VZCZCXRO6943
PP RUEHGR
DE RUEHSP #1106/01 3062014
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 022014Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY PORT OF SPAIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8778
INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3719

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT OF SPAIN 001106 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CAR and INR/IAA 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TD
SUBJECT: Elections: And the Winner is... 
 
REF: (A) Port of Spain 1030, (B) Port of Spain 1047, (C) Port of 
Spain 1077 (D) Port of Spain 1079 (E) Port of Spain 1090 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED; PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The ruling People's National Movement (PNM), the 
United National Congress (UNC) and the Congress of the People (COP) 
are campaigning feverishly, especially for marginal seats, in 
advance of the November 5 elections.  Major rallies will be held 
November 3 (the Rev. Jesse Jackson reportedly is the UNC headline 
speaker), with campaigns essentially shutting down on Sunday in 
advance of Monday's vote. The race remains unpredictable given poor 
and biased polling, the number of closely contested seats, the COP 
wild card, and the fact that opposition adherents - albeit split 
between two parties - probably outnumber PNM supporters.  Our best 
guess in an election that even local pundits are loath to predict is 
a PNM majority, perhaps in the mid-twenties, but below the 31 seats 
needed to change the constitution.  Unless the race is exceedingly 
close, the wait to see who will grab the reins of power will not be 
long.  Unofficial results are expected by 11:00 p.m. local time on 
Election Day.  The new (or old) Prime Minister should be officially 
named late the week of November 5 or early the following week.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
------------ 
Who Will Win 
------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Going into the final weekend of campaigning, PNM officials 
are publicly and privately confident.  The party's optimism is based 
on the large crowds it is drawing, problems in the split opposition, 
and its own internal polls.  We have been told by a senior party 
official that the PNM will win at least 26 seats.  A well-connected 
government official predicted low- to mid-20 seats to us and, 
despite his deep dislike of the UNC, he felt it would form the 
official opposition.  This official believes the COP will be lucky 
to get 2 or 3 seats as many of its supporters are returning to the 
UNC fold based on the perception that the new party is losing steam 
and cannot win. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Local political analysts are hesitant to make a 
prediction, but the consensus of those we have spoken with is that 
the PNM has 15 safe seats with an additional 9 marginal seats 
leaning its way; the UNC has 11 safe seats with leads in 3 marginal 
seats; and the COP may not win anything although they are 
competitive in the race for 3 marginal seats.  PM Patrick Manning 
and UNC leader Basdeo Panday have comfortable leads in their races 
to return to parliament; COP leader Winston Dookeran looks like a 
long-shot to win his race.  UNC hopes rest on an anti-Manning wave 
that draws votes from the COP and gives it a near sweep of marginal 
seats, allowing it to squeak through to victory.  For its part, the 
COP is hoping that revulsion among some over UNC antics and 
corruption allegations swing the tide it was riding earlier in the 
race back to it. 
 
-------------------------------- 
The Logistics of What is to Come 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) On Monday, 993,479 registered voters will be eligible to 
cast their ballots beginning at 6:00 am.  Voting to choose among the 
130 candidates will continue at 2,046 polling stations in the 41 
constituencies (districts) until 6:00 p.m. local time.  Each polling 
station will count the ballots before submitting the results to the 
Elections and Boundaries Commission.  According to a conversation 
with an editor of the local newspaper Newsday, there will be 
constant TV and radio reporting throughout the day.  He expects 
unofficial results by 11:00 p.m. The official results will be 
announced two or three days later. In the past, there have always 
been requests for re-counts of swing seats; this would cause a delay 
in announcing the official results. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Based on precedent, not law, the Prime Minister is named by 
the President three days after official results are declared.  There 
also is no constitutional provision as to how soon the Cabinet 
should be selected.  In the past, this has been done one or two 
weeks after the announcement of the election results, though some 
expect a much shorter time frame if the PNM again emerges victorious 
and if few recounts are requested.  Shortly after the naming of the 
cabinet, perhaps within a couple of weeks, Parliament will meet in a 
short session largely to organize itself. 
 
-------------------------- 
Comment: An Important Vote 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) This election is an important one for the citizens of 
 
PORT OF SP 00001106  002 OF 002 
 
 
Trinidad and Tobago.  Their country is a leader in the eastern 
Caribbean, CARICOM, and the economic powerhouse of, and energy 
security guarantor for, the region.  Whoever wins on November 5 will 
inherit a government flush with oil and gas revenues that can 
plausibly - as the current government has said is its goal - achieve 
developed nation status by the year 2020.  To get there, though, 
there are many hurdles to overcome and missteps are possible. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The outcome also is important to the United States. 
Trinidad, just off the coast of Venezuela, provides two-thirds of 
our LNG imports and roughly half our ammonia and methanol imports. 
It also is an active partner in the anti-drug and anti-terrorism 
battles.  Importantly as well, as host of the 2009 Summit of the 
Americas, the next government will play a large role in shaping that 
key hemispheric event.  We expect any of the three parties, should 
they emerge victorious, will be friendly and cooperative with us and 
maintain market-oriented economic development and sound 
macroeconomic policies, though both the COP and UNC have advocated 
slowing the pace of the current government's natural gas-based 
industrialization program. 
 
AUSTIN