VZCZCXYZ0012
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #2614/01 3480826
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 140826Z DEC 07
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7604
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7540
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 8817

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 002614 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.- CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS 
 
Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused news 
coverage December 14 on the death threats President Chen Shui-bian 
has received recently; on the National Communications Commission's 
plan to regulate spam emails in Taiwan; on the plunge of Taiwan's 
stock price index Thursday; and on the 2008 elections.  In terms of 
editorials and commentaries, an editorial in the pro-independence 
"Liberty Times" said the United States' constant moves to oppose 
Taiwan's UN referendum were the results of Washington's affirmation 
of China's rise and its influence.  Washington believes that it will 
endanger regional peace and stability if it fails to establish a 
strategic partnership with China, the article said.  An analysis in 
the pro-unification "United Evening News" alleged that AIT Chairman 
Raymond Burghardt's visit to Taiwan this time was aimed at demanding 
that President Chen "peacefully transfer" his presidential powers in 
¶2008. 
A "Black and White Column" commentary in the pro-unification "United 
Daily News" said Burghardt's recent visit to Taiwan shows that the 
US is taking preventive measures as Chen Shui-bian's hidden 
intentions were being exposed.  An op-ed article by a prominent 
Taiwan professor of political science in the same newspaper 
commented that the US is now the decision-maker of the Taiwan 
unification-or-independence issue. 
End summary. 
 
A) "A 'Chinese War' Is Going on" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 720,000] 
editorialized (12/14): 
 
"... [Ever] since Taiwan proposed to hold a UN referendum, the 
United States has been constantly imposing pressure on the island by 
having relevant officials openly deliver statements or come to 
Taiwan and talk to the ruling and opposition political figures. 
Even with constant U.S. moves and the increasing intensity of its 
opposition, the United States still failed to alter the process of 
the UN referendum.  But such moves highlighted that the United 
States tends to tilt toward China, a trend that implies a concealed 
concern that cross-Strait situation might get out of control. ... 
 
"... But we have discovered that the reason why Washington has 
constantly imposed pressure on Taiwan [over the UN referendum] was 
because it wants to show it to Beijing.  What is curious is, since 
opposition to the UN referendum is a violation of the democratic 
spirit and international practice, why did the United States choose 
to sabotage its own image just to placate China?  The key lies in 
the fact that the United States seems to have affirmed China's rise 
and its influence, believing that regional peace and stability will 
be endangered should [the United States] fail to establish a 
strategic partnership with China.  Therefore, under China's 
pressure, [Washington felt that] it must 'do something' about the UN 
referendum so as to resolve China's doubts and insecurity. ..." 
 
B) "Peaceful Change of Leadership?  The United States Might Not Be 
Able to Sleep Well at Night" 
 
Journalist Chen Chih-ping noted in the "Cold Eyes" column in the 
pro-unification "United Evening News" [circulation: 100,000] 
(12/11): 
 
"In the wake of a series of fruitless remarks and communications 
with Taiwan, AIT Chairman Raymond Burghardt came to Taiwan 
personally to communicate with Bian and Frank Hsieh.  Based on the 
messages revealed from various parties after [Burghardt's] talks 
[with different individuals], the most important message that the 
United States wanted to deliver this time was to demand that Chen 
Shui-bian 'peacefully transfer' his presidential powers next year, 
regardless of whether it is Ma Ying-jeou or Frank Hsieh who is 
elected president March 22, 2008. ... 
 
"To conclude on Burghardt's trip this time, the demand that Chen 
'peacefully transfer' his presidential power should be viewed as its 
principal axis, whereas its various aspects include:  First, 
[Washington wants] to ensure that the Bian administration will not 
go to extremes.  Burghardt therefore revealed that [the United 
States] has expressed hopes to China that the latter should resume 
dialogue with Taiwan's new leader.  The move was aimed at taking 
away any possibility that Chen might use China's tough position as 
an excuse to initiate radical action. 
 
"Second, [Washington wants] to ensure that the presidential election 
slated for March 22, 2008 will be held as planned.  The United 
States thus expressed concerns about President Chen's recent 
comments on the martial law.  The American Institute in Taiwan is 
also reportedly closely watching the Bian administration's recent 
ban on a former national security official to publish his books and 
is prudently interpreting whether the Bian administration is 
regressing in terms of democracy. 
 
"Third, [Washington wants] to make sure that its inability to manage 
the Bian administration will no longer exist in the wake of next 
year's presidential election, so as to secure a new situation for 
Washington-Beijing-Taipei ties. 
 
