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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 12 TOKYO 005376 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 11/29/07 
 
 
Index: 
 
(1) Futenma relocation: Japan, U.S. agree to landing of barges to 
transport helicopters, premised on seawall construction (Okinawa 
Times) 
 
(2) Japan must return supply ship to the Indian Ocean (Part B): 
Yukio Okamoto (Sankei) 
 
(3) Japan must return supply ship to the Indian Ocean (Part C) -- 
Japan disappearing from war on terror: Yukio Okamoto (Sankei) 
 
(4) Editorial: Diet deliberations on new antiterror legislation; We 
want to hear essential debates in Upper House (Yomiuri) 
 
(5) Ruling coalition filled with sense of crisis due to Moriya's 
arrest; DPJ to gear up its offensive (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(6) Spot interview with Takushoku University Professor Satoshi 
Morimoto on arrest of former Vice Defense Minister Moriya: 
Foundation of defense policy has lost credibility (Yomiuri) 
 
(7) Editorial: Japan needs to overcome delay in defense exchanges 
with China (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(8)Working population estimated to fall by 10 million in 2030, 
necessitating reform of working system (Nikkei) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Futenma relocation: Japan, U.S. agree to landing of barges to 
transport helicopters, premised on seawall construction 
 
OKINAWA TIMES (Page 2) (Full) 
November 29, 2007 
 
Speaking about the alternate facility to Futenma Air Station, U.S. 
Consul General to Okinawa Kevin Maher at his regularly scheduled 
press conference yesterday revealed that Japan and the U.S. had 
agreed to secure a landing dock for barges in order to transport 
damaged helicopters. The landing dock would be separate from the 
docking area to be used for fuel supply ships to come and go 
transporting aircraft fuel. Consideration is being given to a 
building a straight line sea-wall structure. Consul General Maher 
said, "I think (the Japanese government) has generally decided (the 
landing location)." 
 
In connection with the port functions of the alternate facility, 
Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba commented in the Lower House 
Security Affairs Committee about the transport of helicopters by 
ship for repairs: "This would be different facility cost related to 
vessels than the port facility." He hinted the idea was being 
studied. 
 
Consul General Maher said, "I will not deny of course what Minister 
Ishiba had said." He then explained: "Since it will be difficult to 
transport a plane needing repairs by truck, we (the U.S. and Japan) 
studied whether we needed a separate location for barges aside from 
the alternate facility for the sake of repairing helicopters. 
 
On the landing site, he stated: "I will probably be separate from 
the dock used for fuel. We are studying it in the master plan. It is 
 
TOKYO 00005376  002 OF 012 
 
 
not a special facility; we just need a spot. For example, usually a 
seawall is tilted, but if it is made straight, the barge reportedly 
could land there." 
 
On the other hand, he also said: "We are not talking about building 
a port or a wharf." He stressed that there was no assumption of 
using vessels that regularly carried and unloaded cargo. 
 
(2) Japan must return supply ship to the Indian Ocean (Part B): 
Yukio Okamoto 
 
SANKEI (Top play and Page 3) (Full) 
November 28, 2007 
 
Chinese personnel 40 times greater than Japan's 
 
Vessels of other countries have been continuing surveillance 
activities in the Indian Ocean, struggling to fill the void left by 
Japan's departure. Vessels carrying terrorists and drugs sail from 
Afghanistan to the Arabian Peninsula and even to Africa to return to 
the country loaded with weapons. (The maritime interdiction 
operation) is designed to block such maritime navigation. 
 
The number of suspicious vessels cruising in the Indian Ocean has 
declined owing to their patrol. 
 
The withdrawal from the Indian Ocean has set back in one blow 
Japan's peace-building efforts since the Gulf war of 1990. It has 
hit Japan like a body blow. Japan's quest for a permanent UN 
Security Council seat, while abandoning the joint obligation of 
defending freedom sounds ludicrous. 
 
