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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 000949 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/BSC, DRL/ILCSR, INR/IAA, INR/R/AA 
STATE PASS USTR FOR KATE DUCKWORTH 
NSC FOR TOMASULO 
TREASURY FOR JHOEK 
USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC 
USDOC ALSO FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO 
DOL FOR ILAB 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
USAID FOR LAC/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PINR PGOV KDEM ELAB BR
SUBJECT: LULA ASSOCIATE CALLS THIRD TERM TALK A MEDIA INVENTION 
 
REF: (A) SAO PAULO 749; (B) SAO PAULO 742; 
     (C) SAO PAULO 734; (D) SAO PAULO 94 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (SBU) Devanir Ribeiro, a federal deputy who is a long-time 
personal friend and political associate of President Lula, dismissed 
as an invention of the media rampant speculation that Lula may seek 
to amend the Constitution to allow him to run for a third term in 
¶2010.  Ribeiro denied reports that he plans to propose a plebiscite 
on a third term, claiming that he has an entirely different 
plebiscite proposal.  He doesn't think Lula wants a third term or 
that there is significant popular support for amending the 
Constitution, but acknowledged that the notion cannot be completely 
ruled out and that Lula is not entirely opposed to running again. 
With respect to the December 2 internal elections in the Workers' 
Party (PT), Ribeiro expects incumbent Ricardo Berzoini to be 
re-elected PT national president, possibly in the first round, 
though not without opposition.  He is scornful of his fellow PT 
federal deputy Jose Eduardo Martins Cardozo's bid for the party's 
presidency as well as his plan to run for Mayor of Sao Paulo in 
¶2008.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) A three-time Sao Paulo city councilman now in his second 
term as a federal deputy, Devanir Ribeiro has been associated with 
President Lula since the 1970s when the two were leaders of the 
Metallurgy Workers' Union of Sao Bernardo and Diadema.  Together 
they led strikes against the automobile companies in Sao Paulo's 
industrial "ABC" suburbs (Santo Andre, Sao Bernardo do Campo, Sao 
Caetano do Sul) and went on to help found the Workers' Party (PT) in 
1980 and the Unified Workers' Center (CUT) labor confederation in 
1984, and to play an important role in Brazil's transition from 
military dictatorship to democracy.  Poloff met with Ribeiro 
November 19 to ask about his widely reported initiative to have 
Congress convoke a national plebiscite on whether to amend the 
Constitution to permit a president to serve three consecutive 
terms. 
 
------------------------------------- 
GIVING THE PRESIDENT PLEBISCITE POWER 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) "There is no such initiative in the works", Ribeiro said. 
The media have fabricated the idea out of either confusion or malice 
against Lula and the PT.  Ribeiro has indeed asked the PT leadership 
to approve a plebiscite initiative for him to put to Congress, but 
its purpose would be to give the President the power to convoke 
plebiscites and referenda, without needing Congressional approval. 
Ribeiro cited his deepening frustration, after five years in the 
Chamber of Deputies, with Congress's inability to accomplish 
anything.  He has concluded that the Executive needs to be able to 
work around Congress to enact reforms.  If President Lula had the 
power to convoke a plebiscite on his own authority, Ribeiro said, it 
is conceivable he would seek a plebiscite on political reform and 
electoral rules, along with some provisions of tax reform.  Ribeiro 
doesn't think a Constitutional amendment allowing a third term is a 
high priority of Lula's. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) That said, the notion cannot be ruled out entirely, 
Ribeiro acknowledged.  Certainly, within the PT, which at the moment 
has no strong candidate to run for president in 2010, there are 
elements that see Lula as the party's best hope of maintaining its 
 
