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DE RUEHSF #1290/01 3091453
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P 051453Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4492
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 001290 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTION RUN-OFFS CONFIRM GERB, BSP AS BULGARIA'S 
LEADING PARTIES 
 
Ref: (A)SOFIA 1272, (B) SOFIA 1176 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  Sofia Mayor Boiko Borissov's GERB party  gained 
strength in the run-off elections in major towns on November 4, 
asserting itself as a national political force to rival the ruling 
Socialists.  In the first local elections since its formation in 
2006, GERB candidates won against both center-right and Socialist 
incumbents.  Although losing some of its strongholds to GERB, PM 
Sergei Stanishev's Socialists scored relatively well, winning some 
hotly contested run-offs.  Consolidated results for the two rounds 
show the Socialists winning 11 mayoral seats and GERB winning 10. 
As in the first round, the Socialists and GERB both claimed victory. 
 Borissov, whose party won in the biggest cities, said GERB's 
success has redefined the political status quo and called for early 
general elections.  Stanishev ruled out stepping down, saying the 
ruling three-party coalition was set to complete its full term in 
office through mid-2009.  Turnout was around 48 percent in the 
second round, up from 42 percent a week ago.  Vote buying, spurred 
by the prospect of EU funds for municipalities next year, reached 
unprecedented levels and will likely lead to court challenges in a 
number of districts.  END SUMMARY 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  Borissov's GERB (Citizens for European Development of 
Bulgaria), which won the races in Bulgaria's two biggest cities a 
week ago, scored new gains in the November 4 run-offs, winning the 
mayoral seats in several "red" strongholds.  The Bulgarian Socialist 
Party (BSP), which dominates the incumbent three-party coalition, 
managed to hold on to a number of towns with incumbent BSP mayors, 
and won hotly contested races in some regional centers where its 
candidates were seen as underdogs.  Consolidated results from the 
two rounds of the election show that candidates backed by BSP won in 
11 out of the country's 27 regional centers, GERB won in 10, 
candidates of the old center-right parties won five races, and the 
predominantly ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) 
held on to its traditional stronghold Kurdzhali in southeastern 
Bulgaria. (Note: Calculation is based on preliminary results of the 
run-offs.)  As in the first round of the elections, both the 
Socialists and GERB claimed victory.  The Socialists claim national 
victory based on wining the biggest number of seats for municipal 
counselors -- 1,265 to GERB's 1,011.  GERB won in larger towns where 
more votes are needed to elect one city counselor and claimed 
victory on the basis of garnering the biggest number of votes in the 
proportional vote for municipal counselors -- some 601,000 compared 
to some 523,000 for the BSP. 
 
BORISSOV SEEKS EARLY GENERAL ELECTIONS 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Speaking to local media after the results of the run-offs 
were announced, Borissov, who won outright re-election a week ago, 
said the outcome of the vote "clearly showed" that GERB had become 
Bulgaria's leading political force.  He said GERB's election success 
redefined the political status quo, and called for early elections 
next spring, noting that "it was not normal for Bulgaria's number 
one political force not to be represented in parliament."  Borissov 
repeated his vow not to use street pressure to trigger early 
elections.  Instead, he advised the PM, who has a degree in history, 
to put his name in history books by stepping down "to save his party 
and the country."  Borissov, who has portrayed himself as a savior 
of the center-right, said GERB was the alternative to the old 
center-right "parties of the transition," suggesting their time had 
passed. 
 