Necessary legislation cannot clear the Diet due to the confrontation 
between the lower and upper houses. Such a situation will persist 
for the next six years. The future course of Japan remains 
uncertain. The world is expected to change significantly while the 
Liberal Democratic Party and the Democratic Party of Japan will be 
locking horns in the next six years. 
 
In China, for instance, power is quickly shifting to 
international-minded young generations. Western-educated people with 
international sensitivity and the power to send messages out to the 
world would become national leaders. 
 
At present, 47 Self-Defense Force personnel from Japan are engaged 
in UN peacekeeping operations (PKO), mostly in the Golan Heights. In 
contrast, 1,810 Chinese personnel -- 40 times Japan's number -- are 
engaged in PKO at 12 places. 
 
It might be the Chinese Navy that will deploy troops to the Indian 
Ocean for the international community. Where will Japan be when such 
happens? 
 
Refueling is "super-safe" 
 
Actions against terrorism in Afghanistan can be classified into the 
following four categories in the order of risk: 
 
Category 1: The anti-Al-Qaeda and Taliban operation called Operation 
of Enduring Freedom (OEF) is the most dangerous. Needless to say, 
Japan should not join this operation. 
 
 
TOKYO 00005376  003 OF 012 
 
 
Category 2: Ground operations of the International Security 
Assistance Force (ISAF) for maintaining security in Afghanistan are 
dangerous after Category 1. Although ISAF activities are designed to 
assist the Afghan government with its security operations, they have 
become targets of terrorists. 
 
Category 3: The Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) entails some 
risk, although it is not as dangerous as Category 2. The PRT is 
composed of the government officials and private-sector personnel 
who are engaged in economic reconstruction and humanitarian 
assistance in local areas in Afghanistan, and the escort units. 
 
Category 4: Inspecting suspicious vessels in the Indian Ocean far 
away from the terrorists is most safe, although it is not risk-free 
because suspicious boats might fire shots. 
 
Japan did not belong to any of these categories. Japan created a 
"super-safe" framework outside Category 4. 
 
Japan was responsible strictly for providing fuel oil without 
joining the maritime interdiction operation. Once waters in which 
the Japanese supply ship was operating became dangerous, it was 
allowed to evaluate to a safe zone. Although the SDF personnel had 
to expend sweat, they were free from the danger of losing their 
lives or suffering injury. 
 
But that does not mean Japan's role was less significant. The SDF 
personnel burning with a sense of mission performed their duty 
wholeheartedly. The bottom line is that in operations against 
terrorism, there is no mission that is safer than this. The 
operation was not costly and was appreciated by the international 
community. 
 
It was a good role envied by 40 other countries. The operation was 
not possible without the MSDF's equipment, technology, and 
enthusiasm. 
 
The Democratic Party of Japan forced Japan into abandoning the 
operation. What does the party have in mind for Japan after this? 
 
(3) Japan must return supply ship to the Indian Ocean (Part C) -- 
Japan disappearing from war on terror: Yukio Okamoto 
 
SANKEI (Top play and Page 3) (Full) 
November 28, 2007 
 
Ichiro Ozawa announced that Japan should stop the refueling 
operation at sea and join the International Security Assistance 
Force (ISAF). Although his view opposing the safe ship-to-ship 
refueling operation and urging Japan instead to join more dangerous 
activities surprised me, the proposal itself is laudable. It is a 
path Japan should aim at. 
 
Why? Ground Self-Defense Force troops repaired hospitals and roads 
in the southern Iraqi city of Samawah; their work was appreciated by 
local residents. And they returned home safely. It was splendid. Of 
some 40 countries that sent troops to Iraq, the Japanese troops 
completed their operations most smoothly and safely. 
 
