedule its debt, and traveled 
relentlessly to court investors.  AGOA eligibility would provide an 
additional incentive to invest in the Comoros; indeed, its absence 
probably acts as a damper to many of these efforts as investment 
follows AGOA. 
 
¶9. (SBU) To advance this effort, the Union Ministry of Economy, 
Trade, Labor, and Women's Empowerment is partnering with UNDP and 
the ILO to attract investment to create jobs.  The Minister is 
working with donors for "The Creation of a Development Fund to 
Guarantee and Insure Investments, Decent Jobs, and Revenues."  The 
plan is founded on poverty reduction via economic growth.  The 
Minister builds on Resolution No. 07/002/Au of September 3, 2007, by 
the Union National Assembly, improving the investment code and 
recommending improved business procedures.  The Ministry has already 
created a "one-stop shop" for business/investor registration whose 
goal is approvals within three days. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Another AGOA eligibility criterion concerns child labor, 
which has not become a major issue in the Comoros.  It is limited to 
a fairly small number of children sent by their families to work in 
richer homes, and otherwise does not exist outside subsistence 
farming and fishing.  There are no reports of children working in 
factories, mining, or prostitution.  In any case, Union law 
prohibits children working under the age of 15.  Enforcement is 
uneven, but the overall child labor picture in Comoros is similar or 
even compares favorably to that of most AGOA-eligible countries. 
The Regional ILO Representative recently told the Ambassador that 
the ILO eventually will propose programs to address child labor in 
households, but puts a higher priority on first helping the Comoros 
implement its growth and job creation strategy. 
 
Pariah or Respectable Country? 
------------------------------ 
 
¶11. (SBU) President Sambi also wants to use his one term in office 
to do away with the Comoros' reputation as a "pariah" and establish 
the archipelago as a respectable country.  He recognizes that the 
Anjouan standoff risks undermining this effort if not resolved soon 
and peacefully.  In decrying the "false face" of Islam put forth by 
terrorists, Sambi also seeks respect and dignity for his people and 
his religion.  He readily admits he accepts Iranian gifts -- out of 
necessity.  He fears the influence of radical Islamists on young 
Comorans because he cannot offer alternatives.  Should Comoros be 
accepted for AGOA now, President Sambi will tell his people that the 
reform efforts of the Union Government - and the democratic actions 
of the people -- have been acknowledged by the United States.  He 
will seek to use this as leverage to persuade Bacar to stand aside 
and allow economic progress at last to take root for the benefit of 
all Comorans. 
 
¶12. (SBU) COMMENT.  From our perspective, a determination of AGOA 
eligibility for Comoros would help the democratically-elected Union 
government bring opportunity and security to the Comoros - making it 
less likely to be the home of future Harun Fazuls.  Conversely, 
continuing to deny AGOA will make it harder for the country to 
attract investment, which could threaten its fragile democracy and 
reverse course back toward its tragic history.  Objectively, we 
think the Comoros compares well to most countries already in AGOA 
with respect to the eligibility criteria; indeed, there is even a 
reasonable case to be made for an MCC threshold compact for the 
Comoros.  This decision takes place in the context of deepening 
American engagement with the Comoros.  In every other area, despite 
difficult resource constraints, we are looking to offer carrots to 
the Union government.  AGOA is that rare carrot that can enhance 
opportunity and security without major resource implications.  If we 
are serious about helping the Comoros move forward, we should offer 
this carrot now. 
 
MARQUARDT