PM VOWS GOVERNMENT WILL COMPLETE TERM IN OFFICE 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  PM Stanishev struck a realistic note, admitting at an 
election night conference that GERB has emerged as a major political 
force.  The PM dismissed Borissov's calls to step down, saying the 
three-party coalition was set to complete its full term in office. 
"The objective results of the election give no grounds for early 
election," Stanishev said, adding that the ruling coalition had won 
more municipal counselors than all of the other political parties 
combined.  The Socialist Party had achieved a "serious success" in 
the local vote, and was the de facto winner, having won the biggest 
number of municipal counselors and municipal mayors nationwide. 
Stanishev noted that the BSP had done quite well in the current 
political context, saying that the 2007 local election was the first 
Bulgarian vote held amid a nationwide strike.  Stanishev also noted 
that the BSP bucked a trend in post-communist Europe in which ruling 
parties suffered severe election losses in the first year following 
EU accession. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  The PM blasted GERB as a populist party with an unclear 
ideology, saying that GERB's campaign was based on unrealistic 
promises.  If general elections were held now, GERB would win at 
most 65-70 MP seats in the 240-seat parliament, and would need to 
seek partners for coalition alliances, Stanishev said.  Despite 
gloomy forecasts for social unrest in the coming winter, he said the 
government would remain in office until mid-2009 and warned against 
hasty comparisons with the winter of 1997, when a BSP government was 
toppled by mass street protests. 
 
 
SOFIA 00001290  002 OF 002 
 
 
OLD CENTER-RIGHT STILL ALIVE 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  The traditional center-right parties -- the Union of 
Democratic Forces (UDF) and ex-PM Ivan Kostov's Democrats for Strong 
Bulgaria (DSB) -- performed relatively well in the run-offs, adding 
three mayoral seats in major towns to the two races won in the first 
round.  The relatively good performance triggered hopes for a 
revival of the old center-right that has been in disarray since 
¶2001.  Extreme nationalist party Ataka, which in some races sided 
with the center-right candidates for the run-offs, failed to win its 
own mayoral seat in any of the regional centers.  The group said it 
would seek annulment of the vote due to widespread election fraud 
and vote buying.  The National Movement for Simeon II (NMSS) failed 
to win a mayoral seat in any of the major towns, which comes as no 
surprise with party infighting escalating between the two rounds of 
the vote. 
 
ELECTION MARRED BY MASSIVE VOTE-BUYING 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  As in the first round, large scale vote-buying seriously 
marred the run-off vote despite massive police efforts.  The 
phenomenon was especially widespread in Roma areas across the 
country and in municipalities on the Black Sea coast where local 
"business parties" funded by shadowy "entrepreneurs" contested the 
elections.  Local TV stations showed footage of vote buyers freely 
talking about their vote buying plans and methods of marking 
ballots.  People told reporters in front of TV cameras they were 
paid for votes in front of the polling stations, with prices for a 
vote ranging from five levs (USD 3.6) to 200 levs (USD 146).  A 
press report described a method of rendering ballots invalid, called 
"Milosevic's nail," in which a member of the municipal electoral 
commission counting the ballots invalidates the ballot by marking it 
with a pen cartridge hidden in the palm.  More than 20 inquiries 
were launched into vote-buying allegations after the first-round 
vote and 38 persons suspected of vote buying were arrested on 
November 4, said the authorities.  The Civic Initiative for Free and 
Democratic Elections, an NGO that monitors voting, said that results 
in some 100 municipalities are likely to be challenged in court due 
to various irregularities.  The Central Electoral Commission, which 
organizes and supervises the vote, said that despite the 
irregularities the election is legitimate.  PM Stanishev said that 
although vote-buying is not a new practice, it had escalated to new 
levels as political parties and business circles sought to gain 
access to municipal power, set to manage hundreds of millions of 
euros in EU funds starting next year. 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  COMMENT:  Although falling short of its own aspirations 
for a more sweeping victory, the 11-month-old GERB party has 
asserted itself as the rising force on Bulgaria's political scene, 
with support rivaling, if not topping, that of the Socialists. 
GERB's lack of parliamentary representation will create political 
tensions, but those tensions alone are unlikely to trigger an early 
vote without an escalation in social unrest or BSP infighting. 
Stanishev has a good chance of completing a full term in office, but 
an early election cannot be completely ruled out, given the track 
record of other states that saw a change in government following EU 
accession.  The incumbent government risks becoming dysfunctional if 
the PM focuses only on his internal balancing act and not on making 
changes to optimize the work of his cabinet.  In that regard, we do 
not rule out the possibility of rejiggering of ministerial 
portfolios over the next several weeks.  END COMMENT.