Other countries were envious of Japan. Other countries wanted to 
engage in clean operations, like the SDF. But in view of reality, 
someone had to protect the lives of Iraqi citizens before providing 
 
TOKYO 00005376  004 OF 012 
 
 
humanitarian assistance. That is why troops of other countries stood 
on the streets armed with guns. 
 
The area in which SDF was stationed was protected by Dutch, British, 
and Australian forces in succession. Other countries welcomed the 
SDF in Iraq. But Japan is no longer allowed to say: "We will provide 
humanitarian assistance, while you are responsible for dangerous 
security operations." 
 
What Ozawa said is good. Japan should join ISAF and play a role in 
security operations. If the main operations are too dangerous, Japan 
should engage in safer operations, such as transport assistance. The 
Air Self-Defense Force's C-130H has been transporting supplies and 
personnel from Kuwait to Baghdad and Irbil in Iraq. How about flying 
from Kuwait to Kabul, as well? 
 
SDF aircraft is fully capable of flying there. Besides, the Kabul 
Airport area is safer than the Baghdad Airport area. Airlifting ISAF 
supplies and personnel would be a fine way of ISAF participation. 
Furthermore, it would be a great contribution for Japan to provide 
necessary supplies free of charge. Providing support services at 
ISAF headquarters would be another option. In short, once the mind 
is set, there are many ways to join it. 
 
But some LDP members opposed the option of joining ISAF simply 
because the proposal came from Ozawa. Will the LDP seal off one of 
the state options? Prioritizing the political situation over 
national interests means that the LDP is the same (as the DPJ). Who 
thinks of the country? 
 
PRT participation 
 
Without notice, Ozawa retracted the ISAF proposal and the DPJ has 
instead proposed joining the Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in 
the aforementioned Category 3 to provide "civilian assistance." It 
would be good if the proposal is based on a thorough knowledge, but 
there might be a fundamental misconception. 
 
Nearly 40 experts from the Japan International Cooperation Agency 
(JICA) and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) have already been 
offering regular civilian assistance at various parts of 
Afghanistan. The PRT is a project for the military, border guards, 
and special police forces to escort civilian support teams apart 
from it. 
 
The PRT is important. All of Afghanistan is in need of civilian 
assistance. For instance, girls were prohibited from going to school 
during the Taliban era. Today, girls go to school with sparkling 
eyes. Yet there are no desks, chairs, or blackboards in classrooms. 
Medical equipment is in short. Vocational training facilities are 
also necessary. There is the question of antipersonnel mines, as 
well. The PRT is there to defend experts facing such tasks. At 
present, 27 countries are participating in the PRT. 
 
For instance, Britain is in charge of the PRT in Helmand, German in 
Kunduz, and the Netherlands in Uruzgan. This means that those 
countries are responsible for escorting the foreign experts and NGO 
personnel carrying out activities in those provinces. 
 
If Japan can join them, that would be creditable. Work is intended 
to directly bring stability to Afghanistan. But I wonder if (Japan) 
can really do such work. 
 
TOKYO 00005376  005 OF 012 
 
 
 
Countries participating in OEF and ISAF and numbers of people 
killed 
 
United States 463 
Britain 84 
Canada 71 
Spain 23 
Germany 22 
France 12 
Netherlands 12 
Italy 9 
Denmark 7 
Romania 5 
Norway 3 
Australia 3 
Sweden 2 
Estonia 2 
Poland 1 
Portugal 1 
Czech 1 
Finland 1 
South Korea 1 
Total 723 
 
(As of November 16, 2007, by US CNN) 
 
(4) Editorial: Diet deliberations on new antiterror legislation; We 
want to hear essential debates in Upper House 
 
YOMIURI (Page 3) (Full) 
November 29, 2007 
 
We want to hear essential debates pursued in the Upper House 
regarding how Japan should tackle the war on terror to fulfill 
responsibility as a member of the international community. 
 