SAO PAULO 00000949  002 OF 003 
 
 
hold on power.  Lula himself, in Ribeiro's view, is sincere in his 
public disavowals of interest in another term ("I will pass the sash 
to my successor on January 1, 2011, and I'm going [home] to make my 
roast rabbit" - see ref A).  He thinks eight years is enough for 
anyone, and appears to genuinely believe that the alternation of 
parties in power is better for the country.  At the same time, Lula 
may not be unalterably opposed to another term.  He enjoys being 
President and is aware that many in his base - which according to 
him includes not only Brazil's poor, but also significant portions 
of the financial and business community - would like to see him stay 
on. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) On the question of whom Lula might support as a possible 
successor should he decide not to run, and whether he would throw 
his weight behind a PT candidate or someone from an allied party in 
his governing coalition, Ribeiro said only that "Lula doesn't say 
anything [to me] about that."  While skeptical of the chances of 
Dilma Rousseff, Lula's Chief of Staff, and Jaques Wagner, Governor 
of Bahia, Ribeiro believes former Finance Minister Antonio Palocci 
may be able to mount a serious candidacy.  Palocci, architect and 
implementer of Lula's successful macro-economic policy, resigned in 
March 2006 after it was revealed that he abused his authority in an 
attempt to escape implication in a sexual scandal, but was 
subsequently elected federal deputy by the voters of Sao Paulo.  Yet 
another possibility, Ribeiro said, might be for Lula to choose a 
high-profile private-sector leader, someone like steel magnate Jorge 
Gerdau Johannpeter or textile king Josue Gomes da Silva, 
Vice-President Alencar's son. 
 
----------------------------------- 
PT INTERNAL DIVISIONS AND ELECTIONS 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Poloff asked Ribeiro for insights into the PT's December 2 
elections for national, state, and local party presidents and 
directorates.  Ribeiro, a member of the PT's so-called "Majority 
Camp" (CM - see refs B and C), predicted that the CM's candidate, 
incumbent Ricardo Berzoini, will be re-elected national president, 
more than likely in the first round.  (Note: Three months ago, 
Berzoini disavowed any intention to seek another term as PT 
president, and Lula was openly supporting his foreign affairs 
advisor, Marco Aurelio Garcia, but the CM pushed back and forced 
Lula to accept Berzoini.  End Note.)  However, given the field of 
seven candidates, Berzoini could fall short of a majority and face a 
runoff against Jilmar Tatto, leader of the Sao Paulo city PT machine 
and an ally of former Mayor (now Minister of Tourism) Marta Suplicy. 
 Unlike Berzoini, Tatto can attract votes from the PT's leftist 
factions and tendencies.  He has also lined up the support of state 
legislator Rui Falcao and his "New Course" movement. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Contrary to press reports, Ribeiro asserted that federal 
deputy Jose Eduardo Martins Cardozo is unlikely to make it to the 
second round.  Cardozo is the candidate of Justice Minister Tarso 
Genro's "Message to the Party" faction (see ref B) but can expect 
support from no other group.  He hopes to show enough support in the 
party elections to boost his candidacy for Mayor of Sao Paulo, but 
Ribeiro thinks his chances are slim.  The other four candidates for 
the party presidency - Valter Pomar, Gilney Viana, Jose Carlos 
Miranda, and Markus Sokol - all represent small, left-wing 
tendencies and are not expected to be much of a factor except 
perhaps by making alliances to support a candidate in the second 
round, if there is one. 
 
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COMMENT 
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SAO PAULO 00000949  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Ribeiro is probably being disingenuous when he disclaims 
any intention of paving the way via his proposed plebiscite for Lula 
to seek a third term if the President decides that's what he wants. 
But the chances of Lula's so doing remain small.  A plebiscite would 
offer only moral support to the idea of amending the Constitution. 
Congress would still have to pass a Constitutional Amendment 
Proposal (PEC) by a three-fifths vote, twice in each chamber, before 
October 2009.  Right now the government is having trouble mustering 
the three-fifths vote needed in the Senate to renew the financial 
transactions tax (CPMF) for another four years, and the third term 
would be a much more controversial and emotional proposal given 
similar initiatives in Venezuela and elsewhere.  Lula also has to 
consider how a Constitutional battle and a third term might affect 
his legacy.  For now, Ribeiro and others in the PT appear merely to 
be keeping all options open while hoping a strong candidate emerges 
from within the party. 
 
¶9.  (U) This cable was cleared by Embassy Brasilia. 
 
WHITE