VZCZCXYZ0003
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #2663/01 3651131
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 311131Z DEC 07
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7700
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7601
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 8872

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 002663 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS, PAKISTAN 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused 
December 29-31 news coverage on KMT presidential candidate Ma 
Ying-jeou, who was cleared of corruption charges by the Taiwan High 
Court last Friday, thus ensuring his candidacy in the March 
presidential race.  Coverage also centered on the KMT's decision to 
accept the Central Election Commission's (CEC) compromise version of 
the "one-step" voting system, putting an end to the 
several-month-long voting-format controversy for the January 
legislative. 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an analysis in the 
pro-independence "Liberty Times" said the result of Taiwan's 
proposed UN referendum will affect the relationship among the United 
States, China and Taiwan.  An op-ed in the mass-circulation "Apple 
Daily" said U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's recent 
criticism of Taiwan's proposed UN referendum will not achieve 
Washington's goals because President Chen Shui-bian will manipulate 
the criticism to obtain more voters' support for him.  An editorial 
in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times," expressed 
concerns about Pakistan's stability after the country's former Prime 
Minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated in a suicide attack.  End 
summary. 
 
¶3. U.S.-Taiwan Relations 
 
A) "UN Referendum Will Have Repercussions on 
Washington-Beijing-Taipei Ties" 
 
Journalist Su Yung-yao noted in an analysis in the pro-independence 
"Liberty Times" [circulation: 720,000] (12/29): 
 
"The UN referendum will be held in tandem with [Taiwan's] 
presidential election in March 2008, and given the common opposition 
shared by international forces such as the United States and China 
[to the referendum], the results of the popular vote will surely 
become the focus of attention both within and outside Taiwan.  In 
particular, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has deemed the 
UN referendum 'provocative.'  As a result, interactions among 
Washington, Beijing and Taipei in the wake of the referendum will 
have repercussions on the cross-Strait situation. ... 
 
"Unlike Taiwan's previous referendum, which was initiated from top 
to bottom by President Chen, the Green camp's referendum on 
'Taiwan's bid to join the UN under the name Taiwan' this time came 
from the bottom up.  Opinion surveys showed that supporters for this 
referendum cover both the Blue and Green camps, so it is highly 
likely that the UN referendum will become the first popular vote to 
be passed in Taiwan. ...  The United States has expressed opposition 
to Taiwan's plans to hold presidential elections in tandem with 
referenda in both 2004 and 2008.  The [U.S.] moves were obviously 
aimed at accommodating China's Taiwan policy in an attempt to avoid 
exacerbating the conflict in the already contentious relationship 
between Washington and Beijing relations.  In the meantime, 
[Washington] is also concerned that Taiwan's new president will 
continue to upgrade the level of referenda and challenge 
Washington's one China principle. ..." 
 
B) "Bian Has Gambled the Rest of His Life on the UN Referendum" 
 
Professor Emerson Chang, the director of Nan Hua University's 
Department of International Studies, opined in the mass-circulation 
"Apple Daily" [circulation: 500,000] (12/29): 
 
"U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has set the tone for 
Taiwan's UN referendum and called it a provocative policy.  The move 
has triggered different interpretations from both the ruling and 
opposition parties.  One side believes that [Rice's statement] was a 
warning to the Taiwan government and its people because Washington 
is worried that Beijing might use force against Taiwan.  The other 
side, however, believes that it was simply a feigning movement by 
the United States to placate Beijing.  Even though these two 
interpretations may seem poles apart, they are not that 
inconsistent; Rice's intents may have been manifold.  This article 
maintains that Rice's remarks will not only fail to reduce the 
probability of the referendum passing but may have exactly the 
opposite effect. ... 
 
"In the wake of the cease of function of the National Unification 
Council, Bian's deeds have proved that Beijing's strategy of 
'restraining Taiwan via the United States' has failed.  Given such 
circumstances, it was originally expected that [Chinese President] 
Hu Jintao would make harsh comments about Taiwan during his work 
report at the 17th National Party Congress of the Chinese Communist 
Party.  But to everyone's surprise, Hu did not do so.  Bian thus 
could not [use China's criticism] to play the role of a martyr.  As 
a result, he could only take advantage of Washington's 
discouragement of Taiwan [against the UN referendum], alleging that 
the pressure behind the scenes actually came from Beijing, so as to 
create the image of him being under repression and suffering.  The 
 
 
 
higher the level of U.S. criticisms get, the better it can highlight 
mounting pressure from Beijing, and the fatter the chances are for 
Bian to succeed in playing the role of a martyr. ..." 
 
¶4. Pakistan 
 
"Volatile Pakistan Devours Bhutto" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (12/29): 
 
"... Washington in particular will be dismayed by the stark fact 
that Bhutto's assassination was perfectly avoidable. 
 
"The bigger question that must be asked now is how this 
nuclear-armed country can forge some kind of consensus among its 
non-militant political and religious groups on restoring confidence 
in the government and the political system, the volatility of which, 
even under the most optimistic conditions, will unnerve the 
international community for years to come. ..." 
 
YOUNG