The Upper House has at last started deliberating on the new 
antiterror special measures bill aimed at resuming refueling 
operations in the Indian Ocean by the Maritime Self-Defense Agency 
(MSDA). More than a fortnight has passed since the passage of the 
bill in the Lower House. 
 
The recent war of words between the ruling and opposition camps has 
focused on whether Finance Minister Nukaga was present at a wining 
and dining session hosted by the former executive director of Yamada 
Yoko. In an unusual move, the Upper House Financial Affairs 
Committee has decided by a majority vote to summon Nukaga and former 
Administrative Vice Defense Minister Takemasa Moriya on Dec. 3 as 
sworn witnesses. 
 
Nukaga denied his presence at the wining and dining session on Dec. 
4 last year. The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) is 
geared up for a full-fledged confrontation with Nukaga, insisting 
that he was present there. 
 
However, even if Nukaga were present at such a session joined by 
many guests, including a key US official, it would not prove that 
there were collusive ties between Nukaga and the former executive 
director. It is questionable whether it was necessary to decide to 
summon them as witnesses, even if it meant undermining the solid 
vote principle. 
 
TOKYO 00005376  006 OF 012 
 
 
 
It will likely that only four days or so can be spared for actual 
deliberations on the bill at the Diplomatic and Defense Affairs 
Committee by the time the Diet session ends next month. The ruling 
and opposition parties must give top priority to discussions on 
whether to resume the refueling operations and whether there are any 
alternative measures. A precondition to realize such discussions is 
for the DPJ to come up with a realistic counterproposal at an early 
date. 
 
The DPJ says that it is now carrying out the work of shaping 
essential features of a bill, which it has already drafted, into the 
general outline of a bill. However, the problem is its contents. 
 
The outline of the drafted bill includes the consolidation of 
farmland, medical services and transportation as activities the 
Self-Defense Forces should engage. It does not indicate to which 
areas of Afghanistan they will be dispatched and to what operations 
they will be assigned. 
 
The DPJ-sponsored bill stipulates that SDF operations are to be 
carried out in areas where a ceasefire is established or where it 
has been acknowledged that there would be no damage likely to be 
inflicted on civilians. There are no areas that meet those 
conditions in Afghanistan, which means that the DPJ's basic stance 
is that Japan should do nothing for humanitarian assistance. 
 
Refueling operations are based on the United Nations Security 
Council (UNSC) Resolution 1368. The international community hopes to 
see Japan resume its refueling operations at an early date. DPJ 
President Ozawa has declared that refueling operations are 
unconstitutional. However, no DPJ members made similar assertions 
during Lower House deliberations on the new legislation. 
 
An early resumption of the refueling operations is an option that 
will benefit Japan's national interests most. 
 
The Upper House adopted the Iraq Special Measures Law scrapping bill 
introduced by the DPJ. Iraq is now at a crucial juncture with public 
security improved. Transportation operations by the Air Self-Defense 
Force (ASDF) are a major pillar for Japan's international peace 
activities along with the refueling operations. 
 
There may be no prospects for the new legislation to obtain Diet 
approval. Does the DPJ think that it is all right for Japan to 
further lose its presence in the international community? 
 
(5) Ruling coalition filled with sense of crisis due to Moriya's 
arrest; DPJ to gear up its offensive 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) 
November 29, 2007 
 
The arrest of former Administrative Vice Defense Minister Takemasa 
Moriya, who was called the "don" of the Defense Ministry, has 
shocked the government and ruling parties. If criticism of the 
Fukuda government increases, it will be even more difficult for the 
government to enact a new special measures law that would enable the 
Maritime Self-Defense Force to resume its refueling operations in 
the Indian Ocean. As a result, the view spreading in the government 
and ruling coalition is that the House of Representatives should not 
be resolved for the time being. Meanwhile, the main opposition 
 
TOKYO 00005376  007 OF 012 
 
 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) is determined to gear up 
to go on the offensive, calling for placing priority on shedding 
light on allegations about the Defense Ministry rather than on 
deliberations on the new anti-terror bill. 
 
