VZCZCXRO4809
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #3586/01 3521353
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 181353Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8905
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHINGTON DC 0079

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 003586 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E, DRL FOR SJOSEPH, AND INR/B 
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
CJTF-HOA AND CENTCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV EAID PHUM SENV EAGR ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: EMBASSY COORDINATED MEETING ON UPDATE OF 
OGADEN SITUATION 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00003586  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On December 14, the Ambassador hosted the 
fifth in a series of meetings of NGOs, UN agencies and donor 
countries, with the purpose of discussing and sharing 
information on the Ogaden.  The general consensus was that 
access to the region by NGO groups has improved and that 
considerable food aid has moved to major towns and is 
beginning to reach distribution points in secondary centers. 
Additionally, food prices have stabilized and returning to 
pre-crisis levels, though food remains scarce in rural areas. 
 Participants agreed that interaction with the Ethiopia 
leadership and intervention by the international community 
(led by the U.S.) has sped humanitarian food deliveries to 
primary distribution points.  However, participants all 
agreed that famine-like conditions with potentially high 
child mortality rates from malnutrition and disease 
(specifically measles) are still highly likely and that more 
food is urgently needed, especially to secondary distribution 
points in rural areas. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Natural calamities including floods in the north, 
poor rains and drought in the south, and an invasion of 
desert locusts, is exacerbating the region's hardships.  The 
group recognized that Somalia and the Ogaden are interlinked 
with ONLF and extremists using Somalia as a base for 
incursions into Ethiopia.  Somaliland truckers report refusal 
to drive into rural areas due to landmines and 
insurgency/counterinsurgency operations. Post is working to 
develop new approaches to alleviate anticipated worsening of 
the situation in the region.  A forthcoming USAID assessment 
team to the Ogaden is welcome and the U.S. continues to be 
the lead country with assistance now in excess of USD 43 
million.  END SUMMARY. 
 
----------------------------- 
U.S.-led intervention helpful 
----------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The Ambassador hosted the fifth in a series of 
meetings on the Ogaden with NGOs, UN agencies and donor 
countries.  The purpose of the meetings is to verify facts, 
coordinate efforts and develop approaches to improve 
conditions in the Somali region of Ethiopia.  The group 
stated that access for NGOs and UN groups have improved to 
major urban areas, though significant restrictions remain on 
access to rural areas.  WFP noted that food is being 
distributed to major towns along the main roads with 14,272 
metric tons already dispatched into the Somali region.  Food 
prices in the major towns have stabilized and are approaching 
pre-crisis levels, though rice prices remain high.  U.S.-led 
efforts have resulted in greater response by the GOE to 
concerns raised by the international community. 
 
------------------------------------ 
Potential Worsening Conditions Ahead 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) The general consensus of the group, however, was 
that famine-like conditions with potentially high child 
mortality rates from malnutrition and disease (specifically 
measles) are still highly likely.  The NGOs and USAID, in 
particular, raised concerns that food needs to reach 
secondary distribution points in rural areas very soon. The 
GoE-operated DPPA, which handles food distribution, also 
remarked to the U.S. and other groups, that more food is 
critically needed for secondary distribution points in the 
more remote rural areas and that more trucks are needed to 
deliver the food.  WFP reports that 14,272 metric tons of 
food is insufficient and that 52,000 metric tons of food is 
needed now to meet the needs of 600,000 to 700,000 people out 
of the 4.2 million people in the Somali region of Ethiopia, 
and 1.2 million people living in the conflict zones. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The UN agencies raised the necessity to monitor the 
distribution of food to ensure it is getting to the right 
people.  NGOs continue to report bureaucratic delays in 
deploying to the region.  While access has improved, there 
are still reports of trucks being delayed by the Ethiopian 
military due to lack of military escorts for the trucks 
entering the area and other bureaucratic delays.  WFP and 
USAID reported that 60 trucks have waited for 20 days for 
military escorts.  Such delays, the group stated, will mean 
that sufficient food will not get to the people most in need 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00003586  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
in a timely manner. 
 
¶6. (SBU) USAID and the UN agencies raised concerns that 
severe malnutrition rates are likely increasing and child 
mortality rates are likely increasing as well.  No specific 
numbers or rates are available, primarily due to the lack of 
assessment of the needs and limited access to the region.  A 
concern was that measles and other diseases could increase 
child mortality rates due to the apparent increasing rates of 
malnutrition among children. 
 
