VZCZCXRO7758
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHAR #2586/01 3551226
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 211226Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY ACCRA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5886
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 002586 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM GH
SUBJECT: THE LEADING NPP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES 
 
REF: A) ACCRA 1962 B) ACCRA 1037 C) ACCRA 2451 D) ACCRA 2392 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Only one more day remains in the race to select 
the next New Patriotic Party Presidential candidate for the 2008 
election.  In this two part series, Post will take a closer look at 
the leading candidates for the NPP's nomination and septel will 
focus on the internal dynamics influencing the NPP selection 
process.  Seventeen candidates plus the sitting Vice President are 
seeking the NPP's nomination.  Front runners are former Trade 
Minister Alan Kyerematen, former FM Nana Akuffo Addo, Vice President 
Aliu Mahama, and a few lesser known individuals.  The race appears 
to remain open at this point, although President Kufuor is allegedly 
supporting Kyerematen.  END SUMMARY. 
 
The Battle for the Nomination 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) As the December 22 NPP convention approaches, all signs 
indicate a close and unpredictable outcome.  Presently, Alan 
Kyerematen, Nana Akuffo Addo, Vice President Aliu Mahama, Dan Botwe, 
Yaw Osafo Maafo and Hackman Owusu-Agyeman appear to be leading the 
race to become NPP flag bearer for the 2008 Presidential election. 
Ashanti, Eastern, Central, Western and Greater Accra Regions will be 
the battlegrounds for the NPP candidates.  Tensions among supporters 
of Akuffo Addo, Vice President Mahama and Kyerematen have increased 
in recent weeks as campaigning has intensified.  Many of the NPP 
candidates have run on their records as Ministers and other 
government experience and have given no indication that they would 
change Kufuor's current ruling policies if elected. 
 
"Alan Cash", The Castle's Favorite Candidate 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) With considerably more money than the other NPP nominees and 
the presumed support of President Kufuor, Alan Kyerematen, 51, is 
expected to win votes from most of the pro-Kufuor wing of the party, 
an estimated 30% of the votes.  A former Ambassador to the United 
States, a founding member of the Chairman of the Young Executive 
Forum, an NPP fund raising group, Kyerematen is an amiable 
character.  He has been Kufuor's friend for several years and, 
perhaps as a result of this friendship, there is a widespread 
perception that Kufuor is providing financial support for 
Kyerematen's candidacy. 
 
¶4. (U) Despite his status as a front-runner, Kyerematen is not 
assured victory primarily because he is not widely known outside the 
NPP and many see him as a political newcomer. He also faces 
significant hurdles in that he is not a dynamic campaigner and he 
could face problems with perceived corruption. If Kyerematen garners 
a sizable chunk of Kufuor's support within the party, however, he 
could win the nomination.  However, an outright victory seems 
unlikely and we expect in this close process to see a run off, which 
we believe will disadvantage Kyerematen.  If, for example, a run off 
occurs between Kyerematen and either Akuffo-Addo or Vice President 
Mahama, we expect the other NPP candidates will not support 
Kyerematen for the reasons listed above.  However, Kyerematen's 
campaigners claim he leads by convincing margins in the race among 
delegates from Ashanti, Central, Brong Ahafo and Greater Accra 
regions. 
 
Nana Akuffo Addo's Designs on the Presidency 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) Former Foreign Minister Nana Akuffo-Addo sees himself as the 
natural successor to Kufuor. He was Kufuor's rival in the party's 
1998 nomination and is widely regarded as the most experienced 
politician with international connections in the NPP. Many important 
chiefs and traditional leaders in the Eastern region are reportedly 
lobbying for him ever since leaked Bureau of National Intelligence 
(BNI) polls revealed that he was the strongest candidate in his 
native Eastern Region (ref A). But as he moves toward the 
nomination, he will need support from outside his home region. 
While Akuffo Addo is an Akyem royal and is often seen as elitist and 
arrogant, his campaign staff does not seem too worried about these 
portrayals.  However, some NPP activists fear he would lose a 
general contest to the NDC flag-bearer John Atta Mills. 
 