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's Secretary General Bunmei Ibuki 
denied there would be an impact from the arrest of Moriya on 
deliberations on the new anti-terror bill, telling reporters last 
night: "That is different issue from the refueling operation that is 
connected with Japan's national interests." 
 
However, the "Moriya shock" will have a serious impact on the future 
course of the legislation. Because of the arrest of Moriya, who led 
the nation's defense policy for four years, the credibility of such 
aspects of defense policy as the realignment of US military forces 
in Japan will be called into question. Moreover, the responsibility 
of successive governments for having appointed Moriya as vice 
defense minister will also be under scrutiny. 
 
Many in the ruling camp have now called for re-extending until 
mid-January the current Diet session, which will end on Dec. 15, in 
a bid to show their stance of not hesitating to re-adopt the bill at 
the Lower House. There is a possibility, however, that if the Lower 
House readopts the bill, the DPJ will submit to the Upper House a 
censure motion against the prime minister and that it will be 
approved in that chamber. This could force Fukuda to dissolve the 
Lower House. Should the approval rating for the Fukuda government 
drop due to Moriya's arrest, a cautious view that the ruling parties 
cannot do well in the next Lower House election will definitely gain 
momentum. 
 
There is also a possibility that if the investigation extends into 
political circles, the view will become stronger that in order to 
avoid the DPJ's pursuit of the allegations, the current Diet session 
should not be extended and the bill should be let die so that the 
government will be able to submit a new bill to the next regular 
session. 
 
Meanwhile, the DPJ intends to heighten its offensive, placing a 
priority on shedding light on the scandals over continuing the 
deliberations on the new antiterrorism bill. 
 
DPJ Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama told reporters yesterday: "The 
scandals involving the Defense Ministry have significantly damaged 
the beauty of the bill." Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Kenji 
Yamaoka also emphasized: "What we first should do is reform the 
scandal-tainted Defense Ministry." 
 
Backed by the power of numbers in the Upper House, the DPJ, which 
had been predominant in managing the chamber's Foreign Affairs and 
Defense Committee, to which the new anti-terror bill was submitted, 
has now gained greater strength with the arrest of Moriya. There is 
a move in the opposition bloc pursuing the supervisory 
responsibility of Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was defense 
chief when Moriya assumed the vice minister's post. 
 
The DPJ has not given up on summoning Finance Minister Fukushiro 
Nukaga to testify as a sworn witness before the Upper House 
Financial Affairs Committee on Dec. 3 as planned. DPJ President 
Ichiro Ozawa and Hatoyama confirmed yesterday that at least Nukaga 
alone should be summoned as scheduled. The party intends to seek a 
hearing from Moriya. 
 
TOKYO 00005376  008 OF 012 
 
 
 
Yamaoka even said: "Moriya was arrested the day after the Upper 
House committee decided to summon him on Dec. 3. If this is a 
maneuvering to cover up the scandals, it is very regrettable." He 
made it sound like that the government intentionally hid the 
witness. 
 
(6) Spot interview with Takushoku University Professor Satoshi 
Morimoto on arrest of former Vice Defense Minister Moriya: 
Foundation of defense policy has lost credibility 
 
YOMIURI (Page 13) (Full) 
November 29, 2007 
 
Interviewer: Yuji Anai 
 
It is difficult to tell how the bribery scandal involving former 
Vice Defense Minister Moriya will develop in the days ahead, but 
there will be certainly a serious impact (on Japan's defense 
policy). As a government official, Moriya acted out of line. Did he 
lack morality and common sense as a public servant? Didn't he feel 
any pricks of conscience? 
 
Everybody has both a good side and a bad side. It is hard to say all 
aspects of one's performance and behavior are evils. Working for 
both the Koizumi and Abe administrations, Moriya was deeply involved 
in an important part of Japan's defense policy, including emergency 
legislation on national security, the realignment of the US 
military, missile defense, and the elevation of the Defense Agency 
to a ministry status. I wonder whether Moriya might have 
overestimated his achievements related to those defense elements. 
 
