Keep Us Strong WikiLeaks logo

Currently released so far... 64621 / 251,287

Articles

Brazil Sri Lanka United Kingdom Sweden 00. Editorial United States Latin America Egypt Jordan Yemen Thailand

Browse latest releases

2010/11 2010/12 2011/01 2011/02 2011/03 2011/04 2011/05 2011/06 2011/07 2011/08

Browse by creation date

66 72 73 75 79 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z

Browse by classification

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Community resources

Follow us on Twitter Check our Reddit Twitter this Digg this page Contact us on IRC

courage is contagious

Viewing cable 07ANKARA2895, Rising Inflation Challenges the Central Bank

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs

Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
  • The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
  • The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
  • The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.

Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #07ANKARA2895.
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07ANKARA2895 2007-12-05 05:58 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Ankara 
VZCZCXRO3819
RR RUEHDA
DE RUEHAK #2895 3390558
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 050558Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4547
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 3594
RUEHDA/AMCONSUL ADANA 2501
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
 
UNCLAS ANKARA 002895 
 
SIPDIS 
 
TREASURY FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS - JROSE 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
REF: ANKARA 685 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN TU
SUBJECT: Rising Inflation Challenges the Central Bank 
 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary: Turkey's headline consumer inflation was 1.95 
percent in November, considerably higher than the 1.58 percent 
consensus estimate, and this result surpassed even the most 
pessimistic economic forecasts.  Core indicators were not 
encouraging and non-food inflation picked up sharply.  Oil price 
increases hit hard in Turkey, which imports an annual average of $30 
billion.  The Central Bank (CBRT) inflation target is four percent 
and year-on-year November inflation was 8.40 percent.  If the CBRT 
yields to political pressure to cut rates at the December 13 
Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, inflation could continue to 
spike and the CBRT's credibility could be questioned.  End summary. 
2. (U) Turkey's November consumer price index (CPI) increased 1.95 
percent; while the producer price index (PPI) increased 0.89 
percent.  Year-on-year November inflation reached 8.40 percent for 
CPI and 5.65 percent for PPI.  Year-to-date inflation was 8.15 
percent for CPI and 5.78 percent for PPI.  The GOT's CPI target for 
2007 is four percent. 
3. (U) Overall inflation news was negative, however, in a December 4 
statement the CBRT claimed the medium-term inflation outlook was 
still on track despite short-term variations. 
 
4. (SBU) Comment:  According to market participants and the CBRT, 
the main short-term inflation risk is the government's upcoming 
decision regarding electricity and natural gas prices.  Despite 
inflation pressures, many investment banks believe the MPC might 
continue to cut the main policy rate by 25-50 basis points on 
December 13.  The Bank's short-term lending rate is now 16.66 
percent.  CBRT has been receiving pressure from politicians since 
the beginning of the year to cut rates to stimulate economic growth. 
 CBRT should balance these concerns against inflation pressures and 
take into account global economic conditions before making its rate 
decision.  End Comment. 
Wilson