VZCZCXYZ0008
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSO #0891 3101607
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 061607Z NOV 07
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7648
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 8761
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 8420
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2939

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000891 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD 
 
DEPT PASS USTR 
 
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: WESTERN HEMISPHERE: VENEZUELA;SAO PAULO. 
 
 
¶1. "The Language That Chvez Understands" 
 
Center-right national circulation daily O Estado de S. Paulo 
editorialized (11/6): "A regime that permits a caudillo to remain 
perennially in power, deprives minorities and the opposition their 
fundamental liberties and allows a nation to be ruled without the 
necessary legal guaranties is a true dictatorship. A nation armed to 
the teeth without any plausible reason for that   represents a 
threat to its neighbors, regardless of the fact that the caudillo 
speaks about Latin American fraternity and solidarity.... Colonel 
Hugo Chvez, who this week became Venezuela's (perpetual) 
constitutional dictator, is preparing a military adventure.... It is 
not only Brazil that will be affected by Chvez's arms acquisitions. 
It is the entire region's strategic balance that will be altered. To 
suppose that Venezuelan forces would invade Brazil is as absurd as 
to imagine that the U.S. will invade Venezuela.... But Chvez has 
already said that he may intervene militarily in Bolivia to support 
Evo Morales' regime, and it is perfectly possible that he will 
occupy the Essequibo region in Guyana. One should not forget that 
there is a treaty allowing Venezuela to maintain military bases in 
Bolivian territory.... Chvez considers the Essequibo region part of 
Venezuelan territory illegally under Guyana's sovereignty. A 
military adventure near the Brazilian border would force the GOB to 
adopt a tough position - which could not be restricted to rhetorical 
condemnations in multilateral diplomatic fora.... Brazil will not 
stop the caudillo with soft words and appeals to reason. Chvez only 
understands one language. The GOB will do right, as announced a few 
days ago, in speeding up a program to reequip its Armed Forces 
providing them with the necessary means for national defense." 
 
¶2. "Armed Discussions" 
 
An editorial in liberal, leading national circulation daily Folha de 
¶S. Paulo (11/6) remarked: "The origin of Chvez's coming together 
with Russia's military industry is a reaction to the U.S. blockade 
denying acquisition of American arms by Venezuela. The U.S. veto, 
resulting from Chvez's childish attacks against the Bush 
administration, was another deplorable attitude adopted by the U.S. 
diplomacy in regards to Latin America. As happened in its shameful 
support of the failed coup attempt against the Venezuelan president 
in 2002, Washington now helped give Chvez an ideal pretext for his 
adventures.... Disputes with Colombia and, something more plausible 
- an intervention in Guyana, of which Venezuela claims approximately 
two thirds of its territory, would not be only a fable, but options 
available to Hugo Chvez. Venezuela's increasing arms acquisitions 
is already causing effects in Brazil. Concerns with its northern 
neighbor helped increase significantly the Armed Forces budget for 
next year." 
 
¶3. "Chvez Changes Laws To Perpetuate Himself In power" 
 
Business-oriented Valor Economico's editorial maintained (11/6): 
"Venezuela is quickly abandoning the last traces of democracy and 
marching towards adapting its institutions to President Hugo 
Chvez's authoritarianism and populism.... With the new 
Constitution, Chvez will be able to reelect himself indefinitely 
and each presidential term will be expanded from six to seven 
years.... Force demonstrations and intimidations coming from the 
Chvez administration include an arms race fed by petrodollars. The 
foreign threat justification represented by the U.S. is a mix of 
paranoia and political calculation. Armed to the teeth, the Chvez 
administration now enjoys an enormous domestic dissuasive power and 
a major source of diplomatic concern for his neighbors, beginning 
with Brazil.... Chvez took a vital step to install his absolute 
power in Venezuela.  The supposed Brazilian strategy of including 
him in Mercosul to moderate his radicalism did not produce any 
visible results. To insist on that, when he does not respect 
democratic formalities, is a mistake." 
White