VZCZCXRO7793
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #1231 3441324
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 101324Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0766
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 001231 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND INR/B 
PARIS FOR D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR MUNICIPAL ELECTION CAMPAIGNS UNDERWAY 
 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY:  Campaign season for Madagascar's December 12 
municipal elections is well underway, with the ruling TIM party 
dominating throughout most of the country.  As usual, the Government 
of Madagascar (GOM) is mobilizing at the highest levels to pitch in 
with the campaigns; ministers are serving as "coaches" to TIM 
candidates throughout the country.  The campaign is unexpectedly 
heating up in the capital city of Antananarivo, with only two of the 
six candidates, TIM's Hery Rafalimanana and youthful businessman 
Andry Rajoelina, considered serious contenders.  Political observers 
are watching this face-off closely, as past mayors have gone on to 
occupy high-level government positions including the presidency. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
THE RACE IN ANTANANARIVO HEATS UP 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2. (U) Political observers are watching the campaign in the capital 
city of Antananarivo closely.  Past mayors have gone on to occupy 
high-level government positions, most notably current President Marc 
Ravalomanana.  The campaign is unexpectedly heating up, with only 
two of the six candidates, Hery Rafalimanana and Andry Rajoelina, 
considered serious contenders.  After serving eight months as 
"acting" mayor, Hery Rafalimanana is President Ravalomanana's Tiako 
I Madagasikara (TIM) party candidate.    His campaign message 
--"Look at what I have done in Antananarivo in only eight months" -- 
refers to Antananarivo's recent "facelift," largely funded in 
preparation for the Indian Ocean Games in August.  A TIM member and 
"TIKO boy" (a former director in President Ravalomanana's TIKO 
conglomerate), he was a relative unknown until taking up his 
position as "acting mayor" in early 2007. 
 
¶3.  Rafalimanana's main opponent is Andry Rajoelina, an independent, 
who has surprised political observers by winning significant support 
among constituents under 30.  An independently wealthy young man 
from a rich family, Rajoelina is the Director General of INJET, a 
communication company that owns most of the billboards in 
Antananarivo, and the owner of private radio and television stations 
called "VIVA."  His youthful appearance and endless energy have 
earned him the nickname "Andry TGV," alluding to the fact he moves 
as quickly as French high-speed train.  While this endears him to 
younger voters, some older constituents consider him too "boyish" 
for serious business.  Although he has presented no clear platform, 
his campaign message is, "My success in the business world speaks 
for itself, and I can make Antananarivo successful too."  Post notes 
Rajoelina is strangely reminiscent of President Ravalomanana when he 
first entered the political scene in the late 1990s as a surprise 
candidate: a young, successful and dynamic businessman.  At this 
point, Rafalimanana appears to have the upper hand, but those 
disillusioned with the current administration consider Rajoelina a 
strong alternative. 
 
¶4. (U) The remaining four candidates in Antananarivo, relative 
unknowns not allied with any formal political party, have very 
little hope to win significant votes.  Marc Ramiarinjatovo's 
campaign apparel displays his picture with both U.S. and European 
Union flags in the background.  Jonah Andrianaivo Andrianasolo's 
campaign slogan evokes tribal leanings: "Antananarivo for the Merina 
[tribe]."  Nasolo Valiavo, who writes his own op-ed column, and 
Malala Savaron, the sole female candidate, have both stayed largely 
silent. 
 
THREE ELECTIONS POSTPONED 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶5. (U) Elections in Nosy Be, Ile Sainte Marie, and Fort Dauphin have 
been postponed to an unspecified date in order to allow the local 
governments to coordinate and complete important development 
projects.  Some opposition members claim the postponements are 
motivated by political reasons.  Still, mayoral candidates in all 
other elections going forward will be given equal free airtime on 
national television and radio, approximately 36 seconds per 
candidate per day. 
 
¶6. COMMENT:  The face-off in Antananarivo is of most interest in 
this election.  The Department-funded National Democratic Institute 
program in Madagascar will organize a live debate on national 
television December 10 between Antananarivo contenders Hery 
Rafalimanana, Andry Rajoelina and Marc Ramiarinjatovo.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
MARQUARDT