VZCZCXRO5806
OO RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHOT #2016/01 3052004
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 012004Z NOV 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6824
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 002016 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT:  HARPER GOVERNMENT ADVANCES ITS AGENDA... FOR NOW 
 
REF:  A.  OTTAWA 1961 
 
--        B.  OTTAWA 1928 
--        C.  OTTAWA 1924 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: With the opposition Liberal party abstaining on 
another key confidence vote on October 31, the Harper government 
continues aggressively to push its policy agenda in Parliament.  Key 
legislation that Prime Minister Harper promised in the Speech from 
the Throne (ref c) - on terrorism, crime, and intellectual property 
rights, among others - should move forward quickly as the Liberals 
have similarly indicated that they would not block these measures. 
Prospects of an election before the December 14 Christmas recess are 
now virtually zero, although an unexpected snap vote is always in 
the realm of possibility.   The Liberals and other opposition 
parties will probably use the holidays to canvass around the country 
seeking the right issue on which to bring down the government and 
face the electorate, perhaps next year.  End summary 
 
LIBERALS AGAIN SIT ON THEIR HANDS 
 
¶2. (SBU) On October 30, the government delivered a voter-friendly, 
tax-cutting fall Economic Statement that included a cut to the 
national sales tax that the Liberals vehemently oppose, and then 
scheduled a snap confidence vote on October 31 to approve the 
Statement.  As with the final vote on the Throne Speech on October 
24 (ref  b), the Bloc Qubcois and New Democratic Party (NDP) voted 
against the motion, while the Official Opposition Liberal Party 
abstained en masse and allowed the measure to pass. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The Liberals had earlier also indicated they will not 
oppose the government's omnibus Tackling Violent Crime bill (ref a), 
and on October 26 acquiesced in a government motion to form a 
special legislative committee to speed the bill through committee 
 
hearings, likely without amendment, and report back to the lower 
house by November 22.   (In the previous session, the Liberals had 
vocally opposed provisions to tighten restrictions on dangerous 
offenders.)  Liberal leader Stphane Dion has further pledged not to 
oppose legislation to amend the immigration security certificate 
system to detain non-citizens on national security grounds (ref a). 
Liberal justice critic Ujjal Dosanjh separately indicated that the 
Liberals will approach "with no preconceived notions or bias" a bill 
to restore special powers in the Anti-Terrorism Act that lapsed in 
March due to lack of support from the Liberals and other opposition 
parties. 
 
HARPER TWISTS THE KNIFE 
 
¶4. (SBU) Dion again defended the party's abstention tactic by 
claiming that "Canadians do not want an election," which would mark 
the third federal vote in three-and-a-half years.  However, there is 
already grumbling within the Liberal party about Dion's lack of 
strong leadership and the new and apparently unprecedented practice 
of "whipped abstentions."   PM Harper taunted Dion in the Commons as 
the "King of abstention," while NDP leader Jack Layton has begun to 
refer to Dion as Harper's unwitting "coalition partner." 
 
UNLIKELY TO LAST 
 
¶5.  (SBU) All parties nonetheless appear to be watching for the 
right moment and best issue to trigger a new election, but obvious 
prospects of that happening in 2007 are now virtually zero, so 
strategists across the spectrum are looking at 2008 possibilities. 
The Liberals - having already effectively yielded on the Speech from 
the Throne, the economy/tax cuts, crime, and national security, and 
also likely to allow a new copyright bill to pass in November - now 
see the environment and use of the federal spending power in areas 
of exclusive provincial jurisdiction as potential issues, but the 
Liberals "own" neither of these files, nor are these issues proven 
QLiberals "own" neither of these files, nor are these issues proven 
vote-getters for them.  The creation of the Manley panel to review 
Afghanistan options has given the government at least three more 
months of breathing space on that contentious issue.   The Liberals 
generally score more highly among voters than the Conservatives on 
social policy, particularly child-care, and on aboriginal affairs, 
making these issues potential hills on which to take a stand, but 
they are not top-of-the-mind for the average voter. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  According to one respected pollster, the Conservatives 
desperately need to find an election issue that will appeal to 
uncommitted women voters if they wish to move from minority to 
majority status in the next election, but the key issues of concern 
to these voters - health care and education - are not natural ones 
for the Conservatives, or even primarily federal priorities. 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The lower house is scheduled for a six-week recess 
beginning on December 14, reconvening on January 28.  The most 
obvious possible trigger for an election is the federal budget in 
February or March.  However, parliamentary rules allot twenty-two 
days per calendar year among the opposition parties to debate and 
vote on a topic of their choosing.  The Liberals could theoretically 
 
OTTAWA 00002016  002 OF 002 
 
 
use one of these days unexpectedly to move a formal vote of 
non-confidence to defeat the government, or support the 
non-confidence motion of a third party.  It is possible that the 
government could then fall with a whimper rather than a bang on a 
minor detail or on an issue that no one can yet accurately foresee. 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  The Liberals in particular -- but also all other parties 
including the Conservatives -- will likely be in an intense 
listening mood in their constituencies over the holiday recess in 
order to pinpoint the issue that might best resonate with voters. 
They will also want to assess the patience of their workers and the 
public for maintaining the status quo for some time to come, or, 
alternatively, their enthusiasm for biting the bullet and facing 
elections.  The Liberals' decision may ultimately have more to do 
with their internal leadership dynamics, growing embarrassment at 
their Parliamentary impotence, or other internal party politics than 
with policy.  While the Conservatives currently are benefiting from 
the Liberals' stance as they advance their legislative agenda, their 
ambitions to form a majority government -- emboldened by continued 
good if not outstanding poll results -- will likely lead them to try 
to tip this balance by the velocity of their taunts against Dion. 
 
WILKINS