VZCZCXRO4859
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #3584/01 3521344
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 181344Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8900
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHINGTON DC 0076

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 003584 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR A/S AF FRAZER, DAS AF JSWAN, 
AF/E, AF/PDPA, OES, A/S PRM SAUERBREY, PRM USDA/FAS FOR U/S 
PENN, MCHAMBLISS, RTILSWORTH, AND LPANASUK 
NAIROBI FOR RFFPO, REDSO/ESA 
USAID/W FOR A/AID 
DCHA/AA WGARVELINK, LROGERS 
AFR/EA KNELSON 
DCHA/FFP JDWORKEN, SANTHONY, PBERTOLIN, SMOORE, JLEE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV EAID PHUM SENV EAGR ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: USAID OFDA REPORT - UPDATE OF OGADEN 
SITUATION 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00003584  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: This USAID OFDA report corresponds to a 
meeting hosted by the Ambassador on December 14 (septel), the 
fifth in a series of meetings of NGOs, UN agencies and donor 
countries, with the purpose of discussing and sharing 
information on the Ogaden.  The general consensus at this 
meeting--and among USAID's NGO and other contacts--is that 
access to the region by NGO groups has improved and that 
interaction with the Ethiopian leadership and intervention by 
the international community (with the U.S. as the lead) has 
resulted in humanitarian food deliveries to primary 
distribution points.  However, all NGO and other contacts 
agree that the degree to which the GoE has opened up is 
insufficient and that it is now a "race against time" to 
prevent famine-like conditions with potentially high child 
mortality rates from malnutrition and disease (specifically 
measles).  Recent progress--largely in response to pressure 
from the U.S. and international community--has alleviated 
conditions in major towns, but the precarious humanitarian 
situation in the Ogaden districts of Somali region likely 
continues unabated in more rural areas that cannot be 
accessed for monitoring.  Through floods in the north, poor 
rains and drought in the south, and an invasion of desert 
locusts, nature is now exacerbating the largely man-made 
crisis. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Considerable food aid has moved to major towns and 
is beginning to reach distribution points in secondary 
centers, although the amount of food confirmed distributed 
remains insufficient.  Capacity and access for health and 
malnutrition interventions is still very limited.  UN and NGO 
access is gradually improving, but large areas still remain 
inaccessible and untouched.  Faster movement on access is 
essential to minimize the scale of the impending famine. 
Needs far outweigh the funding committed to-date, with 
specific technical assistance also needed. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The security situation remains tense and, according 
to NGOs, foreigners are suspect and watched very closely, 
along with any locals caught speaking to them. Insurgent 
operations by the ONLF and incursions from Somalia add to the 
instability and insecurity, causing truckers and NGO groups 
to avoid many rural areas.  Post is taking the lead in 
developing alternative approaches for the international 
community to undertake in an effort to alleviate the 
worsening situation.  In this context, post welcomes the 
deployment of a modest sized assessment team.  Due to 
security, access, logistical, programming and political 
considerations, the size and scope of the team should be 
appropriate, and include only the following: two health and 
nutrition specialists, information officer, food logistics 
officer, and team leader. END SUMMARY. 
 
-------------------- 
UPDATE ON CONDITIONS 
-------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Food Aid: Food deliveries are moving at an 
increasing rate.  To-date, WFP reports that 14,272 metric 
tons have been dispatched into the Somali region out of a 
current requirement of 52,000 metric tons.  Though this food 
has left the warehouse, distribution to beneficiaries has 
been inadequate.  For example, the UN and WFP report that 
about 60 trucks containing an unconfirmed amount of the food 
aid (but estimated at up to 600 MT), are still delayed at 
Kebribeyah, not far outside of Jijiga.  These trucks have 
waited for military escort for some 20 days.  Recently, 
approximately 40 other trucks that had been waiting were able 
to leave Kebribeyah with escort.  Some distribution to 
beneficiaries is underway, although confirmed levels are 
still low.   The lack of available trucks and exorbitant high 
prices of trucks available are slowing distribution. 
According to a UNOCHA report, payment for unloading of trucks 
has not been arranged, so food aid is being used to pay these 
costs. For example, the report notes that out of 812 metric 
tons of food recently delivered to Gashamo, 54 metric tons 
was used to pay for transport and porters.  NGOs reported 
that the role of the military and political preferences in 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00003584  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
selecting beneficiaries remains a high concern, with very 
little information on recipients and limited access for 
monitoring by WFP in remote areas.  WFP has been able to set 
up quickly in Kebri Dehar and Degehabur, but access is an 
issue to many distribution sites and only scattered 
monitoring reports have yet been received.  (NOTE: Post 
believes that a USAID food logistics officer to assist and 
monitor food distribution is needed. END NOTE.) 
 
