VZCZCXRO7760
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHAR #2587/01 3551227
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 211227Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY ACCRA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5888
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 002587 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM GH
SUBJECT: THE NPP PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION AND ELECTION 2008 
 
REF: ACCRA 2477 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  As the December 22 New Patriotic Party (NPP) 
Convention moves closer, the debate has intensified, and rank and 
file supporters appear more disillusioned by ostentatious campaigns 
and exorbitant spending.  Some party officials fear the NPP is 
losing touch with its base and privately worry that the NDC, lead by 
two time Presidential candidate, John Atta Mills, is quietly 
drumming up support in NPP strongholds.  No frontrunner has emerged 
yet, but some insiders and pundits believe Kufuor is intervening to 
support former Trade Minister Alan Kyerematen as the NPP nominee. 
In turn, these efforts appear to be heightening divisions within the 
NPP after eight years in power, and these divisions threaten to 
carry over to the general election campaign in 2008.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Internal party Challenges, a Stormy Test for Democracy 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Eighteen individuals from varying backgrounds and 
ethnicities are seeking the NPP nomination to be the next President 
of Ghana.  As the December 22 Convention approaches, internal 
battles within the NPP have increased and the party is struggling to 
stay unified as it focuses on selecting one candidate for President 
who all factions of the NPP can support. 
 
¶3. (U) The 18 presidential aspirants were recently vetted by the 
party and the final, official list of candidates was released on 
November 30 (reftel).  One candidate, former Deputy Interior 
Minister Nkrabeah Effah-Dartey, was disqualified due to a 1981 court 
martial. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Following the vetting process, each of the 230 NPP 
constituencies (corresponding to parliamentary constituencies) in 
Ghana has named 10 delegates to vote at the Convention.  This list 
was released to the candidates on December 8, giving them time to 
personally lobby those individuals.  The regional breakdown of the 
delegates is as follows: Ashanti 17%, Brong Ahafo 10%, Central 8%, 
Eastern 12%, Greater Accra 12%, Northern 10%, Volta 10%, Western 11% 
Upper East 6% and Upper West 4%.  Ethnicity promises to be an 
important part of the selection process. 
 
Accusations all Around 
---------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Allegations of misconduct have been prominent during the 
NPP nomination process, and corruption allegations will likely 
continue to play a large part in the general election.  For example, 
former Finance Minister Yaw Osafo Maafo said in October that Alan 
Kyerematen was involved in shady lending deals with government money 
while in office.  Kyerematen responded that he suspects, but cannot 
prove, that Osafo Maafo benefited from under-the-table dealings with 
the Chinese in multi-million dollar construction projects.  Osafo 
Maafo's supporters shot back and accused Kyerematen of diverting 
Presidential Special Initiatives (PSI) funds and mismanaging the 
project. Former FM Nana Akuffo Addo has also repeatedly attacked his 
long time rival Kyerematen.  The media, for its part, continues to 
hype up the rivalries between different ethnic factions in the NPP. 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Questions have also been raised about the integrity of the 
NPP selection process, as both Vice President Aliu Mahama and Alan 
Kyerematen publicly protested the publication of personal details 
from their party files by a newspaper. They insisted that those 
details were submitted to the NPP's vetting committee only. In the 
ensuing outcry, the Party's national headquarters denied any 
wrongdoing, and declined to explain or investigate the matter. 
 
Rallying the Troops in a Shifting Political Landscape: 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) As aspirants continue to canvass for delegates' votes, 
rank and file party members seem to be growing disillusioned.  Some 
have publicly criticized the government's policies. Unemployment, 
poverty, corruption, and the high cost of living, have led to this 
disillusionment, including in NPP strongholds. Candidates have also 
waged expensive campaigns, raising questions about the source of 
funds.  Some frustration appears to stem from the perceived gap 
between the continued high levels of poverty among ordinary 
Ghanaians and the high expectations for material prosperity created 
by the NPP in 2000 and 2004. 
 
NPP Privately Worries about a Loss Next Year 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) In recent weeks, some NPP activists have confided to us 
that the threat of losing the 2008 election is real. They believe 
that a malaise exists among party members, but do not seem to have a 
plan to repair the party's divisions.  Meanwhile, John Atta Mills of 
the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) seems to be 
gaining ground.  Notably, he appears to have growing support in the 
 
ACCRA 00002587  002 OF 002 
 
 
Central Region - historically a strong region for the NPP.  In an 
internal NPP memo circulated last month, the party's regional 
executive warned NPP national headquarters of "the positive gains 
Mills' door-to-door campaign has made to the disadvantage of the 
NPP." The memo said some NPP supporters may not participate in the 
election and focus group discussions have revealed that many 
supporters feel "government is ignoring ordinary voters." 
 
Who Will Win? 
------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Because of the number of aspirants, including a handful of 
serious candidates, it is unclear who will win the NPP nomination on 
December 22. As this is the first democratic succession for an 
incumbent NPP, the struggle is replete with suspicion and intrigue. 
The mistrust among the aspirants and their supporters has increased, 
leading both pundits and party activists to question the party's 
cohesiveness. 
 
¶10. (SBU) While the NDC is unified around a candidate and is quietly 
watching the NPP political infighting, it appears that the NPP is 
tearing itself apart.  Many pundits claim that Kufuor is using his 
influence to push delegates to support his favored candidate, Alan 
Kyerematen.  As this occurs, the nomination is becoming antagonistic 
and divisive. Kufuor's leadership style and policies have alienated 
important elements of the party, and some delegates may vote against 
Kyerematen to signal their displeasure at Kufuor's actions. 
 
¶11. (SBU) To win the national election, the NPP must select a 
candidate capable of attracting nationwide support, counter its 
Ashanti/Akan tag, and persuade its disaffected supporters to vote. 
Retaining core support in Ashanti, Eastern, Central and Western 
regions and improving on 2004 electoral records in Greater Accra, 
Northern and Volta regions are essential to retaining power. Party 
officials understand this logic but it is still too early to tell 
who they will select to challenge NDC aspirant John Atta Mills to 
succeed Kufuor. 
 
BROWN