------------------------------ 
Climatic Changes Add to Misery 
------------------------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) Compounding the poor prognosis for the region is 
climatic changes.  USAID reported on locust problems in Fik, 
with reports of flooding in parts of the north and drought 
conditions in the south. (NOTE: During the visit of the USAID 
Administrator to Godeh in the Ogaden last month, local 
officials reported that in "normal" pre-conflict conditions, 
about 100 children would be suffering from malnutrition and 
require therapeutic feeding.  The rates for just the Godeh 
area were now at 300. END NOTE.) 
 
------------------------------------- 
Somalia and the Ogaden Interconnected 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) The group recognized that Somalia and the Ogaden are 
interconnected.  So long as Ethiopian troops are in Somalia, 
the potential for increased anti-Ethiopian sentiment.  NGOs 
and the U.S. side raised the point that the ONLF operates out 
of Somalia in conducting operations in Ethiopia, and 
extremist elements are also entering Ethiopia from Somalia. 
WFP and other NGOs reported that Somaliland truckers refuse 
to drive into the rural areas of the Ogaden for fear of 
landmines and insurgency/counterinsurgency operations. 
Truckers have raised prices significantly to deliver food, 
according to the NGOs.  In addition, UN agencies raised fears 
that they cannot send their people to parts of the rural 
areas because of insecurity, landmines and rebel activities. 
 
---------------------- 
U.S.-led interventions 
---------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) The U.S. raised briefly the visits of USAID 
Administrator Henrietta Fore to Godeh and the Secretary's 
recent visit.  The group also discussed the visit of UN under 
secretary Sir John Holmes, and the EU Ambassadors reviewed 
 
SIPDIS 
their EU troika visit to Jijiga and meeting with Prime 
Minister Meles.  The Ambassadors' group also raised their 
meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Adissu and with the DPPA 
chief.  The message was consistent--while access has 
improved, the situation can potentially worsen if food in 
larger volumes are not delivered to the region, specifically 
to secondary rural distribution points.  While the Prime 
Minister and Deputy Prime Minister reportedly pushed back on 
the degree of severity of the problems in the Ogaden, the 
group felt that conditions, if not alleviated soon, will 
potentially lead to and emergency humanitarian situation. 
 
------------------------ 
Other Comments/Way Ahead 
------------------------ 
 
¶10. (SBU)  Despite continued reports, the group raised the 
lack of specific evidence of cantonment camps by the 
Ethiopian military or of systematic burning of villages. 
 
¶11. (SBU) The group designated the U.S. to come up with new 
approaches to share with the group in the next U.S. 
Embassy-hosted meeting on what further actions are needed in 
working with the GOE to alleviate potentially worsening 
conditions in the Ogaden.  Further, concerns were raised that 
the perception gap between the GOE and the NGOs/donor group 
could create friction and undercut efforts to meet the 
problems in the Ogaden. 
 
¶12. (SBU) The U.S. side underscored the need for a consistent 
messages delivered by all participants, as well as for the 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00003586  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
donor nations to secure more assistance.  The U.S. is leading 
the way with USD 18.7 million donated last August and another 
USD 25 million in food aid delivered since August.  Further, 
USAID will send a small assessment team that will help 
determine the needs and extent of problems in the Ogaden. 
The U.S. side stressed that the messages continue to be: 
need to get large quantities of food to rural areas, lift 
restrictions on commercial food and livestock trade, work 
with WFP and UN agencies on monitoring the region and food 
distribution, working with WFP on areas where escorts are not 
necessary and those insecure areas to speed up military 
escorts. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
COMMENT: U.S. EFFORTS SHOWING RESULTS, MUCH STILL TO DO 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) The December 14 meeting proved frustrating.  While 
efforts led by the U.S. have resulted in positive forward 
movement in opening access for NGOs and UN food distribution 
to major towns, reports from the NGO community in particular 
indicate that the situation is still very volatile.  If food 
does not reach the rural areas quickly and in significant 
amounts, child mortality rates and famine-like conditions 
will increase.  Post will continue to lead efforts among the 
NGO-UN-Donor group to develop new approaches with the GoE to 
address these concerns.  The U.S. will also continue to be 
the lead element in working with the GOE on alleviating the 
situation because of the special access the U.S. has with 
senior GOE officials.  Further, the USAID assessment team 
will be an important support mechanism to assess needs and 
strongly supported by the group to verify the degree and 
extent of problems in the Ogaden. END COMMENT. 
YAMAMOTO