VZCZCXRO9844
PP RUEHDU
DE RUEHSA #4088 3340748
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 300748Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2843
INFO RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN PRIORITY 5115
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN PRIORITY 9404
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0472
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS PRETORIA 004088 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/S 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SF
SUBJECT: ANC SUCCESSION - ZUMA LEADS IN PROVINCIAL COUNCIL 
NOMINATIONS 
 
REF: A. PRETORIA 3764 
     ¶B. PRETORIA 3816 
     ¶C. PRETORIA 3939 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Press reports indicate that ruling African National 
Congress (ANC) Deputy President Jacob Zuma won ANC 
presidential nominations in five of the nine Provincial 
General Councils (PGCs) held this past weekend, losing by 
only a small margin in several of the others.  Multiple 
sources report Zuma topping the nomination list in his home 
province of KwaZulu-Natal, as expected, plus the provinces of 
Mpumalanga, Northern Cape, Gauteng and Free State.  President 
Thabo Mbeki topped the list in his home province of Eastern 
Cape, plus North West, Western Cape, and Limpopo. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) In another surprise, the ANC Women's League also 
endorsed Zuma's candidacy in a 29-25 vote late on 26 
November, following ten hours of debate.  The ANC Youth 
League has long endorsed Zuma's presidential candidacy.  The 
South African Communist Party (SACP) and the COSATU trade 
union federation continue to strongly endorse Zuma, though 
they will not have voting delegates at Polokwane.  However, 
as members of the tripartite governing alliance, SACP/COSATU 
will send a 25-member, non-voting delegation to the 
conference, which will provide them with a platform for 
influence in pre-election candidate selection debates. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Based on what is known about allocation of voting 
delegates attending the ANC national conference in Polokwane 
December 16-20 (Ref B), the provincial and league results 
appear to give Zuma a slight edge.  His five provinces plus 
the leagues represent 2116 of the 4075 total delegates. 
Mbeki's four provinces account for 1893 of the remaining 
delegates, while the votes of the 60 NEC members and the six 
current ANC leadership positions remain a wild card. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) COMMENT:  This is a somewhat stronger showing for 
Zuma than was expected by most analysts heading into the 
PGCs, and the results have gained him considerable positive 
press.  However, these results are more indicative than 
predictive.  This is the first post-apartheid ANC vote where 
a clear consensus on succession has not been achieved in 
advance.  Party election officers are still negotiating the 
framework for election procedures in this climate.  There is 
no guarantee that each candidate will receive the votes of 
all branch and provincial delegates from the provinces that 
supported them this past weekend.  Most provincial nomination 
races were close.  Delegates will "vote their conscience" by 
secret ballot in Polokwane.  Delegates are not formally bound 
 
SIPDIS 
by their branch or provincial positions and may have 
competing loyalties and/or personal interests.  The horse 
trading, promises, inducements, threats and influence 
peddling that is expected will likely lead to more 
unpredictable results.  Zuma is heading into the national 
conference with good momentum, but it is still a very tight 
race and anything could happen on the floor at Polokwane. 
Zuma's decision to travel to India, England and the U.S. at 
this time will take him out of the fray for about one week, 
which may prove a tactical error as President Mbeki's 
organization will be pulling out all of the stops. 
BOST