¶5. (SBU) Commercial Trade: In light of significantly 
increased commercial access along major roads, food prices 
have returned to normal (or near normal) in the major towns 
of the Ogaden area.  However, NGOs caution that food outside 
the towns is scarce.  Movement of food outside of these major 
towns remains a concern, with persistent reports that the 
local population or traders are not allowed to move food to 
many parts of the rural areas.  Reports from NGOs from more 
remote centers, such as Denan and East Imi indicate that no 
food is available on the local market, no food aid has been 
received, and malnutrition levels in both children and adults 
is rising.  (NOTE: During the visit of USAID administrator 
Fore to Godeh, local officials reported that during normal 
conditions about 100 children suffer from severe malnutrition 
in the Godeh area requiring therapeutic feeding.  However, as 
a result of the counterinsurgency operation, the level of 
therapeutic feeding for children has risen to 300.  END 
NOTE.) UN and NGOs still report restrictions by the ENDF in 
order to keep food out of the hands of the Ogaden National 
Liberation Front (ONLF) in almost all rural areas, which also 
directly affects non-combatants facing severe food shortage. 
Livestock trade has improved in some, but not all towns.  The 
UN and NGOs note that the Muslim Arapha festival is 
increasing local demand for sheep and goats, which has 
provided some demand and increase in prices.  Demand and 
prices for camels remain at levels far below the pre-crisis 
period, as truck access to export markets across the border 
has not resumed. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Health and Nutrition: Elders at the Somali 
pastoralist gathering in Addis Ababa on December 1 reported 
varying conditions for malnutrition in the Ogaden.  The 
Korahe and Degehabur elders did not report visible signs of 
malnutrition, but elders from Fik zone reported significant 
numbers dying from hunger, though there is as yet no evidence 
to substantiate how many are dying.  A follow up to the 
nutrition survey by Save the Children UK in Fik in early 
October, which showed emergency levels of malnutrition, has 
not yet taken place.  The UN reported that the GoE is now 
proceeding with the UN on a rapid assessment in the Fik area, 
using a different methodology (not the officially accepted 
methodology of the GoE).  Save the Children UK is not 
included in the survey, and Save the Children US has been 
told that they will not be allowed to participate in the 
rapid survey in Denan area of Fik zone.  According to UNICEF, 
mobile health clinics from UNICEF have not yet been allowed 
to go to rural areas, and as a result of the lack of capacity 
and underdevelopment, the state health system is almost 
non-existent.  USAID Addis has reported that where child 
malnutrition is already high, mortality can be expected to 
increase as the livestock milk dries up during the dry 
season.  USAID Addis believes that this also increases 
vulnerability to predatory diseases such as measles and 
meningitis and to "Acute Watery Diarrhea," which has been 
already causing deaths for several months.  (NOTE: Post 
believes that two USAID/CDC health and nutrition officers are 
needed to assist and monitor the situation. END NOTE.) 
 
¶7. (SBU) Agriculture/Livestock: USAID Addis and NGOs have 
reported that the Deyr rains from September to November were 
below normal in most of the Ogaden area.  In the 
agropastoralist areas, very little planting took place and 
virtually no harvest is expected even in the riverine areas 
(which were earlier affected by floods from highland rains). 
In the purely pastoralist areas, the available fodder is very 
low in the central Fik zone area, improving further east. 
USAID Addis noted to the donor community that pastures will 
be further eroded by recent locust infestations in the Korahe 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00003584  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
and Gode areas, which are the worst reported in the area for 
many years.  The Deyr rains ended in mid-November in most 
areas, two to three weeks early, which will extend the long 
"Jilaal," or dry season.  Rainfall is not expected in the 
area until late March or April.  According to a UNOCHA 
report, although there are no reports of body condition of 
animals deteriorating yet, there are large areas which are 
still not accessible to surveys.  There are numerous reports 
of male herders moving to new pastures with their large 
stock, leaving the women and children in villages or towns. 
Overall, the picture is one of deteriorating conditions over 
the coming months. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Security: The security situation remains tense, 
including in the Somali regional capital of Jijiga.  Post has 
received reports from the NGOs that several NGO staff members 
have left the region for their own safety.  Two senior 
members of the Somali Regional cabinet have fled the country, 
and the Governor of Gode has quit, all citing their 
unwillingness to carry out security functions for the GoE. 
(NOTE: Post is attempting to confirm these reports.  END 
NOTE.) USAID Addis and NGOs have reported that civil servants 
continue to be pressed into the government militias, and many 
have fled to avoid recruitment.  NGOs and USAID Addis staff 
traveling through the region noted that there are numerous 
reports of punishment of locals seen speaking to foreigners, 
and there is fear of speaking to foreigners in public as a 
result.  Information must be gathered carefully through 
personal relationships and trusted contacts.  The Portuguese 
Ambassador who headed an EU troika trip to Jijiga reported 
that the EU ambassadors received little information during 
their trip. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Insurgency: NGOs report that truckers from 
Somaliland are refusing to travel to areas outside of the 
main towns due to insecurity, landmines, ONLF activity and 
ONLF-ENDF fighting.  NGOs continue to inform us that as a 
result of insecurity they cannot and will not travel to many 
rural parts of the Ogaden. These situations also make 
potential food distribution to rural areas difficult.  The 
Ambassador noted that the Ogaden and Somalia are linked 
together because of insurgents operating from Somalia. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
COMMENT: U.S. EFFORTS SHOWING RESULTS, MUCH STILL TO DO 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) The December 14 meeting at the Ambassador's 
residence as well as the general consensus among NGO groups 
is one of extreme frustration.  While efforts led by the U.S. 
have resulted in positive forward movement in opening access 
for NGOs and UN food distribution to major towns, reports 
from the NGO community in particular indicate that the 
situation is getting worse.  If food does not reach the rural 
areas quickly and in significant amounts, child mortality 
rates and famine-like conditions are most likely expected to 
increase.  Post will continue to lead efforts among the 
NGO-UN-Donor group to develop new approaches with the GoE to 
address these concerns. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Needs far outweigh resources and restricted access 
to the most affected areas remains a serious concern. 
Additional assistance is needed for emergency malnutrition 
support and health interventions, such as inoculation against 
predatory diseases such as measles and meningitis. 
Considerable additional support will be needed for 
rehabilitation and recovery activities and for livelihoods 
support, integrated with conflict resolution and peace 
building activities when circumstances allow. The proposed 
USAID assessment team will be an important support mechanism 
to assess needs. END COMMENT. 
YAMAMOTO