Moriya was well-versed in seeking prior advice or consent from 
politicians, political maneuvering and putting forth policy 
measures. He was unparalleled in terms of the ability to do those 
things. Perhaps for this remarkable ability, he was promoted to the 
post of vice minister. I frequently exchanged views with Moriya over 
Japan's defense policy, but I was unaware at all that he was 
involved in bribe-taking. I am now astonished to learn he had two 
faces. 
 
There seem to be five lessons from the bribery case this time. 
 
First, the vice minister got hold of the fundamental guidelines for 
Japan's defense policy and was in a position to exercise his 
authority over the purchase of equipment related to the guidelines. 
If the vice minister had acted out of line and benefited a defense 
contractor, the current system applied to the Defense Ministry, 
under which the vice minister controls defense policy as well as the 
procurement system, must be drastically reviewed. Particularly, the 
current procurement system needs to be fundamentally revamped. 
 
Secondly, the way information has been managed is problematic. 
National defense policy is directly linked to weaponry to be 
procured. What if a very fundamental piece of information linked to 
national defense was leaked out to a private company and then a 
third country? 
 
The third problem is that Moriya might have had a wrong idea about 
civilian control. Moriya appears to have believed that he could 
bring about anything as the top leader of the defense bureaucracy by 
just issuing orders to the Ground, Air, and Maritime Self-Defense 
 
TOKYO 00005376  009 OF 012 
 
 
Forces. However, if what was done in response to orders from a 
civilian official is now found to have been wrong, the reliability 
of civilian control could be totally undermined. Self-Defense Forces 
(SDF) officials' distrust of the civilian official system would 
seriously affect the way civilian control should be in the future. 
 
Fourth, the bribery case will have a grave impact on deliberations 
on systems and bills after deliberations on a budget bill for next 
year, even though Japan is now in need of reviewing its national 
defense system. Depending on how the scandal develops in the days 
ahead, a number of officials and persons concerned would be punished 
in some way or other or they would be subject to criminal 
investigations; as a result, the defense budget could be further 
slashed and the introduction of a new weaponry system could be 
suspended. In fact, the Ministry of Finance is gearing up to make a 
drastic cut in defense spending in compiling the budget bill for 
next year. This bribery case would have an immeasurably negative 
impact. 
 
Lastly, the bribery case will affect Japan's alliance with the 
United States. Moriya's intentional attempt to manipulate 
politicians and mass media in dealing with such issues as relocating 
the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station has resulted in Japan 
losing America's confidence. As a result, the Japan-U.S. alliance is 
not necessarily in a good shape right now. It will be a major 
challenge for Japan to be able to restore the credibility of the 
Japan-U.S. alliance. 
 
The bribery case has rocked the most fundamental part of Japan's 
defense policy and caused Japan's defense policy to lose 
credibility. Japan needs to thoroughly review the way the Defense 
Ministry operates and then to regain credibility. 
 
The East Asian situation surrounding Japan is not stable at all at 
present. Nevertheless, if this kind of bribery case ruins Japan's 
defense capability our predecessors have built over the past 50 or 
more years, it will become impossible to scheme national defense 
from a long-term perspective from now on. This is the most serious 
crisis since the foundation of the SDF. The Defense Agency was 
upgraded to the Defense Ministry, but the organization in itself was 
not ready to be elevated to a ministry. This point must be deeply 
examined. 
 
Satoshi Morimoto: professor at Takushoku University. 
 