Aliu Mahama, as the President's Best Apprentice 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶6. (U) VP Aliu Mahama's campaign focuses on his achievements as Vice 
President for seven years.  Mahama, who is Muslim and hails from 
Ghana's north, has publicly declared himself "the president's best 
apprentice."  His campaigners forcefully argue that the NPP's 
ability to win the December 2008 election ultimately depends on the 
overriding importance of selecting a non-Akan, President Kufuor's 
ethnicity, to be the party nominee.  According to this view, another 
Akan candidate could threaten NPP support in four regions: Volta, 
Northern, Upper East and Upper West.  However, other political 
observers have dismissed these claims, calling them tribal politics. 
 
ACCRA 00002586  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
 
¶7. (U) Mahama's chances of persuading enough Ashantis and Eastern 
delegates to support him are considered slim. Both regions control 
the largest number of delegates:  Ashanti constitutes 17% while the 
Eastern Region has 12%. Mahama will need to swing almost half of the 
voting delegates from the two regions to win the nomination. Mahama 
also suffers a bit in his native Northern Region due to the NPP's 
inability to resolve the 2002 Dagbon conflict (ref B). 
 
Identifying with the Rank and File 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (U) Dan Botwe is an ambitious candidate and enjoys widespread 
support among the party's foot soldiers and youths, many of whom 
feel left out of Ghana's economic progress. Botwe was also General 
Secretary of the NPP during the last two elections, helping guide 
 
SIPDIS 
the NPP to two victories.  However, in 2005, he waged an internal 
campaign to oppose President Kufuor's attempts to name a party 
chairman. Six months later, he lost his position as Minister of 
Information.  He has since distanced himself from the Presidency but 
retains the support and respect of rank and file members who say 
they have little to show for their support of the NPP since 2000. 
He is also quietly backed by NPP Party Chairman Peter Mac Manu and 
other key members of the Party's Council of Elders (refs C and D). 
These ties worry other candidates, particularly Kyerematen. 
 
How relevant is Osafo Maafo's Economic Background? 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Osafo Maafo, 64, is a quiet contender but just as ambitious 
as the others. His platform mainly focuses on protecting the 
country's macro-economic gains to foster foreign investment and 
economic growth. Osafo Maafo's wit, stature in the ruling party, 
grip on the economy and knowledge about government economic policies 
are unchallengeable. He has long been a leading member of Kufuor's 
government; first as Finance Minister and later Education and Sports 
Minister, although he was surprisingly dropped last April without 
explanation by the presidency.  He has faced allegations of 
corruption in the past, which could weaken his candidacy as 
corruption is likely to be a major issue for this election. 
 
Can Hackman Ward off Health Fears? 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) Hackman Owusu-Agyemang, 65, a former Water Resources, 
Works and Housing Minister, has solid credentials within the ruling 
party. He is also a tough party hack with a strong power base in the 
Eastern Region. He has been successful in business and has a solid 
background as an international civil servant. His background is 
impressive: party treasurer, Member of Parliament since 1996, former 
Foreign Minister in Kufuor's first term, and Minister of Interior. 
He operates cautiously and has so far kept himself busy in seven 
regions (Eastern, Central, Ashanti, Western, Greater Accra, Northern 
and Upper East). Even though he is technically Ashanti, he has 
always identified himself with the Eastern Region.  He represents 
the conservative wing of the party and will likely garner the 
support of the old guard.  Other candidates increasingly treat him 
as a contender, but spread unconfirmed stories about his poor 
health. 
 
The Rest of the Pack tag along 
------------------------------ 
 
¶11.  (SBU) The rest of the pack is rounded out by Kwame Addo Kufuor, 
Papa Owusu Ankoma, Kwabena Frimpong-Boateng, Mike Ocquaye, Baffuor 
Adjei-Bawuah, Felix Owusu-Agyepong, Kofi Konadu Apraku, Kwabena 
Agyepong, Jake Obetsibi Lamptey, Arthur Kennedy and Boakye 
Kyerematen Agyarko.  None of these candidates is likely to poll very 
well in the nomination process, but they are probably angling for 
future roles in the next administration, should the NPP win the Osu 
Castle once again. 
 
Looking Ahead 
------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) The race remains relatively open at this point.  Each 
candidate has strengths and liabilities and it remains difficult to 
predict a winner.  Septel will look closer at the campaign and the 
NPP's internal dynamics. 
 
BROWN