"Fourth, [Washington wants] to make sure that the leadership can be 
peacefully transferred on May 20, regardless of whether it is 
transferred to Ma or Hsieh.  Burghardt also emphasized that the 
United States' cross-Strait policy is based on the United States' 
interests.  Washington has obviously noted attempts by the Bian 
administration to manipulate the anti-U.S. populist line by accusing 
Washington and Beijing of working jointly to suppress Taiwan. ..." 
 
 
C) "Hidden Intentions Exposed" 
 
The "Black and White Column" of the pro-unification "United Daily 
News" commented [circulation: 400,000] (12/13): 
 
"... From this context, one can tell from the very solemn and 
negative reactions by Thomas Christensen and Raymond Burghardt to 
Bian's threatening words of 'considering martial law' that the 
series of words and deeds of [Chen Shui-] Bian, which violate the 
democratic and constitutional principles, as well as Minister of 
National Defense Lee Tien-yu's saying he would obey Bian's martial 
law order even if the parliament does not approve it, indeed alerted 
the US side that this is a serious matter.  Any slightly indiscreet 
responses may well destroy Taiwan's democracy all at once. 
 
"The US side has deeply experienced Bian's unpredictability.  He 
once claimed that, if the Blue Camp wins the election, there would 
not be 'a transfer of power to another political party' but 'a 
transfer of sovereignty.'  As seen by the Americans who advocate 
democratic elections, this means Bian is very likely to refuse a 
peaceful transfer of power.  The hidden intentions [of Bian] have 
been exposed.  The US side will certainly make preparatory 
arrangements in order to prevent anti-democratic fascist rule from 
appearing under Bian's manipulation.  Or else, the US will be 
ashamed to face the people of Taiwan!" 
 
D) "The Americans Interfere with Internal Affairs.  Ma and Hsieh 
Bowing and Bending" 
 
Professor Chih-yu Shih, Department of Political Science, National 
Taiwan University, wrote in an op-ed in the pro-unification "United 
Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (12/13): 
 
"Washington's sending AIT Chairman Raymond Burghardt as an envoy to 
Taiwan has brought a whirlwind.  The main purpose was to criticize 
the referendum, saying it is a unilateral change in the status quo, 
violates the Four Noes pledge and binds the hands and feet of the 
new government [to be inaugurated] in 2008.  Faced with such rude 
intervention, Taiwan's ruling and opposition parties, which always 
believe Taiwan to be an independent nation, do not seem to feel 
Taiwan's independence being violated. 
 
"... Just seeing the over cautiousness of the people of Taiwan 
toward Burghardt, one will know that the rhetoric that Taiwan or the 
Republic of China is an independent nation is self-deception.  In 
their heart of hearts, the people of Taiwan see the US as their 
master. 
 
"Without any dissatisfaction, Beijing applauded Burghardt's open 
interference in Taiwan politics.  Beijing's leadership may as well 
argue that the warning against Taiwan independence made by Burghardt 
during this visit was a result of [China's] pressure.  This means 
that Washington takes Beijing seriously.  Therefore, even though, 
theoretically, the US's interfering with Taiwan should be seen as 
interfering with China's internal affairs and [therefore] 
intolerable, it is tolerated for the time being.  The fact is that, 
if Beijing does not interpret Burghardt's open interference this way 
and gives itself an out, Beijing would be in trouble justifying its 
position should the US intervene on its own when confrontation 
arises across the Strait. 
 
"... From the long-term perspective, even if Chen Shui-bian's 
reaction to Burghardt's criticism may be described as obstinate and 
unruly, it can be explained that any changes in the future will have 
nothing to do with him.  As for Ma Ying-jeou and Frank Hsieh's 
bowing and bending, they have acted as if the US were their father. 
If the US succeeded in gaining control over these two candidates for 
the presidency this time, does it mean that Taiwan is being pushed 
and tied more toward the US?  Since the long-term trend is obvious, 
Taiwan independence advocacy naturally receive indirect 
encouragement.  The referendum issue, as a result, will only evolve 
toward more confrontation. 
 
"This trip by Burghardt appears commanding.  All parts of Taiwan 
were careful and cautious.  But Beijing is becoming marginalized. 
The habit that the leaders of both sides across the Strait have 
developed of taking their cues from the United States is too 
deep-rooted to be changed.  The situation now is that unification 
depends on the US and independence also depends on the US.  Both 
sides across the Strait have high talk of nationalism.  However, 
thus far there has been no confrontation, because the master has not 
told them to start fighting." 
 
YOUNG