(7) Editorial: Japan needs to overcome delay in defense exchanges 
with China 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 5) (Full) 
November 28, 2007 
 
A Chinese naval vessel will arrive today at Tokyo's Harumi Pier for 
its first port call in Japan. Defense exchanges between Japan and 
China have substantially fallen behind those between the United 
States and China in the aftermath of bilateral issues, such as 
Yasukuni Shrine. In order to avoid a dispute between Japan and 
China, Japan should take this opportunity to further develop 
bilateral exchanges with China. 
 
In October 2000, when then Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji visited Japan, 
the two countries agreed on a Chinese naval vessel's port call in 
Japan. 
 
TOKYO 00005376  010 OF 012 
 
 
 
However, former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visit to Yasukuni 
Shrine strained relations between Japan and China. The visit of a 
Chinese naval vessel was put on hold. In August this year, the two 
countries held a meeting of their defense ministers and then finally 
decided to carry it out. 
 
Since the initial agreement, eight years have passed. Over the past 
years, China has markedly developed its defense exchanges with the 
United States and other countries. Of course, the United States and 
China had their respective naval ships visit each other. In 
addition, the two countries also even carried out joint seaborne 
rescue training exercises. 
 
It is important to promote defense exchanges between Japan and 
China. It may sound paradoxical, but that is because there is a 
conflict of national interests between the two countries and that 
there is a sense of distrust in each other. 
 
In the East China Sea, China has been claiming territorial rights to 
the archipelago of Senkaku isles (named "Diaoyu Islands" in China). 
Japan and China have been claiming their respective exclusive 
economic zones (EEZ) in the sea. 
 
Near the equidistant line, China is developing gas fields. Bilateral 
talks for joint development are running into trouble. China even has 
rattled its saber, declaring that it would send out naval forces if 
and when Japan tried to drill an experimental gas well in that sea 
area. 
 
In that disputed area, the two countries' defense forces face each 
other. Small trouble could develop into a conflict. 
 
China is still doubtful of Japan's self-defense capabilities for 
historical reasons. Japan is wary of China's growing military power 
due to its rapid military buildup and the scale of its officially 
announced military spending that outpaces Japan's defense budget. 
 
Japan and China need to accumulate defense exchanges and understand 
each other's intentions and capabilities in order for the two 
countries to ease such a sense of mutual distrust and avoid 
conflict. That is the key. It is also important to lay a hotline 
between Japan and China for emergency communications. 
 
At one time, Japan and China fought each other in a war. Their armed 
forces are now deepening exchanges and showing that they are getting 
along well with each other. This will help the two countries ease 
their respective nationalism and national sentiments. 
 
Japan and China must avoid conflict through defense exchanges. In 
addition, it is necessary for the two countries to deepen their 
mutual defense exchanges not only at the level of top brass officers 
but also at various other levels for further confidence building. 
China is now being called to increase the transparency of its 
defense power. We suggest that officials in charge of white papers 
on both side engage in exchanges and swap ideas. 
 
Both Japan and China are even more responsible in the international 
community. It is important for their forces to work together through 
joint training for United Nations peacekeeping operations and 
seaborne rescue operations. 
 
 
TOKYO 00005376  011 OF 012 
 
 
Japan and China will hold a foreign ministerial meeting early next 
month, and Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda is expected to visit China 
late this year. Japan and China will then go for an agreement on the 
pending issue of East China Sea gas fields. The two countries, both 
protecting their own sovereignties and territories, are now facing 
rough going in expanding defense exchanges. Their talks will lead to 
creating an atmosphere for an agreement on the issue. 
 
(8)Working population estimated to fall by 10 million in 2030, 
necessitating reform of working system 
 
NIHON KEIZAI (Page 3) (Excerpts) 
November 29, 2007 
 
According to an estimate made by the Ministry of Health, Labor and 
Welfare (MHLW) on Nov. 28, Japan's working population (number of the 
employed and job seekers over the age of 15) will drop by 10.7 
million from the current 66.57 million in 2030. Japan's dwindling 
birthrate and aging population are most pronounced in the world. It 
will enter an aging society with fewer children at a speed that no 
countries have ever experienced. Japan's workforce will also decline 
at an unprecedented pace. Such being the outlook, it would be 
difficult to maintain the current form of the society with the 
present working system. 
 
Japan's working system has an aspect of hampering even those who are 
capable of working from doing so. For instance, if employee pension 
scheme members continue to work after 60 years of age, their pension 
benefits would be slashed, according to their wages. Atsushi Seike, 
professor at Keio University, pointed out, "Such a system dampens 
people's desire to work. It is necessary to reform it immediately." 
 
(10 PERCENT  of elderly people come to 3 million) 
 
At present, the number of elderly people aged 65 or over is 
approximately 27 million. The number is estimated to continue to 
rise in the future as well. 
 
Some companies have started employing elderly people. Aeon, a 
leading retailer, increased the mandatory retirement age to 65 in 
February. Toyota Motors allows its employees aged 60 years or older 
who have reached the mandatory retirement age to continue to work 
four hours a day at their request and depending on the details of 
their work. 
 
The number of workers aged 65 or older at present stands at 
approximately 5 million. If 10 PERCENT  of the 27 million get jobs, 
it would mean that nearly 3 million workers would make up for the 
labor shortage. 
 
(Potential female labor force stands at 3.5 million) 
 
Japan has yet to fully use female as labor force. Japan is an 
unusual country where 70 PERCENT  of women quit jobs when they give 
birth. The measure that should be taken first is to keep female 
workers by proving flexible working patterns, such as a 
telecommuting system and an improved short working-time system. 
Leading companies have started improve systems. For instance, 
long-term employees at Teijin have increased from 23 PERCENT  to 47 
PERCENT  over the past decade or so. 
 
The number of women who gave up their jobs due to housework and 
 
TOKYO 00005376  012 OF 012 
 
 
child-rearing stands at 3.5 million. If these women can work in a 
flexible manner, potential female workers would come back to 
workplaces. 
 
(NEET numbers 600,000) 
 
The population of those at their working prime in the 18-34 age 
bracket stands at approximately 28 million, but the number is 
estimated to dwindle to approximately 19 million in 2030, down by 
more than 30 PERCENT . The number of NEET, who are not in education, 
employment or training, stands at 620,000. So-called freeters 
(job-hopping part-time workers), who do not have permanent jobs, 
stand at 1.8 million. It is time to boost the measures backing the 
government's second-chance job plan so that freeters can become 
permanent workers so that they do not have to worry about losing 
jobs. 
 
(Refined state-of-the-art technologies are worth a hundred men) 
 
Robots are expected as labor force that can replace humans. Japan is 
already the top industrial robot country in the world. Approximately 
370,000 units of industrial robots are in operation in Japan, 
largely topping the numbers operating in North America and Germany. 
 
Many companies see business opportunities in nursing-care or 
medical-service robots. Secom has put on sale robots that help with 
eating. Robot suits that help humans move their hands and feet will 
also be put on the market shortly. According to an estimate made by 
the Japan Robot Association, the shipment value of robots in Japan 
in 2007 will reset a new record high with 760 billion yen. This is 
an area where Japan's state-of-the-art technologies are made most 
of. 
 
(Creation of systems for foreigners) 
 
Demand for workers is expected to rise in the nursing-care area as 
the population ages. The government is pressing ahead with a plan to 
accept Philippine nurses and care- givers. However, the Philippine 
Congress has yet to approve the plan. There is no telling when it 
will approve the plan, according to the MHLW. 
 
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has 
estimated that in order for Japan to maintain the current level of 
population of productive age, it is necessary for it to accept 
500,000 foreign workers a year. However, only about 20,000 
foreigners were in fact approved to work in Japan in 2005 on a 
long-term basis. Unless Japan consolidates a system enabling 
competent foreigners to work, it would fall behind in global 
competition to secure human resources. 
 
SCHIEFFER